Up until today, my poor trading was only lack of gains — disparate returns amidst overall ebullience resulting in frustration. Today the chickens came home to roost, as I was dispatched to the tune of 4.3%. Such a set back places me down 5.5% for September and we’re just getting started. I can no longer take outsized risks and must protect the account from any further downside, while at the same time perform.
The overall tape was poor and trading stocks were discarded for waste. There are baskets I track inside SL and they were all down 3 to 4% for the session.
At the same time, bonds were up and defensive stocks green. Anything paying a dividend and consumer based was up. As such, I ended my trading session by clearing the decks and buying defensive stocks for tomorrow’s opening tick. I was conflicted by it — because we are oversold. There is a distinct chance we run tomorrow in a little mean reversion pin action. However in the off chance this does not come to pass, I believe we are now in a defensive posture, 62% cash.
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BACK in the saddle again.
I’m hearing reports from friends in manufacturing of widespread backlogs stretching out months. Up until the end of July, delivery was 2 weeks for most parts, but suddenly you cannot find supplies. This seems to be the status quo in automotive, electronics, electrical, appliances, etcetera etcetera.
I work in finance. But the thing we are financing isn’t getting restocked. Our contract originations are down 20% so far.
People who thought everything would be fine from shutting down GLOBAL COMMERCE because ‘muh dEmANd iS tHERe’ are fucking fools.
Underbelly of the market is weak, as evidenced by today’s mauling of growth stocks. However, large cap tech coupled with defensive dividend-paying names make sense if this market wants to go higher (which it will).