We’ve all been having a nice time in the market — drunk from the gains and the excess of avarice. But is now a good time to recoil, spit back into the backwash of yesterday’s market winners and take up a new avocation? Perhaps shuffleboarding?
Look at the chart of the VIX and notice how this level is pretty much bottom for the past 5 years. Complacency is at a low point and markets an ebb tide.
My last foray into VIX was via XIV and I got wiped the fuck out clean in it, thanks to not having time to have read the prospectus. On page 147, it clearly stated buyers would get swallowed whole by giant pelicans should the index move higher in any meaningful way.
Although I’m reticent to act upon this, would it be wise, perhaps, to take a step back from high octane balls to the wall earnings plays?
Asking for a friend.
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no
So good to have such an expert on VIX TITS in here like you.
isthisthetop.com
#Bearish
Not yet.
No bc too obvious
I bought VXX the past two days, not cause I expect the end. Just nice to add it this low just in case with substantial longs, VIX 14, 15 (intraday) between now and Labor Day, easily happen.
XIV lolz.
Remember when you pulled a CAP and offered your head if the market traded lower? We all know XIV was simply karmic retribution for reneging on that wager.
VIX is set to rally first half of August. It’s a buy until Trump and China come to the table.
Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) tweeted at 9:44 am on Wed., Aug. 08, 2018:
here’s all instances where $VIX closed below its lower daily BB and $SPX closed above its upper daily BB and > 200 day sma, since 1990 (overlapping excluded).
T+5’s only higher 3 of the last 10 here, but the 7 losers are a scratch and 6 of the 7 losers were the higher T+20. https://t.co/PfWOCd8DM8
(https://twitter.com/SJD10304/status/1026977488906272768?s=09)
Farmers and cowboys have a saying when something odd happens. We need to wait. Fucking crops or cows are probably dead and gone.
The uvxy prospectus is for faggots, fyi.
Fly: I got smoked by a couple VIX ETF/N’s too. Bluntly, don’t buy them no matter what the VIX is doing. They are built to separate (even smart) investors from their money. NONE of them accurately match the VIX. (For example, you bet correctly, the VIX rises 20% and your VIX ETF rises….8%. I’ve tried several of them.)
Now, onto your question: I could see a 5%-8% drop in either August or September, and then a rise into year end. BUT that’s pure prognostication. Markets rarely do what most people “think” should happen. Anyone who claims to know what VIX, or the Markets, will do is either fool or liar. Watching the VIX is ONE indicator, but rarely prescient.
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” John Maynard Keynes
Peace
Papa Fly, I like the UVXY at these levels its always good for a $2-$3 pop on some shitstorm of news. I like the safety net ya heard!