I’m Not Really An Oil Man — Sold Out of $GUSH

Here’s what I really think.

I think trading oil is very hard in the summer and fall and easier in the winter. I also think oil has zero momentum and is subject to too many geopolitical events, which make it ruinous to trade. I just sold out of the GUSH position I took last week, for a 3.2% gain.

While it felt good having something up with the market down, it was the right thing to do.

In my trading account, I’m now 85% cash. Luckily for me, my quant account is up 40bps today, totally immune to the sell off in the broader market.

As a point in fact, FAANG is lower by 2.5%, with the mega cap names getting crushed; but overall, the market isn’t too bad today. Breadth is 50%. Banks, commodities, and utilities are strong, mostly a defensive posture. It’s worth noting, old man stocks are higher by 1.2% today, as yields come in a little.

Bear in mind, higher bond yields compete against the old man dividend stocks. Whenever you get a break lower in yields, the PG and K’s of the world rally. If your base case is for lower yields, you should probably get long a basket of dividend payers, even some corporate and munis.