iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,447 Blog Posts

VIX NERDS GET IN HERE: Is the Market Ready to Drop?

We’ve all been having a nice time in the market — drunk from the gains and the excess of avarice. But is now a good time to recoil, spit back into the backwash of yesterday’s market winners and take up a new avocation? Perhaps shuffleboarding?

Look at the chart of the VIX and notice how this level is pretty much bottom for the past 5 years. Complacency is at a low point and markets an ebb tide.

My last foray into VIX was via XIV and I got wiped the fuck out clean in it, thanks to not having time to have read the prospectus. On page 147, it clearly stated buyers would get swallowed whole by giant pelicans should the index move higher in any meaningful way.

Although I’m reticent to act upon this, would it be wise, perhaps, to take a step back from high octane balls to the wall earnings plays?

Asking for a friend.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

14 comments

  1. steveplace

    no

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. probucks

    #Bearish

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. bravo

    Not yet.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. acehood

    No bc too obvious

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. joyous__ending

    I bought VXX the past two days, not cause I expect the end. Just nice to add it this low just in case with substantial longs, VIX 14, 15 (intraday) between now and Labor Day, easily happen.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. dae42

    XIV lolz.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. s.k.

    Remember when you pulled a CAP and offered your head if the market traded lower? We all know XIV was simply karmic retribution for reneging on that wager.

    VIX is set to rally first half of August. It’s a buy until Trump and China come to the table.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. bintercorp

    Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) tweeted at 9:44 am on Wed., Aug. 08, 2018:
    here’s all instances where $VIX closed below its lower daily BB and $SPX closed above its upper daily BB and > 200 day sma, since 1990 (overlapping excluded).

    T+5’s only higher 3 of the last 10 here, but the 7 losers are a scratch and 6 of the 7 losers were the higher T+20. https://t.co/PfWOCd8DM8
    (https://twitter.com/SJD10304/status/1026977488906272768?s=09)

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. ironbird

    Farmers and cowboys have a saying when something odd happens. We need to wait. Fucking crops or cows are probably dead and gone.

    • 0
    • 2
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. acehood

    The uvxy prospectus is for faggots, fyi.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. rpavlik1

    Fly: I got smoked by a couple VIX ETF/N’s too. Bluntly, don’t buy them no matter what the VIX is doing. They are built to separate (even smart) investors from their money. NONE of them accurately match the VIX. (For example, you bet correctly, the VIX rises 20% and your VIX ETF rises….8%. I’ve tried several of them.)
    Now, onto your question: I could see a 5%-8% drop in either August or September, and then a rise into year end. BUT that’s pure prognostication. Markets rarely do what most people “think” should happen. Anyone who claims to know what VIX, or the Markets, will do is either fool or liar. Watching the VIX is ONE indicator, but rarely prescient.
    “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” John Maynard Keynes
    Peace

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. mrcharlie

    Papa Fly, I like the UVXY at these levels its always good for a $2-$3 pop on some shitstorm of news. I like the safety net ya heard!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"