Post Bubble Market

Bubbles have popped. Shares of solar stocks have been pummeled into the ground, alongside a pastiche of alt energy and EV names, not to mention everything CHAMATH brought public. In the world of clowns, expect clownery. The latest bubble is pop is Bitcoin — off 50% from highs. We are now either mid- collapse to down 90% or perhaps the worst is behind us. I will not pretend to know where we are since the market is always up to new schemes and gambits. We take the market at its word every single day and listen to it carefully and try not to interpret things via our own biases.

Having said that, something are evergreen. Post collapse, people prefer to delve back into reliable growth names. In our market, that would be SAAS. Stocks like CRM, SHOP, and DDOG are very strong today because they’re real companies with real revenues and growth rates.

As I write this, Fed minutes are talking taper and markets are legging lower. This is yet another reason to be cautious since inflation is hot the Fed and their fucking mandate might tighten the money supply, which is bearish for stocks but you’ll later learn it can in fact be bullish. We will discuss at a later date.

Presently I am -150bps, back near session lows after buying the dip. I had been down just 60bps and was feeeeeeling real nice — but all of that has been washed away and the pangs and horrors of FOMC commentary have now soured my day.