I know this is the car wreck that most of you wished didn’t happen; but you come here to see it anyway. As my stocks careen lower again, a very common question is “how are you holding up?” or “how does it feel?” Honestly, if you’ve been in the market for more than a decade, I am sure you’ve had some really bad draw downs, so you should already know.
For me, this is a little different, especially since I had such a great 2013 and kick ass beginning to 2014. To undergo this sort of carnage is surreal and I know it hasn’t hit me yet, the daunting ramifications of it all. The dream of a V-shape recovery is scoffed at over here, meaning my office. I am almost resigned to the point of apathy, waiting it out, in between bouts of frenetic energy that says to just sell it all and start fresh.
Again, I want to keep an honest dialogue here, so I can tell you that the idea of selling everything and “starting fresh” is very appealing to me, even if it meant I sold at the lows. You can’t change what’s already done and a stock is only as good as tomorrow’s closing price. Whatever happened in the past happened. It’s no use lamenting over it and wallowing in misery, since that’s counter-productive and doesn’t help anyone.
To answer your question: shock is the best word to describe it.
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First!
Hold on, young slugger. I’ve seen you get out of worse fixes before (I say, ensconced in my Treasury redoubt)
le fly… we are so oversold, it just HAS to rally soon. it has to. can’t keep going down
not yet friend
Nothing has to do anything
Not trying to be invasive but how does this impact other areas of your life (or are you able to ‘leave the office behind’ so to speak?
I never leave the office behind. I eat and breathe this.
If you hold through earnings, are you going to hedge, or is that out of the question at this point?
That is a very good question. Not sure yet
there is still another wash out coming. ive been saying it for two weeks since i joined your site. -300ish day…then consolidation and then a huge gap down where we finally get our reversal and buy opp
We went down a THOUSAND points in a day in 1987. From a Dow level of 2700.
That corresponds to a drop of SIX THOUSAND POINTS in one day from here.
Now THAT is what you would call a “wash out”.
I know you don’t want to hear it but I believe the S and P just needs to test it’s 200 day before it recovers. A pullback is healthy; I’d wait it out instead of taking some big ass losses Boss.
I don’t mind hearing anything. Everyone has an opinion. Mine has been exactly wrong as of late, so I am not one to judge.
I keep going back to this post. http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/04/04/a-case-study-of-the-dot-com-crash/
You know, but may not currently be remembering, that the moment you sell these positions and get this albatross off your back, you will feel immediately and immensely better.
And your thinking will suddenly become immensely more clear.
Yeah then the market will rally. You must be the dumbest person in the world.
Huggiebear is exactly right.
Sometimes best thing to do is sell half, and then another half if stuff keeps going against you. But its just so late in the game for that now…
Rip that band-aid off and start new.
I know exactly how you feel…
Thanks zach,
I’m going to play it exactly like that. I appreciate your trading advice. My plan is to follow it by purchasing $10,000 worth of SPY $170 June contracts.
feel bad for you, dude fly
sell one position .. toss a maiden into the sacrificial volcano
You have to clean the slate.. You can still use some call options to play the coming rally to get some coin back.
I’m committing 10 percent of the bankroll starting today to buy calls in the carnage.
MY PREDICTION:
We decline today.
We decline tomorrow.
We find a bottom tomorrow.
We rally for the next one – two weeks on earnings from “The Darlings.”
That is when you need to sell…..maybe you can make back 25% of your decline. Maybe 35% if you get lucky.
You need to disconnect emotion and come at this from a fresh perspective. That means sell it all.
It’s not easy to “accept” losses, believe me I know, but you can trade your way back over the balance of the year although you can’t do that if you are stuck in your current positions for the wrong reasons. You are unable to put your talents to work now because the market has control. If it goes up, you win. Down, you lose. Once you’ve gone to cash, you call the shots and there aren’t many, if any, who can get themselves out of this. I believe you are one of the few who can.
These stocks may go up from here and if they do, you can buy back but at least it’ll be after the dust settles and you have a clearer mind.
Best of luck.
Good thoughts Metal
Ever hear on the wash sale rule? Obama is waiting at the IRS for you!
doesnt apply to professionals dipshit
You definitely are not a professional. I have a M to M account but bet you don’t ahole!
ok. moving along.
this feye short is really working
I bet you have a small wee wee.
Couldn’t help myself
Fly dont sell. it cannot get any stupidier…
Spoken like a plebeian who has never seen the market go full retard. It can go much, much lower. Now go reread market wizards or some gil morales or watch CNBC and tell us all how things work out.
yeah tell the fly to sell feye on dead lows. I just loaded QQQ calls, lets see where we stand in a week. and gil morales is a tim knight-esque loser.
shit your opinion of gil morales forces me to like you. damn it.
going out on your shield is for Spartans. You are a MM w a fiduciary responsibility to hedge your risk. cut the size down in the oversized Uglies or sell the worst of the worst. Protect your clients from a waterfall type event. Eat the loss like a man and make the phone calls. Youll be fine.
i bet you are a teller at a branch
Fly,
Hang in there, we are within a day or two of the bottom before a rip-their-faces-off short covering rally.
Best to you – you rock and show your true class in your darkest hour… a lesson missed by many but valued by more than you know
Worst case could be SPX 1580. Can you hold all the way?
Fly is finished.
I was caught like this when I went long EUR then shorted and continued to short into strength, only to see the EUR rally further.
This is a painful place to be and can cause some psych damage because nothing makes sense at that time.
The final losses we’re huge, but you end up regrouping tin the end.
The S&P is going to follow the “momo” stocks, but by that time the “momo” will be turning and people will have missed the boat
Fear is a liar.
Audentes Fortuna Iuuat
if you have deep pockets .. sometimes it can also kill you
People who fear of dying often live boring lives
Fly why don’t you sell ITM calls against your stock or put on some type of hedge?
Amazing action, my dog is in full control of his portfolio $RUSS $BIS $EDZ
Where did this collection of idiots come from?
How it feels…every trader’s been there, Fly. One never forgets that feeling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06wGR1oOoC8
Well if you let FEYE shit all over you all the way down to this gap fill, might as well see if it holds 44 bucks. Whats the difference between dumping it now and 50 cents from now. I wouldnt “cost down” on this though. Just see if it bounces a little on short covering and recover a bit, then make revenge your sole objective.
Please just sell, Fly. I want to buy your list but will only know it’s the bottom if you capitulate.
Ok, I sold it all. Now go buy it.
What about the shocker?
Spike the vix. Flush the SPY to a major mov avg. And crash gold. Then the bottom will be in. We are getting closer.
i can’t sell a share at the moment
What is all of this was just a social experiment and Fly really got out of his positions 15% ago? I think its a real possibility.
You’re too cynical.
How can you listen to advice from these losers?? Oh you don’t. Good for you!
bart, do you have multi colored hair and a big red nose?
dont sell when all gaps are close to filling mang (besides yelp) algos and bots see they are filled and start bidding. wday also showing strength all day because gap filled, Wday is close to making a bottom Buy more of that
i think ur wrong, he mentioned in the ppt that he bot more feye yesterday above 50 and wday is actually up today so it will def be down tomorrow
Mr. Fly, I hope you really didn’t sell everything. try scaling out 1/3 at a time. We always panic at the bottom. You have made it through the worst part.
Ok Fly, here’s your last opportunity to buy FEYE and recover some $$$. Trading $45.50’s now.
man you should have taken my call. i did over 8% on it today and sold it all before close.
This drop is going to allow the good traders to scoop up amazing companies at generational low prices.
generational low?? most of the momo names are still up huge from last year, looooong way to fall before we get to generational lows bozo
Maybe people are selling to pay their taxes? Big gains realized in 2013…
Fly,
Bravo for your honesty.
You will recover.
Once this decline is over, which stocks will rise fastest? The ones everyone is agonizing over, or those which have weathered the storm best?
If u sell, u would have falled into the trap of the blue light, zapped to shreds
Where’s Devildog right about now?
.
I’ve gassed up the “FAZmobile” …
…Tires rotated…Oil change…Detailed !!!
—–
Bout ready to take it for a spin !
.
wouldn’t that have been better about 50 SP pts earlier?
should buy these things into some strength? no?
There is always a third opportunity—to sell some of the losers, not the entire portfolio. A hedge of some sort.
And I’ve seen you raising from big drawdowns (remember VXX), so, there’s no reason for me to believe that this time is different.
There are plenty of assholes twisting knives with extra salt in your wounds, in these forums, but don’t forget that there are many of old-time readers here, too. We’ve seen you through peaks and troughs. Respect.
In the beginning of 2014 there was an interesting article by The Economist where they said that the ratio of corporate earnings to GDP was at the all time highs. If it’s not earnings that drive future P/E growth then there’s only liquidity, and it’s been endangered. So, unless Mrs. Y does something drastic all this suggests the market might just go sideways for the rest of the year.
We reverse now. You can’t sell with RSIs this low. WE ARE NOT IN A BEAR MARKET. yet.
I am in a lot of YELP stock right now. I wanted to pick up more earlier today and wish I did. My basis is around 62. My first scale point is 70. Watch me win.
WDAY is the only chart of the stocks you own that I like right now. bullish on WDAY down here