iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,725 Blog Posts

NOT BUYING THIS SHIT

Everything about the open and the subsequent rally reeks of a bottom. You get an opening flush, the weak are disabled and killed, eaten by the strong — life goes on. But this drop in crude, although clownish in its demeanor and candor, is alarming.

There is a thousand reasons for the drop — but the only one that counts is economic weakness.

For the love of God, we’re about to get tagged with a $4 handle on WTI. How can you sit there idle?

I know, bull markets are often nourished with the blood of the coy and the stupid. This is how Commodore Vanderbilt made his fortune. But I must say, this does have a feeling of being too good to be true. I just got done selling out all of my stocks yesterday, so I think I’ll pass on buying the first dip.

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26 comments

  1. speerothekid

    We go higher from here

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  2. numbersgame

    Crude oil was pumped up because Republicans believed their own delusion that tax breaks for the rich would be beneficial to a developed economy with historically low costs of capital.

    Crude is now where it was before the tax hikes passed, and before Trump’s strong-man talk on Iran oil sanctions was revealed to be hot air.

    If AAPL holds $180, how do we not rally? Besides being the singularly most importan stock in both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 index, it is also the only FAANG that is not **up** for the day.

    On the other side, the fact that the FANGs are outperfroming suggests that (small) retail investors are buying this dip in a big way, which is a contratian sign for bulls.

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    • ferd

      Politicians were just feathering the nests of the already asset-rich, just as they have been through this entire expansion. Assuming they acted as they did because they thought the tax cuts would be “beneficial” to the economy over time is crazy talk.

      Separately, ignore Fly’s comment. He’s just having a bad day.

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        The GOP was entirely wiped out in the suburbs as the “tax cut” turned into a huge tax hike to the suburbanites (e.g., in NJ and Orange County).

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  3. Dr. Fly

    You see things politically, which means by default you’re an idiot.

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    • one-eighty

      Says one of President Space Case’s most ardent supporters. You are correct sir!

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    • numbersgame

      There is a differnece between seeing things through a political filter and observing things that are political in nature. For example, beleiving that tax breaks for the rich *always* or *never* benefit an economy is a “seeing things politically.*

      For example, iif business were eager to make investments in capital assets, R&D, infrastructure, expand production etc., but could not obtain funds to do so, then perhaps a tax break for investors would be beneficial. However, we are *presently* in an economy where the S&P had record earnigns and decided the best investemtn for that was buyign their own stock. We also have near-generational low interest rates. Anybody with a basic understanding on economics would realize that if these same business received more money, it would just be used to purcahse stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets solely for their potential capital gains.

      Now if you *still* can’t see the difference between what I wrote and a truely political PoV, then blame your parents.

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        Well done. Economics used to be known as political economy–to make your point more concise.

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  4. jbandy

    Well done. Don’t get sucked in by these “sucker’s rallies.” Everyone is just itching to call bottom and barrel into the market. Those guys need to die first before a true bottom will be in. That could take months.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      Once again a scalpers market given the volatility. Can be very profitable for the good algo-traders.

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  5. heckler

    At least you have that TMF Fly

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  6. acehood

    Next Fly post: Buying this shit

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  7. joyous__ending

    Turkey Gods!
    Why have you forsaken us!

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  8. soupbone

    Trump getting his way with oil prices, no doubt aware of how late cycle energy spikes can dash any hope of a soft landing.

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  9. ferd

    On 10/27/17, /cl launched out of a multi-year sym triangle when it broke $52.86. It just touched that launch point and is trying to bounce. Trying a long here with tight stop.
    .

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  10. roundwego

    Vix at highs of day. Yet no cum shot yet.

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  11. swordfish00

    As long as 2641 on the S&p holds. We should move higher.

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  12. swordfish00

    Buying here. We bounce hard Monday. You heard it here first. Just a retest of the lows nothing more. Eat a sandwich and load up on NFLX and AMZN. Thank me later.

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    • joyous__ending

      I did some buying, even if the bounce is feeble, have to buy something at this level for a long term hold.

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  13. the hungry dog

    Capitulation this is Not! Volumes to low. Next move depends on the Fed!

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  14. razorsedge

    Buying hand over figs.

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