I’ve just been consulted as to the current state of my holdings as being “somewhat dire” and “unsustainable.” I then reached out to an industry expert who relayed to me some analysis on growth stocks as being “uninvestable”, “merely shells built upon rocks” that were only good when they were going up. Now that they’ve gone lower, and continue to do so with vigor, they shall continue to go lower.
Do you follow me champ? Good.
To find the true value of you securities, you need to take the Mr. Wonderful approach to its balance sheet and ask “how much does this company earn?”
For example, if the CEO of Yelp, Jeremy Stoppelman, went on Shark Tank and asked Mr. Wonderful for a bridge loan, Mr. Wonderful would ask “how much money do you make?” Jeremy would reply “zero.” After hearing those words, Mr. Wonderful would say “you have a good website, but a bad business. It’s worth zero. I am out.”
DATA is making a little bit of money, so it might be worth, say, $3-10 per share. But FEYE and its 6 billion dollar market cap of madness, it is worth a donut, a big round zero. Their products might be good and their growth “cool,” but they are losing money. Therefore, ergo, their NAV is $00.00.
Moving on, SPLK is worth $00.00 and WDAY is worth a touch over $100 million, which is over $13 billion less than its current market cap.
In other words, my holdings are very bad, especially bad actually. I still own IFON and they are making money, so they are worth more, mind you, than YELP and FEYE combined, despite having just a $40 million market cap. My point is, all of these names that have losses are on their balance sheets are worth no more or less than zero.
It’s also worth mentioning, iBankCoin is a very profitable organization, with gross margins in excess of 90%. We, in fact, are worth more than YELP and might make a tender offer (of $00.03, how generous of me!) for the entire company, very soon.
FYI: If you’re thinking about buying stocks now, don’t. Tomorrow is Friday and no one wants to get long over the weekend. Who knows what will happen on Saturday and Sunday. Then we will get the classic “black monday” 15% gap lower. So, if you’re gonna buy, do it then for the Tuesday-Wednesday bull market.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I sense some sarcasm.
I want in on that.
haha. our fearless leader is starting to lose it
Really chubby? I think it is amazing how he keeps his sense of humor and cool head even when he is down. Always humorous, always honest. You know the true color of a man by how he behaves in hard times, not easy ones.
i enjoy it as well. keeps things like in the midst of atrocity.
I will buy iBC IPO hand over fist
Inspiring.
Even if YELP has great earnings, what do you expect? Do you expect stock reaction to be any different than the likes of FB and NFLX? nice gap up initially only to be dragged down. (FB about flat but NFLX well below pre earnings price.) I consider both FB and NFLX better companies than YELP so i see it almost as a no-win situation for YELP.
Remember when FB was $20?
sadly chub is right. time for the market to get mauled…it’s 3:30 after all
After reading this blog for many years, I know that The FLY has the knowledge and experience to fully understand the situation with these momo stocks. You have seen this before, many times, and know how this ends. Now the decision pending is what course of action to take. Good Luck
yeah, it ends very badly for bulls
YELP is dead. Its a valuable company, no doubt. Maybe worth a billion, on the generous future prospects of finding a way to monetize so much traffic.
But their earnings growth is bought and paid for in the most brutal and economically unsustainable of ways. They scale human call centers to relentless bully smalll businesses into advertising. The lifetime value of those sales generally doesn’t cover the cost of the sales in the first place.
Thus, you can fantastical looking revenue growth, but no real sustainable economic engine, and no long term prospects for profitability other than “hope.”
And “hope” is, indeed, probably worth a billion in this case.
EPS dont matter anymore, just how cool a company is. period.
Today’s post is brought to you by the Walking Dead
Did you find your castrated penis and put in on ice? Maybe you could find a good surgeon to repair it one day, albeit quite smaller than before.
Good look with your 3 year short of the greatest bull market in recent history.
A bit grumpy today?
I’m fine
Pfft. IFON isn’t even down today. Clearly no growth there.
Let’s franchise the ibc business model. Mr Wonderful and I can help you with that for a 5% royalty on membership fees. Do we have a deal?
THE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT FB AT $20 ARE SO STOOPID. I CAN’T WAIT UNTIL IT GOES TO $0. BAHAHAHAHAHA WO BUYS A STOOPID WEBSITE WITH PICTURES HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
JULES, NO HOMO
SENT FROM MY NOKIA 100
Much more STOOPID if they bought at 17 and change.
Yup, just ‘Got Damned'(sic) Stoopid
This is always an idiots defense. Look sooz it’s great that you have a wonderful but imaginary cost basis on FB. FB is actually a real company. They make money. However, assuming a stock is only good bc your cost basis is lower than the current print is, well, it’s fucking moronic. Let’s forget that it’s FB, as they are a real company. Let’s pretend it’s another tech company with the imaginary ticker EYEF. Just bc you are in lower and have profit today doesn’t change the fact that RIGHT NOW the market is telling you it doesn’t care about growth. Do you know how I know this? I know this because stocks w/out earnings are now trading 50% lower than 1qtr ago when earnings did not matter.
So please continue to brag about your make believe cost basis, and judge a company only by the last print vs your entry.
Gary kaultbaums Neanderthal Forehead,
Thanks for your insight.
No complaints here.
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AAPL = Hanging Man candle !
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So, you’re saying I should short all of these then? Consider it done, how can I lose!
Great post.
Dat “attach rate” tho -.-
Fly you forgot $AMZN, a company truly worth $0 Canadian dollars.
FB is the tell for overpriced tech momo stocks. If it can’t close the week higher than when it blew out earnings then YELP, FEYE, DATA, SPLK are worse off. FB is back below where it closed bef earnings – $61.24
Fuck you, I am Jesse Livermore.
^
Awesome! He lives!
I thought you blew your brains out in a bathroom.
Coat closet
That’s right at the Stork Club in New York
You are a foul mouthed imposter.
well that is the rub.if you don’t agree
with the fly then short his positions
and see how that works out.problem is the
U.S is growing an is going to for along
time and time is on his side.my guess he is
fucked for the summer but recovers in the fall.
What’s disconcerting is that you are being sarcastic when what you wrote is actually true
Is Ibankcoin as an enterprise actually profitable, or just the separate subscription services?
I can see the subscription services being quite profitable with high margin but I thought you mentioned earlier the site makes almost nothing after server expense
I hope “Zuck” and Sheryl get caught in a sex scandal over the weekend.
pervert
What’s your point?
adversity is certainly bringing out an interesting side of Senor Tropicana
this blog has turned into shit.
it hasn’t turned into shit, it has moved on. remember ass napkin mike? there will be the good and the questionable at any time.
I’m back minus my penis!!
your avatar is also missing..
It was a very good day in the land of milk n’ honey — aka BRAZIL.
The waters here are very, very nice…
YELP will take months to recover. Hasn’t even bottomed.
Oh boss, so glad to see my buddy Kevin on your front page.
Thanks for that..
PS: long SINA FEYE DATA ISRG JOEZ CREE now
Do I smell a bit of capitulation? Or average down more? Le $FEYE
$FEYE needs to get into single digits before it’s even remotely interesting.
I’m assuming you guys saw CSIQ. My BIB didn’t go down much today but CSIQ rocked. I might be taking of “The Fly”s domain and managing his money for him. +90% in 2013 and now up 19% in 2014. All on the back of huge years in 2009, 2010, and 2011 (with a flat year in 2012). It’s a bull market indeed.
taking over that is 🙂
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
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… sorry “Jenny” … BIB, IBB etc…
are about to revisit recent LOWS !
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Don’t be sorry because you’re wrong
Blog it every day, 365, for years. Then we’ll talk, bimbo. Though it’s a near-lock you have a small penis.
Holly Molly! Did you just say, “We, in fact, are worth more than YELP and might make a tender offer (of $00.03, how generous of me!)”?
If I buy a tenth of YELP at the open, it can’t be front-running can it? Surely that nonsense doesn’t apply for us billionaires?
My order is in!
Can not shake the feeling that all this fuckery is planned. Some blow out of the speculator pleb just like 2011.
The loons are loose. Losing it just looking at this crap.
Gentlemen!
We stand on the precipice of a great and endless cliff! One carved by the intense cigar fires of that bearded demi-god himself, The Clam, nee Herr Bernanke.
The hens, they have come home to roost. The Bernanke did his job and he did it wit gusto. His mandate, which he accepted mightily, was to recapitalize the great financial institutions of America at any cost, such that America could continue to rule this here great world of ours through financial machinations to unwieldy and complex for the common man to begin to understand.
Now, his job done, The Bernanke has ridden off into the sunset. The Great Hegemonic Rulers of our global capital infrastructure have been restored and can easily ride out the calamities to come (no doubt strengthening their position in the process).
We have entered what some day will be known as “The Great Unwind,” and it will surely be as calamitous to the common man as owning FireEye during the Ides of March was for Senior Tropicana.
There is only one way to save yourselves and your families……guns, ammo, food stores, and a healthy serving of TZA.
Mark the words of the HuggieBear on this hear day, for he hath spoken!
I predict you will be smoked out before the 4/30 Fed Meeting statement release.
My dear sir, what you fail to understand is that the fed finally has their hands tied. Inflation is here, the job market is tighter than it appears unless you are truly a half-wit.
Moreover, their job is done.. They have recapitalized the great financial institutions. They will not stop “The Great Unwind.”
I only worry about one thing, a grand jobs report. But i doubt that is in the offing.
Oh please. You really think the job market is tight? And inflation is an issue? Really? Then why is the ten year at 2.6x?
I believe you believe what you want to believe. Meanwhile the market will be at new all time highs by next week. Bank on it.
Nailed it!
Back to your cot in the favela. Stop drinking the water in Brazil, you don’t have the brains God gave lettuce
The job market is tight. It really is. Inflation is BECOMING an issue…..the fed isn’t going to wait until its raging.
Seriously, do you not have any idea as to how the fed anticipates inflation and reacts in advance (or, theoretically, is supposed to?)
The world sucks if you used to sew garments or put together childrens toys on an assembly line, but I am seeing wage inflation go crazy. Right now its pushing 7% – 10% per annum here in the mountain states.
Hear, Hear!
Storm the gates! after my nap
this damn cadillac ad
Drivel, fucking drivel. Some of us would like some real insight on why the fastest growing segment of the market has been machine gunned to shreds in a month with no material changes to the economy and without earnings disappointments to at least hang our hat on. Meanwhile the major averages remain relatively intact. Every message board sage has jumped on the “it was always a POS pump and dump scheme”on a rocket sled to 0 bandwagon without any thoughts for the real effect that would ultimately have. As high growth Rome burns, CNBC gives us inane comparisons to the tech bubble while focusing on ..,.not the Nasdaq but the S&P 500 looking at MSFT, ORCL and CSCO 14 years ago.
It is theater of the absurd.
I know parabolic moves get corrected, but this is ridiculous and feels very orchestrated by some cabal of hedge funds. Those of us long feel like we have been Einhorned.
Either orchestrated or the bottom is about to fall out of the market. This retarded rotation into no growth is a hide trade. Hide from what?
There are a lot of growth stocks that are doing quite well still
Ones with dividends. or linked to WW3. Depends on your definition of is. What is growth? Thinking Russian sanctions are coming that kill the economy or all of this is fuckery.
Frankly I’m not buying into those explanations and it doesn’t sound like you are either.
Growth stocks (whose growth I suppose is subjective) that have margins, not too expensive, still near highs:
Energy names (Oil and Gas E&P) I figure this is about operating leverage check some names like (big names like CLR, ECA, etc, small names REI, SEP, TPLM) all double / triple digit growth
Lots in the Health space, harder to tell what’s real, but look at FRX, AGN both acquired recently. Things get bought for ridic valuations all the time, but it shows that there is upside to names that have strong franchise / margins
BABY – double digit sales and EPS growth, 2x p/s
Tech:
SNDK, NXPI, semis. SNDK has grown margin almost 25% in last few qtrs. Same w GRMN, + all only 3-4x sales
Cyclicals:
CTRP, WBC, RAD, All of the Airlines, Auto Makes (TATA) auto parts (MGA, LEA, MPAA, TEN)
— no DD done on any of these, just that is the level of research here is plug in revenue growth and pick the top names akin to the selection process for these software plays that are now being dismantled, these stocks fit that bill and are still at the top of the range
U and your posts are the only Fuckery in this world. Fuck you.
You are Fuckery.
After reading all of your posts, you should consider putting your mouth over a gaspipe or find like a tall bridge to jump off of. You contribute nothing. Less than zero are your posts. You are a dead troll zombie.
Right on, that effing Michelle Caboosa Carbonate Cornholer really shrinks my pecker
so the move up, that was just as fast, and occurred with no meaningful change in the economy? that was ok and rational, right? FEYE went from 45 to 95 in two months. And in almost two months it’s back at 45. Why is only the down move absurd? As I keep saying, these stocks are simply back to where they were on Jan 1st. It’s not even may yet. And I’m assuming that most on here getting torched in FEYE have done zero work. If you had, you would realize the move up was the irrational one. A promotional CEO who overstates his TAM by 1000% and whose pricing will evaporate in 24 months. The cabal are the analysts that suckered people into buying this p.o.s. At some point I’m sure these have a vicious bounce, but from what level I have no idea. There is no valuation support for FEYE for another $25 down at least.
I vote Mark’s comment for the most intelligent explanation I’ve read on these story stocks bar none.
Thank you for sharing that insight, though don’t expect this crowd to think much of it
Excellent
There is much sage commentary on that question. Esteemed ladies and gentlemen can be found with whatever learned opinion you wish to read up on. Confirm your own bias at your leisure. Do a basic internets search and there is a wealth of information available.
Cabrera …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mK3iSglbZUM
Bottoms fall out when the retail investor is “all in”and is looking at buying these stocks at the top. The hedge and HFT guys have run off the retail investor to whom they would sell to at a top. The message board crowd (a contrarian indicator) wants to short these names. This is more like an orchestrated re-set so that after they walk it down, they load up to re-ride back up. It is that double top fail to make new highs in these names that normally would invite this level of shorting and cynicism. We have not had that with the growth names yet. Einhorn can sight bubbles, but historically there is a re attempt got new highs
Pretty sure a lot of the plebs around here are retail. Do you think they are in?
Totally agree with your comment. The fuckery is big this time.
Plebs? your a stinkin roach, indeud!
You Sir no nothing.
Mark, I genuinely appreciate you comments and agree in part. I own FEYE and did do some homework. I seriously considered the Morgan Stanley analyst evaluation parameters. His DCF model would have FEYE priced much higher. Comparing PEs would have it where it is to lower compared to mature enterprise software companies. I did not buy at the top, but today was very frustrating when FB and AAPL crushed #s and earnings overall have been fairly good.
Db,
The problem is a name like this will trick you with the initial numbers. They will grow super fast in the beginning because the get all the low hanging fruit of very, very large enterprise customers that can purchase their product for the outrageous price they charge. When that runs out, the music stops. They charge 100’s of percent more for their product than the competitors. FEYE 100% has the best product out there, but for how long? and it’s not a fully integrated security system. it’s just a piece, which is a huge pain in the butt. IMO, the business is not workable long term. full disclosure, i am not short. i was at $80 and covered fearing a bounce that never came. If the competition comes up with something even remotely as good, FEYE is gone.
really refreshing to read quality research, thanks again for posting your thoughts
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… research schmesearch !!!
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Any “chart monkey” equipped with just a copy of …
…Technical Analysis For Dummies
… would’ve / should’ve pulled the plug on these names weeks ago !
—–
That said … who among us has NEVER rode a stock LOWER ?
I suspect NONE !
Hindsight is 20 / 20 … so easy to sit there … anonymously … and throw feces !
.
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… not YOU necessarily … But, generally !
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Oh, I fully agree with you on all counts Alf.
What I meant by the research comment was more along the lines of “necessary skepticism”
Great points Mark, However if FEYE “100% has the best product out there” and is now trading 15X 2014 revs with exceptional growth in the sector surely there is some value down here. FEYE got ahead of itself the most but to DB’s point there is no way for the big data and cloud names to sell-off like this. It’ not like it was one stock it was the entire sector.
Does anyone know if Apple makes real money?
Apple makes money primarily through US tax avoidance….other than that, they are breakeven.
You sir. are a true troll. IE sack of shit.. and a purveyor of idiocies, designed to rob humans of their coins.
Back to the favela you piece of shit
How is the gunfire in Brazil Huggie? Get much sleep? Bet the ocean is real clean too! Buenos Notes!
How low is your IQ? Does Apple make money? Hello Sperm, you just won the most stupidest piece of shit on the internet today!
You have just availed yourself as the “most ignorant human of the 21′ century!
Any one who posts ” the bottom is about to fall out” is to be deemed a worthless sack of shit. They are trolls.. trying to steal you monies.
Thanks Jules. Mark, you assume FEYE could quickly be supplanted. Is that not true for all tech? Why did ORCL, AAPL, CSCO survive and many others did not? That has always been the game – picking the survivors who excel and run the others out of the market. How many timed did the market write off Jobs and AAPL (mp3 players?). Jules brings up a great point about the sector being crushed and in very short order with no news. Your $80 short would have been an awesome call. I hope my upper 50’s call will ultimately be good as well.
Cheers
Let it be know, to all readers of financial blogs including IBANKCOIN, the most illusive of all, that there is a devils troll who goes by “Ironbird” that this piece of human sewerage is out to steal your portfolio with tales of death and destruction, (never supported with data). BEWARE!
the market is fucked: THE LAST OF THE LAST OF THE LAST OF THE RED LINES:
John Kerry Just Gave Russia A Final Warning
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-kerry-statement-ukraine-russia-putin-2014-4
HEY AH ANYONE GOT SOME KETCHUP?
The Market is not fucked. You are fucked.. ba bye!
Ironbird… Einhorn? Has the devil showed himself?
Let me axe you, anyway….what kinda name is “gianni boy”…who’s boy are you, anyway, boy?
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… “Gianni Versace” ???
Wait … he’s DEAD !!!
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yeah, but, maybe he was “Gianni’s Boy” at one time, if you know gianni and know what i mean
GIMO ftw! Down 21 in FEYE up 1.80 in GIMO. Gotta be in to win.
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Sir Fly, please create a NEW blog … If for no other reason than to supplant that front page pic of “Satan” !!!
That guy is creepin’ me out !!!
.
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… just read his Wiki page … pretty impressive !
Sorta reminds me of Barry Dillar’s long lost twin !
.
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… ah hem “Diller” !
🙄
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“Satan?” You give him way too much credit. He’s just a blowhard TV personality who got lucky once. I’ve watched him for years on Dragon’s Den and his business acumen is only a small fraction of the other dragons.
O’Leary is a donkey !
Fly, I want you to take a look at a daily chart of BTU from 2009 to today. From 2009 to 2011 it had a huge run up of over 400%. Then, study the decline. This is how all those momo stocks are going to look over time. I sure hope you aren’t going to get stubborn to the point where price decays over time and you are down big…..
I have met the fly in real life. He is polite, soft spoken, and gay friendly.
so, were you the hammer or the nail
http://ibankcoin.com/mr_cain_thaler/2014/04/24/enough/
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“Man is the only animal that blushes … or needs to !”
~ Mark Twain ~
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Think about it !
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Alf needs a tab….
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… this whole unfortunate “mess” … and it IS a “mess” (for some, at least) … should be a “cautionary tale” …
It don’t matter who tha fuck you are !
It don’t matter who tha fuck you THINK you are !
SOMEWHERE … out there … there is a DRAWDOWN with your name on it !
—–
It is NOT fuckin’ kewl to relish in another trader’s difficulties !
KARMA is a BITCH !!!
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wow, some edgy people on the board last night, hope none of you are trading with that same type of emotion or you will really be in trouble