iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,593 Blog Posts

What Can Go Wrong Post Elections?

The more I think about it, the more I want the democrats to take the house. First of all, don’t come to me with your political opinions about saving the republic. I don’t give a shit about that. I care about saving myself, family, and you guys.

Markets love, like really jerk off to, gridlock. It means nothing radical will happen and Washington will be crippled to reform. In other words, we’ll stay the course of a long term ruinous economic scheme, literally designed to crack asunder and plunge everyone into fire. But that’ll probably take another 50-75 years from now.

We have lots of wiggle room.

If republicans win, markets will likely go up.

If democrats win, markets will likely go up.

In other words, we probably can’t lose here, so then why am I so god damned risk averse now?

I think it has something to do with my recent gains, and now seeing those same stocks barrel lower. It’s having a psychological affect on me, making me feel the need to avoid being exposed. However, I should probably be doing the exact opposite of that now, shouldn’t I?

Lots of shorts are teeing up to be roasted tomorrow, getting into positions in anticipation of something happening.

WHO GIVES A SHIT?

I’ll tell you what. Let me eat something and have a strong cup of black coffee and mull it over for a few hours. I’ll get back to you with something later on today.

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18 comments

  1. numbersgame

    If Dems take *both* houses, expect a rebalancing of the tax burden back towards the historical average: away from the middle class and towards the rich and corporations. This will cause a sell-off as asset owners lock in gains at the lower (current) tax rates.

    This logical sell-off will further sour investor setiment, which is the primary driver of market momentum -> retest the lows.

    The other risk probability is if the R’s keep both houses: expect more deficit spending and another announced tax cut -> market expectations rise. Trump already announced a cut, so he will push for it to save his butt. However, it will be MUCH harder for Republicans to re-jigger the budget to accompany a second massive tax cut, so once tax cut talks start to takeoff (mid-to-late 2019), the ensuing rally should be sold as there is a good probability the second tax cut won’t go through.

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    • ferd

      And if the likely scenario plays out …with the Dems taking the house but not the senate… perhaps Trump will seek to juice the economy with an infrastructure spend because he won’t be able to get another tax cut through the legislature but he’ll still need to provide a new crack infusion so that the reset doesn’t happen on his watch.

      Separately, I have to say in response to your observation that the Repub’s policies would continue to seek to concentrate wealth into the hands of the already-asset-rich, it was under Saint Obama that the Bernanke-Holder wealth concentration and get-out-of-jail-free policies took place.

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      • acehood

        Yeah Bernanke only saved the world from another Depression.

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      • s.k.

        I think technically the wealth transfer occurred under Bush-Paulson with TARP.

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        • ferd

          That too (BTW, prior to the FED gig, Bernanke was baby Bush’s Chairman of Council of Economic advisers). But it was post Lehman where the Bernanke FED pumped money into the criminal banks and bankers and moved us to years of negative real rates in order to pump-up asset values at the expense of the unwashed and of future prosperity.

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      • numbersgame

        You can’t blame the Obama admin for the wealth concentration efects, but you can blame them for not doing anything to stop it (Too Big to Jail).

        TARP was absolutlely necessary to rescue the US economy, but certain bank bondholders should have been wiped out (like GM’s bailout)

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      • numbersgame

        Also, Trump and the R’s have been playing for win-lose, not win-win scenarios ever since McConnel because Majority Leader. The Dems are now palying that same game.

        With a split Congress, infrastructure will only happen as a token: a House Bill that Dems know Trump won’t sign, or some tweet from Trump about the Dems not wanting to do infrastructure, just like how the immigration debate has been going (Trump separates kids and blames Democrats for it).

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  2. acehood

    Fly you only drink dark roast?

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  3. ironbird

    Could be time to look up caravan invasion plays. This is some serious shit,

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  4. roundwego

    2pm sell off?

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  5. chuck bennett

    2pm melt up

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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