Fuck you very much John McCain and your mentally ill ways.
There is no need to give any of you financial advice any longer. The end is near; prepare for an unglorious death, via Congressional diktat.
Oh, the irony.
In other newz, Microvision, Inc. [[MVIS]] really needs to get on the do not short list. And, go buy some guns and ammo; because America is going to be like Mad Maxx, the sequel, very soon.
However, be sure to get out there and vote for “your guy” on November 4th.
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All so he could try and postpone Sarah Palin’s first, and only, pathetic debate performance. Makes me sick. Fucking RC suggesting AAPL – I was all cash before that. Oh well, hopefully people will buy an Ipod Shuffle with the last $100 in their wallet.
Please don’t abuse the cajun. He is a bull by nature. This is not the time to be a bull. It takes balls to sit in cash during times like this.
Get this:
One might go out and start shorting stuff tomorrow, as McCain dips out of his debate with the Obama-man.
Lo and behold, late Sunday Congress will strike a deal and send the market up a million points.
In short, you are fucked if you do, fucked if you don’t.
ZLC is on the short list… why not everyone… why not ban selling stocks.
This is turning into a flamingly gay casino.
The political circus is amazing in it’s utter retardation.
Keeping my state red wiff inhofe baybee!!
At this juncture, I’d vote for a military intervention right now.
Where can we sign up for that?
I’d rather have a strong military dictator than these fucking illiterate assclowns throwing apple martinis at eachother, while the country burns.
Yeah, it’s gonna be a flaming shitfest.
is the deal off the table though or are they still working on it? It doesn’t sound to me as though it’s over.
Barney Frank says the House GOP is against it, the Senate GOP is in favor while the Dems are on board. So why not vote? The GOP is in the minority in the house last time i counted the votes.
I’m gonna make a shitload of money on the downside this time, no more puss shit.
J:
It’s all political theatre. They are all dicks.
The deal was done, until the senile one came down with his campaign staffers, demanding answers.
Keep in mind, McCain has not voted on a bill since APRIL.
I’m in cash and I have no balls. Odd, no?
Danny:
You will make nothing. They are jerking our wires.
Trust me when I say, the net result will be negligible, because they will be forced into some deal by Sunday night.
Jesus/ fly why bring up MVIS up at a time like this?
The deal will get done.
If not tomorrow, look for Monday morning fuckery for anyone caught short.
My prediction: the deal will be stupid and ridiculous, and once the details are out, the market will tank anyway.
At this point I would call in the “Austrian Boys”…
however I’m dead…but I do think that all short selling will be banned…it falls under the Patriot Act which is after all patriotic.
The Fly Says:
“Danny:
You will make nothing.”
😀
Where have you guys been? I was reading Wonkette this afternoon and they had the info that McCan’t squelched the deal.
yeah, yeah, I never make big enough bets anyway. But I will make something. I’ve been on a good win streak, it’s hard to say no.
You’re right about the net effect, down tomorrow, up Monday, but I’m thinking several month terms.
If McCain was a trader he would be Doug Kass.
My guess is they are negotiating privately on the deal right now. Publicly they made a show out of shutting down the talks for the night, Paulson went home, and the candidates left, the cameras are gone. Now the real power brokers can get to work behind the scenes.
like, a several month long kicking ass streak.
and like it
If mcpain pooches the deal he’s got my vote.
Does McCain win the Asshat of the week award ?
You losers wanna turn this country into Xanadu…I prefer a more Planet of the Apes kind of society.
hell, I was right about them fucking us at least
If the deal is done as you guys say.. behind the scenes why all the theater then? What’s the political mileage they’re getting out of it.
I answered my own question from earlier – why was CVS on the no short list??
CVS Caremark Corp. was added to the list Thursday. The Woonsocket, R.I., company says was added because of its pharmacy benefits management program and its connection to the insurance industry.
“We have insurance programs through the SilverScripts and Prescription Pathways, which are Medicare Part D programs,” spokeswoman Carolyn Castel said in an e-mail. CVS’ rivals in prescription benefits management, Medco Health Solutions Inc. and Express Scripts Inc., had already been placed on the NYSE list.
This list is getting really nutty – I guess evil traders think all the Federal money going for Wall Street will reduce Medicare payments… LOL
Who are we kidding here. Most people are over-fucking-whelmingly against this bailout. These people do not understand the ramifications, nor do they currently give a fuck.
I took my son to karate practice tonight, and his black belt, ass kicking, instructor, gave me a short earful of fury. Almost every person I talk to about this is mad as hell.
Fuck it, Paulson should just shut down all the banks and put their assets on the treasury balance sheet, then he can go back to congress and tell them “now we own it all” fuck you, I always win… even when i lose
The next wave coming …
South Korea’s welfare ministry Friday said the National Pension Service, the world’s fifth-largest pension fund, will show a negative return in 2008 and plans to scale back new stock purchases, according to a Reuters
Chivas, if you are still up — give us your take on this whole credit insurance angle. From a “pure capitalism” standpoint, it sounds like the right thing to do, but I haven’t studied the particulars.
Looks like a nice hedge for taxpayers too, which could help get this thing passed.
The deal was done,
No, it wasn’t.
Pelosi wants House Republicans to support the bailout before she brings it to the floor for a vote. When Paulson met with the GOP House members earlier this week, only four of them indicated a willingness to support the bailout. Hence, McCain heading to Washington in an effort to gain GOP House support.
GOP House members were never on board and were never given an opportunity to have their ideas incorporated into the bailout legislation. So why should they support it? It is a stupid idea.
The Dems have the votes in the House to pass the bill if they want to, but they will do it without substantial GOP support.
Expect passage sometime over the weekend.
In other news:
Jake Wins!
(at least at 9;30 tomorrow morning)
__
donny is right, people don’t understand the ramifications, nor do they care. none of them give a flying f@ck how bad it gets. bring it!
Nice summary Dogwood, that’s what I’m hearing.
If any of you fucktards want to check out the political play by play side of this, at least from the Republican side, National Review’s The Corner is pretty much liveblogging the whole thing.
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Here’s a link to The Corner.
Keep scrolling to read the tidbits on what’s going on.
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“If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down.”
President Bush, Sept 25, 2008
I’m pretty much with The Fly on this so I will operate on the assumption that a deal will evolve over the weekend; it will simply delay the country’s ass-raping a little longer. However, IMHO it sounds like some of you do not appreciate the nature of the opposition to Paulson’s plan, nor the grassroots momentum that is supporting it. If it was just political grandstanding, it would be over now. Instead, we have outright revolt among Republican congressmen and rumors that at least 2 senators are considering a filibuster, which might work if McCain is with them.
Mercury retrograde. Just saying.
WaMu offices trashed after deal announced:
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/955264/
Nice headline Paulson you big pussy:
“TREASURY SECRETARY HENRY PAULSON FEARS BAILOUT DEAL MAY COLLAPSE; PLEADS WITH DEMS, ‘PLEASE DON’T BLOW THIS UP,’ ABC NEWS HAS LEARNED”
___
However, IMHO it sounds like some of you do not appreciate the nature of the opposition to Paulson’s plan, nor the grassroots momentum that is supporting it.
Main Street is pissed beyond belief over this idea. Calls to Congress have been running 50 to 1 against the bailout.
JakeGint always loses, even when he appears to be winning.
+++++++ GDP
Jake… Face it… Your guy’s a fucktard. No amount of wingnut commentary is going to fix that.
Forget about voting for “my guy,” Fly.
Rather, this.
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I just want to throw up!!!! Thats all Im gonna say about that ( Thanks for listening)
Recusancy, better the fucktard you know, than the asshat communist asslick with the shady past that you don’t.
So solly.
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Cubs — I am a lifelong Yankee fan, whilst your very name shows your affinity for the lifelong loser Cubs.
Consider the metaphor.
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Here is a key part of a recent AP story:
At day’s end, (Barney) Frank said he told Paulson “this whole thing is at risk if the president can’t get members of his own party to participate.”
In other words, even though they have the votes to pass the bailout, the House Dems won’t do it unless the House GOP goes along with it, and to date, the House GOP has been given no significant opportunities to incorporate their ideas into the bill, so they have no reason to support it.
Look folks, this isn’t hard. If the majority, regardless of party, wants a piece of legislation to pass on a bipartisan vote, then the majority must put something into the bill that the minority party wants. And the bigger the stakes, then the more significant the compromise needs to be.
According to everything I have read on the issue, House Dems have made the demand for a bipartisan vote, but they have not acted in a bipartisan fashion while drafting the legislation.
Ruh roh, Raggy Recusancy:
The Chicago Sun-Times reports the Illinois attorney general is investigating a $100K government grant tied to Obama:
A $100,000 state grant for a botanic garden in Englewood that then-state Sen. Barack Obama awarded in 2001 to a group headed by a onetime campaign volunteer is now under investigation by the Illinois attorney general amid new questions, prompted by Chicago Sun-Times reports, about whether the money might have been misspent.
The garden was never built. And now state records obtained by the Sun-Times show $65,000 of the grant money went to the wife of Kenny B. Smith, the Obama 2000 congressional campaign volunteer who heads the Chicago Better Housing Association, which was in charge of the project for the blighted South Side neighborhood.
What? You knew this guy came out of Chicago’s political equivalent of the Mafia, and you thought maybe he was clean?
Fugghedaboudit!
_
Dogwood — I’m “shocked, shocked” that Bubbah Franks, Cornhole Esquire is trying to stuff something down another man’s throat.
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Yep, hard to believe Jake. It just boggles the mind at times!
Breaking iBC News!
Sarah Palin meets up with Rag at Bilderberg’s Waldorf pied a terre!
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lol @ Jake…
You’re absolutely right, Ozark. I’m one of the “People who don’t understand how serious this is.” I’ve been contacting my elected fuckheads all week. The entire country is opposed to the bailout. The only people in favor of it are the crooks on Wall Street who got us into this mess and the cheerleaders on CNBC. I’m sure that you were also in the market during the Global Financial Meltdown of August 1998. I see no evidence that the current “crisis” is any worse.
“Frank and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi responded angrily, and Paulson, in an attempt to lighten the mood, got down on one knee, said the sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, like the others, because the conversations were private.”
Paulson got down on one knee infront of Barney Frank. Hmmmmmmmm.
…” Frank said he told Paulson “this whole thing is at risk if the president can’t get members of his own party to participate.”
So Barney wants to get all Republicans to participate by getting down on their knees before him …..
Interesting the things our elected officials get up to behind close doors.
Currencies from all over the West flooding into the yen?
Hmmm… odd, no?
(No, not really.)
Gold up, silver up.
Cowboy up.
_______
JakeGint you fuckin rascist.
Citi cuts Eps & trgt prices on coal tonight:
ANR:$69 from $104
ACI $53 from $86
CNX $71 from $88
FCL $46 from $68
MEE $49 from $84
BTU $69 from $105
*Upgrades CNX to BUY from Hold
**Positive note on BTU
other stuff:
I also remember what the Fed did right before August(?) options expiration back in 1998, eerily similar to last week. Bears got creamed right at the moment of maximum leverage.
I was watching the Senate on CSPAN yesterday (not the hearings), and Republican Lamar Alexander (TN) kept talking about how hard it was going to be to explain to his people back home about why they needed to support Paulson’s plan, but he was going to bear down and do it. Then Republican Pete Demenici (whatever, NM) went on and on about how smart Paulson and Bernanke are and how we should just do what they want to do.
If there is one thing you do not tell voters, it is that they are stupid and they don’t count. Especially when you have the whole country fired up and lots of knowledgeable people involved (and admittedly plenty of retards also, but those would be the 2% that support the President).
Yea…Let’s print more money. We haven’t done that enough.
Bring on Ron Paul. Obama and McCain don’t have a clue on the economy. Fact!
In the end, band aids do not remedy fatal wounds.
The emergency rate cut was in October 1998. August was the month the Russkies defaulted on their Government bonds and LTCM blew up.
Sounds like McCain and his GOP followers don’t want to be called socialists for bailing out Wall Street with taxpayer dollars. Such a righteous yet dangerous path to take at this juncture. The thing is, rather than using taxpayer dollars from the front door, he supports a plan that hides the theft out the back door. How you ask? Easy. First lift regulatory barriers and then give a tax credit to businesses/individuals that buy these properties for pennies on the dollar. Nice! More tax relief for the wealthy all in the name of rescuing taxpayers from an egregious gov’t bailout making McCain the hero again and a proven leader. What deception!
Consider a Donald Trump type investor buys a large foreclosed development on the waterfront in Florida for 20-30 cents on the dollar and then gets to write off the balance of the debt via tax credits (also known as Taxpayer Dollars) on his personal or business taxes. How sweet. The fleecing of America twice in one scandal yet Joey-Brain-On-Drugs thinks he’s been spared his tax dollars from going to Wall Street. What a scam on America while using the whole meltdown as a means to advance his campaign. Throw in some gov’t backing on the mortgage and some “flood insurance” and Voila, problem solved and of course the rich get richer and the middle class pays again.
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/09/22/daily57.html
Ags:
Trade press FMB is indicating that urea (a solid nitrogen product) prices fell sharply around the world this week.
Downgrades – As a result we are downgrading the North American fertilizer producers that have substantial exposure to nitrogen to Holds from Buys, including TRA, CF and AGU. These stocks could struggle until nitrogen prices
stabilize, and we have lowered our target prices, cutting TRA to $44/sh, CF to $128/sh and AGU to $86/sh.
Sigh, such is a man’s lot in life…
First he’s a chick magnet, and then, later:
JakeGint you fuckin rascist (sic).
… he’s a “moron magnet.”
__
UPGRADED RIMM tonight.
Gee, that’s some meltdown in Asia tonight! S&P Asia 50 down a whopping 2 percent. Gold up .29 percent. Treasuries up from twos to thirties. Wait! That’s not supposed to happen. The US is doomed, remember?
What are all you jokers smoking? This bail out in any form will do nothing but creat an equal negative outcome. Most of you dismissed my musings three years ago and now you continue to be brain washed by the same people that told you none of this would happen. Get your shit together. It’s better if those that put us in this situation eat dirt and we build our country back up from the ashes vs artificially bouying and sinking ship. Hoping for a reinflation via hyperinflation is not going to end pretty for anyone. The better evil is to allow the cleanse now.
Yes the cleanse will be devastating but better for our country in the long run.
And you all need to clean your mouths out and act with some fucking class.
I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard Little Miss WisdomTree or Dickhead Ratigan say, “People don’t understand…
I’ve read up on the alternative Republican plan. It’s a damn sight better than Paulson’s. Fed governor Fisher is now publicly opposing the plan, and the clout of the opposition seems to be growing. It’s a different game suddenly.
I’m much less certain now than I was a couple of hours ago that a deal will pass this weekend, at least one resembling what Paulson and Wall Street wanted. I hope they make it a Battle Royale.
I haven’t seen much about the plan. It’s hard to get any accurate information tonight.
dont yall know it doesn’t really matter how they try to balance it, in the end we’ll get the same result
Yes we know we are fucked, it is only a matter of how badly, and when the homo hammer will fall.
Someone needs to put a mustache on Senator Shelby so I can have it punched off.
The GOP plan is as retarded as the Paulson plan.
Understand: I do not believe this is the solution to peace on Earth. All I am interested in is a little respite, coupled with some egregiously good trades.
Unfortunately, politicians get in the way.
Any plan will only delay the inevitable.
Liquidate the banks….
700 billion man vs 62 trillion market.
The bully on the block doesn’t have a chance.
The market will always win.
Hey Sierra, you and I talked about this deflation in some length last fall/winter, odd no?
Just heard some economist on Bloomberg saying that the US would be better served by lowering interest rates to 0 and flooding the market with liquidity so private parties and domestic/foreign investors could acquire all the property as quickly as possible. He also noted that Europe was in far worse shape than us and would not be able to avoid depression under any circumstances. Yikes!
That could explain the Fed’s expectation that we will avoid hyper inflation as the dollar would indeed rally relative to the euro anyway. Anyway he agrees that it’s a zero sum game moving taxpayer dollars from one group to another (namely the bankers/brokers/etal that got us here).
Interesting concept even if Japan has already tried that but I guess they took forever to get there and the idea would be to do it as fast as possible to avoid a long drawn out affair. Wonder if everyone could apply for a 0% mortgage. At least it would reward the guy who’s been paying his mortgage and taxes for years and never cost his fellow taxpayers a dime.
Hey flymeitser;
Take it for what it’s worth… my coal trader rel is telling me that contract price negotiations with the Japs saw a drop in the price of the coal. … about 15 bucks from an original base of US$170.
This happened in the past 24 hours.
Run it up and down the pole a few times to make a little coin. Hire a clown (Dubya) and throw up! Whatever finally comes out of the sausage machine likely will be plagued by miscommunication, confusion, and unintended consequences. You couldn’t plan a better mess.
========================================================
Hey Hacksaw Jim Duggan……
See that guy Bob Piss-on-me….
YEP!
You know what to do…..
======================================================
List of additions to th short list for 09/26/08″
1.
WXS WRIGHT EXPRESS CORPORATION
2.
ZLC ZALE CORPORATION
3.
AIV APARTMENT INVESTMENT AND MANAGEMENT COMPANY
4.
AN AUTONATION, INC.
5.
GBE GRUBB & ELLIS COMPANY
6.
HT HERSHA HOSPITALITY TRUST
7.
SFI ISTAR FINANCIAL INC.
corporate Gas cards?
Jewelry Company?
A used car dealer?
A Hotel developer?
Wonder why they just don’t outlaw shorting altogether.
The bailout
One issue I want to understand. A lot of you guys have been saying this intervention is inflationary. I can’t see how it is though if the money is coming from the taxpayer and it will be borrowed from the bond markets. It’s actually not inflationary at all is my take. Why am i wrong?
And please no low IQ bullshit that it will be because some junk head wills it to be. It’s not money coming off the presses. It’s money being circulated out of the bond markets to the government and then back to outside to the market. It has zippo effect on the printing presses.
Jake and Anton need to stay out of this debate and just observe please as you’re not cognitively capable of following this discourse.
You just had THE LARGEST THRIFT in the US ground into dust.
The customers are now JPM customers – check
The equity holders have been wiped out – check
The bond and preferred holders have been wiped out – check
AND NOTHING HAPPENED!!!!
The world didn’t end, no one died,…although my net long position is fucked in the AM because these assclowns are playing financial Twister. Oh well…I’m mobile and F/T. If this precipitates a massive sell-off then BUY BUY BUY BUY equities, because it will be short term and once resolved the bounce back rally will result in huge gains.
Ya pays ya money, ya takes ya chances. Unless you’re too big to fail. Then you get $160 million golden chute.
J, That’s because Jake has been drinking the GOP Kool-Aid far too long to carry on any type of cognizant discussion on macro economics let alone stocks without retreating to his ad hominem bag-o-tricks.
This is some Armageddon. Gold down. US Treasuries up. Good thing we have Commissar Paulson to protect us.
America is ugly.
Enough said.
Gold stocks may do okay at the open. I base this upon the fact that I bought GDX (goldminers etf) @36.07 (3:58PM)for a swing trade (what the hell), but I put a limit order in for the AH for 36.50 thinking what the hell. Somebody picked my order off for the $36.50 @7:31PM. My “what the hell” trade of yesterday.
McLame has called me to help him with the negotiations…
He feels the problem is – TOO MANY WITCHES
CNBC is really cranking out the propaganda this morning. Count how many times you hear, “People don’t understand.”
Wow. Beavers beat the Trojans last night. Could be good sign for Palin.
If you work for TPG Capital, today is the day to take your personal day.
$2 billion gone in your own capital, plus another $5 billion gone from people you suckered in with you.
Maybe BAC should have waited on MS (like they should have waited on Countrywide). I read the below article and see is down another 11% in pre-market.
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/09/customers-cut-o.html
why oh why do my hedges never seem to be enough!
almost like a Texas Hedge.
balls@!
People DON’T understand. That’s a huge problem.
And unfortunately, in the same group as people who don’t understand are most members of Congress and at least one presidential nominee.
Minyan Peter
08:29:23 AM
Position in SPY options and JPM debt obligations
Monday Matters
With headlines like “Bailout Talks Implode” and “Wamu Fails” this morning, it may be very tempting to get step into a bunker.
Yet, while I remain negative longer term, I would remind everyone that Monday Matters. As the end of the third quarter, Monday is the date on which all capital ratios will be calculated for banks. And if I were Hank and Ben, I would be looking for a rabbit or two to pull out before then. (I also have no doubt that despite the posturing, there will be a bill signed before the sun goes down on the month of September.)
Finally, I would highlight that while mid-week bank seizures are highly unusual, Monday also mattered with regards to Washington Mutual (WM). By seizing the bank last night, the regulators enabled JPMorgan (JPM) to raise $8 billion in common stock prior to quarter end, and more importantly by getting the deal done now it kept Wamu off the quarterly troubled asset report for the FDIC.
Jim Cramer Armageddon Central Blog
Worst-Case Scenario: Dow Under 8400
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/26/2008 6:59 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10439452.html
Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?
I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.
Not long ago, I postulated that this market is literally repealing all of the moves since the Brazil-Russia-India-China emergence that gave us better markets to sell into than just the U.S. With the collapse of Chinese growth — they have simply ceased to be importers since the summer — the inflation in India, the war in Russia and a U.S.-led slowdown in Brazil (although that remains a robust market) BRIC is more like having a brick around your neck than a wind at your back.
Meanwhile, the peak in energy and the collapse of the financial system have left both of those groups in disarray with valuations simply too difficult to pin down, so you retreat to worst-case scenarios where you can at least find some terra firma — mainly where stocks were last time things were this bad.
Given that most of these companies bought back stock at high prices and issued stock to executives, the actual value of the buybacks seems almost nonexistent, so the value that was created since those hard times is hard to see.
Finally, in a recession like we are having, one can only guess how badly the consumer will be scalded. This list of prices is about a scalded consumer.
I don’t want to bury the punchline, but when you add these worst-case prices together you get Dow Jones 8378, which, reluctantly, I admit is where we are going if everything fails with the plan and the economies here and worldwide are left to their own devices.
Let’s run through the Dow 30.
1. Caterpillar (CAT) can retreat back to $43 where it started both before the housing boom and before the energy boom and before BRIC became a dominant force. All of its markets will be challenged with housing downturns worldwide and energy prices retreating from highs, something that I think will happen as economies slow.
2. Citigroup (C) — $14. This is where it traded before the short-selling rules were created on July 15, and this is where it is going without a financing and a big investment. It might not stop there if there is no relief at all. I am really bearish on this stock without a plan.
3. Du Pont (DD) has a lot of businesses that are less cyclical than people think and a safe dividend. I would be surprised if it went much below $40, where I would like to buy it.
4. American Express (AXP) has turned into a terrible lender with a product that is viewed as something that is no longer indispensable, courtesy great marketing by Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) . This stock’s headed to $31, maybe lower, as it is really a weak sister in the Dow now.
5. Disney (DIS) traded at $25 when people thought there was nothing to it other than a declining advertising business and an expensive group of theme parks. This is a company I will buy for Action Alerts PLUS if it hits that downside target.
6. United Technologies (UTX) is a BRIC derivative for certain with too much aerospace and a defense business that could be hurt by an Obama election. Knock it back to $51, which would be a repeal of the whole BRIC move.
7. Coca-Cola (KO) talked recently about how it is not immune from a retail sales slowdown; when it did, the stock retreated to about $48, where it would surely be headed again.
8. 3M (MMM) is a play on worldwide growth in a number of industrial areas, and worldwide growth is on the decline beyond what this fine firm is ready for. It could have a huge decline in earnings, and I am putting it at $50.
9. General Motors (GM) , without a plan and without a handle on Delphi and on the right kind of cars, will burn through the bailout money quickly and disappears. Yes, it goes bankrupt. Stocks don’t get down to where they are like this one if something hasn’t become out of control. This one’s out of control.
10. General Electric (GE) — I think it could trade down to $20. The decision to end the buyback, which was just wasting a gigantic amount of money, is now behind them, so all it would have to contend with is lower earnings and a less turbo-charged report.
Check back in a bit for my projections for the other 20 components of the Dow.
Good fight on CNBC. I like it.
Go Rick!
from NYTimes today:
In the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., literally bent down on one knee as he pleaded with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, not to “blow it up” by withdrawing her party’s support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal.
“I didn’t know you were Catholic,” Ms. Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr. Paulson’s kneeling, according to someone who observed the exchange. She went on: “It’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.”
Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”
Record number of Hedge funds are gong to cash. One reason is the cost of hedging is going up. Cash is King.
No worries, everyone, since “cash in now King,” we are here to protect the yen!
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J, That’s because Jake has been drinking the GOP Kool-Aid far too long to carry on any type of cognizant discussion on macro economics let alone stocks without retreating to his ad hominem bag-o-tricks.
Lol.
This, from a cowardly douchebag whose “nom du day” (for today, at least) is “Tax Credits for the Rich.”
Go fuck a Glad snack bag, loser. And then go get your shine box.
Jake: Good day to write some calls on Skiffles? Thats my thinking.
who elected these fucking babies…
he started it…its their fault.
i cant believe my eyes and ears!
Understand: I do not believe this is the solution to peace on Earth. All I am interested in is a little respite, coupled with some egregiously good trades.
Who counseled you to “get out of all your short hedges” like this was a done deal the other day?
Jeremy?
Since when does Congress pass a $700bn (plus-plus!) appropriations deal giving the Sec of the Treasury virual police state powers in one or two days?
Even if this IS all political kabuki, you gotta figure it’ll at least take up their weekend.
___
Bruce– yes, definitely, when they get to $120 or so…
I may even GTFO of everything this morning. Toooo much crazee.
“Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” type of shit.
I will hold on to the PM hedges, though, and some of my dirty filthy oil and coal plays.
___
Hey Scully, that list is too funny. I used to do bidness with that Hersha Properties Trust (HT)… they are a small hotel REIT, and by “small” I mean Hampton Inns, for the most part.
Nice Indian family runs it… why they should be worried about shorting, I’ve no idea, except maybe the whole “everyone’s doing it” reflex. I wouldn’t mind coming in and buying their shares cheap, though.
CBL and UBA as well. Keep your eyes on those folks… well run companies with fat divvies are not so easy to find these days.
Jake and Anton need to stay out of this debate and just observe please as you’re not cognitively capable of following this discourse.
I wonder if this retard even realizes that we are on opposite sides of the political spectrun, Anton?
Whatever the case, I’m not educating him without a hefty “tuition payment” and triplicate evidence of a legal GED.
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http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-C-Paulson-citigroup-jpm-bac/index/a/19186
Toddo: So, what’s the good word?
Mr. Practical: I hope everyone is well, and well aware of what is going on right now in Washington. The socialization of markets is accelerating.
Toddo: I believe many are, if the emails and feedback are any indication. I’m not interested in looking back as folks need guidance on the road ahead. There are a lot of confused people out there—including our policy makers—as the stakes have never been higher.
Mr. Practical: The government continues to change the rules, as they usually do under times of stress. I’m happy, however, to share my thoughts on where I think we currently stand.
Toddo: Hit me, cookie.
Mr. Practical: Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke have asked for too much “money” with too little detail. They have also asked for immunity from review. This is very strange. Why not implement their plan with clear guidelines, accountability, and transparency? Nothing really happened from a few weeks ago to create this sense of urgency.
Frankly I think the public is giving much too much trust to a few men who might not really understand what they are doing or worse, have a different agenda than protecting tax-payers.
Perhaps they are trying to protect our Asian lenders instead?
Or perhaps it is because of the Fed’s complicity in our current state of affairs and thus their desire to bail out the equities of banks?
Whatever it is, on its face they plan to assume ownership of debt at a price much higher than would clear the market. This is not appropriate. When the government assumes the market is not pricing assets properly and uses taxpayer money to bid them higher, that is socialism, pure and simple.
But their argument to do so is flawed. This is not merely a liquidity issue as they profess: there is not enough capital to support the debt.
That is not a liquidity issue, that is a solvency issue.
To ignore that economic implication is naivety at best: as the government re-prices assets, risk will grow, not be reduced, and growth will slow. So any plan that injects capital into insolvent banks at the very least needs to offer equity to the fund they plan on creating.
I am not advocating what they are doing. I am pointing out the very least that should be done if they are going to go this route: minimal and staggered funding, full transparency and accountability, and dilution of equity from failed institutions.
But their goal—as you’ve talked about—seems to be to spur stock prices higher through their ban on short selling, which is shameful, and using taxpayer money to transfer profits to financial companies.
That will only protect the wealthy establishment at the expense of the middle class, as any bailout tends to do.
The middle class will pay for this in either higher taxes or a much lower dollar in the future. Their claim that the taxpayers may actually make “money” out of this is ridiculous.
Even if the fund eventually gets the same amount of dollars back nominally, those dollars will be so devalued there will be huge actual economic loss.
Toddo: Do they have a choice? Wouldn’t a failure to act suck our entire finance-based economy into the abyss.
Mr. Practical: There needs to be culpability and consequences for those who have misjudged and mispriced risk. The savers in this country don’t care if JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) or Citigroup (C) trade at $2, they simple need to know that their deposits are safe. That is much less expensive for taxpayers than keeping value in the equity, of which there is little if any.
The way to eventually heal the system is to let bad banks fail and just protect the savings at those banks. The dollar, ironically, would remain stronger in the long run if we let the right amount of debt be destroyed without supporting equities of insolvent institutions.
Toddo: So you’re saying we should basically “hit tilt” and start over.
Mr. Practical: Don’t support worthless equity and print only enough dollars to protect savings. This is the only way to eventually attract private capital back into the market.
They keep talking about instilling confidence, but the only way to instill confidence for investors is to not print money/create more debt to solve a debt problem. If not, private capital will remain on the sidelines and the only liquidity will be from borrowing from the future.
Toddo: You were of the view that all roads lead to deflation. Is this massive bailout package a game changer that jumps the shark to hyperinflation?
Mr. Practical: The bailout is a form of monetization, although a small one. The Fed mechanically already expanded its balance sheet on a more permanent basis by printing currency and buying treasuries from the government a week or so ago.
The Fed’s balance sheet has grown an alarming 35% just in the last month. This was a clue to what a massive monetization would look like.
There was an article on Minyanville called The Pin Prick where it was discussed that our Asian lenders decided not to buy our bonds anymore.
What if Mr. Paulson really needs his $700 billion immediately because the Chinese want a bid on all of the bonds they own?
If there were massive pressures on our interest rates because of something like this, the Fed could monetize: print massive amounts of currency and buy up U.S. treasuries.
This would be a hyperinflation and send all prices up massively only to eventually destroy the economy. Let us hope the government has more sense than to do this, although from what I have seen I am not hopeful that is the case.
Toddo: We’ve been beating the drum that capital preservation, debt reduction and financial intelligence were steady tenets of any intelligent approach. If this scenario comes to pass, capital preservation wouldn’t protect investors who have squirreled away savings. Where should people put their money?
Mr. Practical: For the time being, my opinion is that it’s safest in U.S. Treasury securities or if you want to be out of the dollar as I do, invested in sovereign securities of another country.
There is enormous debt denominated in dollars, much more than there was in 1929 relative to GDP and much more than Japan had to deal with in 1990. That debt must be repaid in dollars or destroyed, so for the time being that should continue and the further collapse of the dollar.
Minyans are witnessing the destruction of the largest asset bubble in history and risk is very high.
If sensible people take control of the government’s response to this problem, they will allow the market to wind down this debt with as little monetization as possible. This will lower the standard of living in the U.S. for some time, but will eventually clear the decks for future economic expansion. Savers will eventually begin to lend again, so having savings will be very valuable.
If the wrong people remain in control of the government response to this situation, the dollar will eventually be completely destroyed and a hyperinflation will occur. This will sap vast wealth from the middle class.
If this is the case, just at the right time one must buy gold or even raw property in the U.S., for eventually it will be un-buyable in dollars. I have no advice on timing and thus would recommend just sitting pat: staying out of debt, and that may mean pinching pennies and lowering your standard of living (saving) and enjoying your family and friends.
I hate to talk like this but that is the way I see it.
What is paramount now is that sensible people running the government do not abuse their power and do what is best for taxpayers.
Hopefully they will realize that in the long run the market is actually their best tool for eventually letting the problem run its course.
Toddo: Thank you Mr. Practical. Wise words as always.
The real question here is who is next?
Anyone have the feeling this “bailout” might not even matter any more?
The psychological damage has been done.
Please post up the obligatory burnt toast picture.
The bilge pump just permanently blew a gasket.
Wow. Beavers beat the Trojans last night.
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Random Musing: Can you imagine the tee-shirts they sell at that game?
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Uncertainty kills markets. Regardless of if the bailout was a good plan, Mccain has only made the uncertainty level higher by politicising this…The less said the better till a plan was final.. Panic is the new normal
Congress is killing capitalism and democracy with one shot. At least they’re finally being efficient.
I’ve always voted Republican, but these Republican assholes like Shelby, Bunning and the ideological assholes in the House should be tarred and feathered in the public square.
Beavers beat the Trojans by a whisker.
The only thing worse than bad news is uncertanity. Glad I held onto my EEV hedge or I would be getting crushed at the open.
Well I just opened to a fucking sea of RED!!!!! FUCK THIS SHIT!
Anonymous douchebag: I guess the theme du jour is “blame McCain,” but I haven’t heard anything stupider.
Again, we are not talking about putting a stop light on fifth and Main Street, here, but throwing over $700 BILLION unaccountable dollars into the market under the questionable police state hand of the Treasury Secretary.
That was “the deal” that Barney Frank wadddled his fat ass out of his office yesterday and declared “done.”
Fuck him.
nd fuck anyone who thinks something like this should just be done in two seconds without any sense of deliberation or review.
You Demos squealed like stuck pigs when they took only a couple of weeks to ratify the Patriot Act although it’s not clear anyone in Congress even read the whole thing. I actually sympathized with you on that issue.
So I don’t know how in the fuck you could support a gigantic deal like this constructed in quick step like some meatball carpenter’s tool shack. And I don’t know how Waddles Frank could in good conscience declare a deal “done” when it hadn’t the support of even ONE House Republican.
Just so that Fannie Mae Whore could make McCain look bad? That’s what it’s looking like.
That’s a good way to make bad law. I look forward with relish to THAT fat fucks trial on corruption charges.
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What do you guys think is best hedge to my long positions?
I need an inverse ETF and already own SLV…want to take large position to neutral out my portfolio
Fuck the bailout. Let the market go to 8400.
And let them fuckin’ banks and brokers DIE.
It’s the best thing that could ever happen.
I’ve always voted Republican, but these Republican assholes like Shelby, Bunning and the ideological assholes in the House should be tarred and feathered in the public square.
Besides stupid shit you read in the paper, what would make you say that? Is it better we get a gigantic pork laden bill that doesn’t actually work?
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I need an inverse ETF and already own SLV…want to take large position to neutral out my portfolio.
Not to beat a dead horse, but I still like my “big three” — EEV, FXP and SKF.
There is also EFU, which I may start stepping into, so I can “get mine” from some Romanian IRA’s, too.
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Done daytrading for a little while this AM. Thanks MSFT,TXN,SMH,CSCO.
FU Pelosi.
When mainstreet lets the government essentially be forced to pick up billions of dollars of loans with our money – and we (NONE OF US) really understand the default swaps and derivatives that got us here. It’s just another reminder that there’s them (big money) and us (tax paying fools).
And even if you’re a two income middle class shmuck (like me) you ain’t big money. You’re paying for this shit. And we don’t have a choice – our country is built on cheap money and cheap oil. We can’t get enough of it. Your wife wants a bigger house and you want more horsepower. Only thing worse is whining about it. America has sold out, deal with it. Do you want to get even? Get out of debt and buy a Civic.
Market is not down that bad. They know their going to get what they want one way or another and very soon.
Toobusy — wise words.
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Gold & Silver both up almost 3%?
I’d say Bernake himself is hand cranking the Benjamin mimeograph machine.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMYLjlpP0NY
Something’s up. BAC is up over $1.00, which is the opposite of what you would expect. A rumor or maybe someone knows the deal will get done????
BAC has alot of overlap geographically with WM. I would guess they got a bunch of deposits from WM in the last Just a guess.
The muted response to this horrible news tells you that the market wants to go up.
‘And I don’t know how Waddles Frank could in good conscience declare a deal “done” when it hadn’t the support of even ONE House Republican.”
He took your President’s lead:
Mission Accomplished!