iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,706 Blog Posts

$NVDA CRUSHED IN AFTER HOURS SESSION FOLLOWING DREADFUL NUMBERS

I was long both NVDA and SOXL heading into these numbers and I sold both in the after hours, a very rare thing for me because I believe both are heading much lower. The possibility that analysts will not downgrade NVDA is zero. Ergo, I’m fairly certain you’ll see further downside by tomorrow morning.

This is unfortunate, since I had a nice gain in SOXL and ended up selling for a 1% loss. My loss in NVDA was ~15%, an unacceptable drawdown, which prompted an immediate sale.

NVIDIA beats by $0.05, misses revenue estimates on gaming and datacenter; guides Q4 EPS and revenue well below consensus; adds to share buyback, raises dividend 7% (202.39 +5.20)

Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $1.97 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.92; revenues rose 20.7% year/year to $3.18 bln vs the $3.24 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Three market platforms – Professional Visualization, Datacenter, and Automotive – posted record revenue.

Gaming revenue was short of their expectations, and fourth quarter outlook is impacted by excess channel inventory of midrange Pascal products. They believe this is a near-term issue that will be corrected in one to two quarters, and remain confident in competitive position and market opportunities. Gaming revenue was $1.76 billion vs. $1.9 bln estimates, up 13 percent from a year ago driven by growth in gaming GPUs, and down 2 percent sequentially as gaming GPU growth was more than offset by a seasonal decline in SOC modules for Nintendo Switch.

Datacenter revenue was a record $792 million vs. $820 mln estimates, up 58% from a year ago and up 4 percent sequentially

Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of ~$1.32-1.49, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.01 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $2.65-2.75 bln vs. $3.4 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

In November 2018, the board of directors authorized an additional $7 billion under the company’s share repurchase program for a total of $7.94 billion available through the end of December 2022.

NVIDIA announced a 7 percent increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.16 per share. NVIDIA intends to return an additional $3 billion to shareholders by the end of fiscal 2020, which may begin in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019

Whether this miss derails the rally remains to be seen. My hunch says semis will lead tech lower today. We’re past the China trade war narrative, and the Fed. Now we’re talking about fundamental weakness in some key names, such as NVDA and AAPL.

I had a great day — but I’m already in the hole by ~1.5% in the AHs for tomorrow’s session.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

29 comments

  1. numbersgame

    Price discovery FTW.

    Fly, I guess now I’ll point out that your Sharpe basket is down -2.2% since 4/4/2018, while SPY is up 3.6% and QQQ are up 5.2%. If you average the two for a baseline and annualize the result, this gives your Sharpe Basket an alpha of -1100 basis points.

    QED

    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2018/04/04/advisorfags-get-sharpe-ratios-added-exodus/#comment-548617

    • 4
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • natehois

      #retardedmath

      • 0
      • 0
      • 1 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • numbersgame

        Those that have the capability of calculating the above result by themselves – such as Fly – know that the Numbers are correct. Ignorant fools like yourself can’t follow the math, so it’s not worth showing my work.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. Lyndon Keltner

    @juice For (still) supporting Trump, the said executive is either a white supremacist or someone who harbors them. While removing him from the company may seem intolerant to some, their decision was neither entirely unjust nor indecent. They sure have the right to decide what employees should be on their staff.

    @numbers 50% isn’t surprising to me. With the exception of 1996, white women voted Republican in every presidential election since Barry Goldwater. My long term goal is to make the GOP as anti-Medicare as they can be–for the policy results of reducing people’s life expectancy–in order to effect the desired demographic shifts more promptly.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • ironbird

      No one gives a flying fuck what mud country you are from. Go back. Then come back bleached you race baiting piece of shit.

      • 2
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • Lyndon Keltner

        Apparently they gave a fuck.

        I have been back to the (not so great) state of Georgia where I’m from and helping to fight a white supremacist named Brian Kemp.

        You’re welcome.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • cancel19

          Kemp is lightyears better than that commie fat cow from Minnesota you and Oprah wanted to stuff into the governorship of the Great State of Georgia.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • Lyndon Keltner

            He suppressed just enough minority votes this time to steal the election. The federal district court already ruled that he broke the law–the 1964 Civil Rights Act, no less.

            In another 4 years, he won’t be able to do it again as the state becomes greater/more “diverse” (i.e., another shade darker). So, enjoy him while you still can–his time in power is limited.

            • 2
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • cancel19

            At least there aren’t any pictures of him defiling and burning the Georgia State Flag like there is of Ms. Stacy Abrams.

            • 0
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • Lyndon Keltner

            She exercised her First Amendment rights by speaking out and burning one particular version of the state flag to which some sore losers (whose ancestors lost the Civil War) affixed the Confederate flag.

            I commend her for setting shit on fire without feeling the need to hide herself under pieces of white clothes.

            • 2
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • cancel19

            She brought nothing to the table good for Georgia. She is in favor of banning guns. The same guns the Republicans gave the Black Georgians to defend themselves from the Democratic KKK back in the day.

            • 0
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • heckler

        Ironman voted and then went back to his jalopy-ass rag for a gas cap car and changed shirts and put on a hat and voted twice because he believes 200%

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • Lyndon Keltner

          The pun upon the death of Maggie Thatcher was: “May the Iron Lady rust in piss.”

          She did ruin plenty of lives (of mostly the less fortunate) to earn that kind of hatred towards her.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • bronze28

            Lyndon; read your posts. You really are an obnoxious , self righteous jerk. Get well soon.

            • 1
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
          • Lyndon Keltner

            @braonze28 Thanks. That’s the whole point. I never meant to make friends on the Internet.

            • 0
            • 0
            • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • ferd

      TL;DR

      I’ll just assume it says “kill whitey”.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. jbandy

    The prediction for SOX tomorrow? “Pain”…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. chuck bennett

    Numbers ,

    Go back to the post on brexit. We are not finished yet

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. MSGT HARTMAN

    Georgia, Nothing but rednecks and hyper violent Hoolies, add a mix of snow birds who are astounded at the large population of blacks and there you have the New South.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • ironbird

      Dude. The South has always had blacks. They are Americans. It is the invasion of Latinos and true Africans and Asians that is changing the game. Throw in all those fags and game over.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • Lyndon Keltner

        I like you for being a tad more inclusive than the white supremacists. That makes you way more progressive than the “moderate” Republicans.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • heckler

        Throw in China buying up all the real estate and driving $100,000 cars into ditches like a school boy on a go kart.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. bronze28

    why would anyone buy in advance of earnings results? where is your edge in doing that? especially in this market where you get massacred for any and all reasons. You might as well go to a casino.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"