iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,617 Blog Posts

THE ART OF THE DEAL

ALERT: The Fly’s mentoring service, The Capstone Programme, has launched. Our greatest product to date. Indeud.

I know this shit is serious to a lot of you — so I’ll reserve my bragging for Sunday night.

Here is how I am positioned. SOXS is a 15% MAX holding. TLT is 10%, LABD is 10%, and everything else 5%. I have 45% cash.

Apple is down $200 billion in market cap from the highs. Real money. But here is the actual position of the overall market, less the noise. It’s a lot of chop — transfixed inside of a FAGbox designed to kill people.

I suspect we break thru this box into the downside next week. At front and center of the catalysts is of course the China trade war, the Huawei CFO being held without bail and facing 30 years in prison on a sundry of charges, and of course a slowing economy. Last quarter, earnings grew at its fastest clip since 2010 — at +25%. Now we’re heading into a period of slowing expansion and possible deceleration. While the market trades cheap, at just 15x, the leadership in tech, AAPL and NVDA, have already pointed to considerable weakness and earnings revisions to the downside.

In other words, the E in the PE is uncertain. Ergo, we’re now probing, led lower by fear.

Bear in mind, at the very center of any bear market environment is credit. There is roughly $3 trillion + in BBB rated credits that could face a downgrade. This would lay waste to junkFAGS who’ve been relying on easy money for a decade to grow, buy back shares, and ingratiate themselves with bonuses.

If forced to condense all of my thoughts into a singular narrative, I’d argue you need to simply obey the trend. Remove yourselves from the bias of being long for the past decade and accept the idea that maybe, just maybe, things are about to change.

Today I was looking back at my old blogs, on my very first finance blog and recall the first blog I wrote that truly admitted to the possibility that the bull market of 2007 was coming to an end. Back then I was inspired by Cramer’s advice and his insight. He was tapped into the large bracket firms better than anyone in the media and truly was great in his commentary during the crisis. Even though I despised him, I respected what he had to say.

Keep an open mind. You might be proven wrong one day and perhaps saved by the ideas of someone who knows a little more than you.

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29 comments

  1. Lyndon Keltner

    Let’s re-elect Trump in 2020 so we can retest the March 2009 lows.

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  2. dragun

    All the zombie companies which should have died 9yrs ago will now get their comeuppance. The tide is receding.

    We’ll see accommodating the fed will be this time round to the same players.

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  3. s.k.

    Wow, what a blast from the past to read those comments. I was the only fucker that said we were heading to a hard crash. Check the isp location.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      Remember the VWAP dude? He made those technical analysis YouTube videos back then. He got bearish rather early in August 2007.

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  4. s.k.

    Everyone back then was pretty complacent relatively speaking, and now memories of ‘08 are so ingrained in the collective psyche that everyone is afraid of it repeating. My guess is that we at worst putter along with anemic growth and the market chops for a couple years.

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    • numbersgame

      Actually, August ’80 was when the sh!t hit the fan. Any finacial investemtn profesional who couldn’t read the tea leaves at that time is a Class-A moron. **Everyone** knew housing was overpriced, and a look at VIX from 2003-2007 is a giant, red, flashing sign that we reached the end.

      The only reason(s) the markert didn’t collapse faster was the tremendous amount of nno-capitalistic interference rulle-cahnges and bail-outs by the FED, SEC, FDIC, etc.

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  5. moosh

    That rick Ross tune link was censored af. What the fuck happened to technolgical advances at lightspeed clip? All that suddenly stopped? Looking at you fb and goog. We could use another little bubble to speculate into while we ride this bull, pronto.

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  6. moosh

    LeFly, if Jerome actually abandoned the fagPLOT this time around, which sector do you think would benefit the most? Biotech has been tempting me lately

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  7. joyous__ending

    This is not 2007/2008. Not even close…..
    In 2007 you could feel the real estate market coming apart in one’s own neighborhood.
    So we give up 20% and some sectors even worse.
    Be patient, play it small and wait 3-6-9 months, otherwise you will get chopped up.
    Fly is at an advanced level and can do what he wants.

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  8. chuck bennett

    You people are fucking crazy.

    This is geo political.

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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  9. Lyndon Keltner

    “On approximately June 16, 2015, Individual-1, for whom Cohen worked at the time, began an ultimately successful campaign for President of the United States.”

    If Individual-1 is indeed Hillary Clinton, we must LOCK HER UP. Now. BIGLY.

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  10. ferd

    Lyndon …you got your schadenfreude on big time; when mine crops up, it is tempered by this thought: Pence/Haley.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      Pence is going down with Trump. The Deep State knows he knows too much about the Trump-related felonies. Hence, no Pence–his political career is essentially over.

      Haley will ride the whole thing out but won’t get the nomination, ever. Even if she didn’t take down the Confederate flag after the Charleston black church shooting spree, she’d still be wayyy to exotic for the Confederate Republicans to make her the POTUS.

      The GOP nomination will most likely end up going to some loser like Romney again.

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        *too exotic

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        • txchick57

          Not “some loser like Romney” – Romney.

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            You will need an extremely weak Democrat (e.g., Hillary Clinton) to lose to Romney–Obama lost the white vote to Romney by 20 points and still kicked his Mormon ass *bigly* in 2012.

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        • Lyndon Keltner

          There was a very admirable Romney–Michigan Governor George Romney–who I would have voted for in 1968 (if I was around).

          He was the most unapologetic liberal on civil rights among the Republican candidates, more so than Nelson Rockefeller of NY.

          Needless to say, the Confederate Republicans (i.e., former Dixiecrats) cockblocked his candidacy very early on.

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      • numbersgame

        Lyndon ,
        off your blue glasses and take a look at waht really happenned on Friday. I hate to say it, but “No collusion” was the read from the Mannafort and Cohen docs submitted by Cohne.

        You think the American peopel will support an impeachment because of an illegal campaign contribution/bribe? Not a cahnce, even if it is 100% illegal and provable without a doubt.

        As Rep Jerry Nadler, incoming Chairman of the House Judicairy Committe, has stated, there are some crimes that are not impeachable and some acts that are technically legal but would justify impeachment.

        There is a big differnece between a President (or Presidential candidate) deceiveing his country to get elected (breach of campaign finance) and actively workign with a foreign power against the best interests of his country (collusion, conspiracy, treason).

        Of course, Mueller isn’t finished so he may yet connect the dots to Russia in a way that even Republcians can’t deny.

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        • Lyndon Keltner

          It doesn’t require any actual evidence of collusion for Trump to keep tarnishing the GOP brand. He is turning off more than more independents everyday–no sitting president ever lost his first midterm as badly (in both percentage terms, 8.6%, and popular vote, 9.736 million votes). I also do not doubt his ability to mess up the economy, at all. That’s how awesome a President he is. Now, he will most likely have some real legal problems to deal with by January 2021–the American voters are dumb, but not dumb enough to elect him again.

          This Trump shitshow is better Watergate, and the stench will last way longer.

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          • moosh

            It doesn’t require any actual evidence of collusion…exactly right. The dude went into presidency flipping the bird to deep state. Is there a precedent from another president ever doing that?

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            He can flip the bird to whoever or insert his button mushroom in any porn star. That’s not germane to the discussion.

            What has become abundantly clear is that he is by very far the most criminal president, and he will face the consequences of committing those felonies as his presidency ends.

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          • ferd

            Lyndon, you said Trump’s “by very far the most criminal president”

            Many agree with you. How far into national self-absorption we’ve fallen when we judge a man to be the worst of the worst because he is a sleazy low-life developer and whore-fucker, while the two presidents that immediately preceded him in office launched ILLEGAL wars of choice against countries that did not attack us – – killing, maiming, and displacing millions of “people of color”.

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          • ferd

            Bush, and especially Obama, comported themselves in a more dignified matter than does Trump. Unfortunately, optics rule the average emotion-driven, MSM-programmed, citizen – -ah hem. And the media hasn’t treated us to pictures of the horrors we’ve visited upon the countries we’ve invaded.

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  11. Lyndon Keltner

    “… we judge a man to be the worst of the worst because he is a sleazy low-life developer and whore-fucker.”

    Some others consider him the worst of the worst because of his bigotry and racism and his using them to stoke fear and hate. But I wouldn’t say he’s the worst of the worst.

    Andrew Jackson made his fortunate trading slaves, even most of his contemporaries had no problem with him doing such–notwithstanding the issues of morality and how few people considered slavery immoral. I don’t know if Trump would have done if he was around in the early 1800s, but I reserve judgement on how he would react to that hypothetically lucrative opportunity.

    Most people (should) agree that no one is above the law. The felonies that Cohen admitted to have committed *with Trump* (as the tapes/recordings and financially transaction records indicated) are worth four years of federal prison time, per the SDNY. The only reason Trump avoided the due process is that he is the POTUS, the same way Nixon got away with his role in Watergate.

    But the pardon that Gerald Ford gave him DID NOT (purposefully?) cover the treasonous acts that he committed in the Chennault Affair before he became president. Nixon would and should have been prosecuted for treason if the public knew about those facts before he died.

    I’m all for applying the same standards to all other presidents (including Bush and Obama who you mentioned). If any of them committed criminal acts that can be tried in a court of law, justice should be done. Again, Trump will not be able to get away with his felonious acts that much longer.

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  12. numbersgame

    Thanks fro the Nixon link..

    I’d dare to say that with the tremendous cyber vacuum the US has at their disposal, any collusion with Russia will be much harder to hide, especially when the ones doing the colluding have demonstrated as much carelessness as the Trumps. My only question is whether Mueller will uncover a smoking gun or just 100’s of finger-printed shell casings.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      Glad you got the info.

      Nixon remains the only president who has ever committed actual war crimes to this date. Because of his sabotaging Nam in 1968, the huge number of lives lost in the subsequent years would put him in the company of the worst war criminals of WW2.

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      • ferd

        Maybe so. Maybe it puts him in the company of Bushbama and
        their launching ILLEGAL wars of choice against countries that did not attack us – – killing, maiming, and displacing millions of “people of color”.

        …and Obama’s targeting and killing American citizens in Yemen without trial.

        All presidents do shit. It is the politics of the moment which determines whether they get away with it or not.

        What has changed since Nixon is that the tools of manipulation of public opinion have grown more sophisticated and the information that is fed to people is much more controlled – this is how Obama and baby Bush remain un-reviled in the eyes of the public.

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