On days like this, you have to love the market.
There I was on Friday, taking down oil stocks/shorting banks, thinking I was cooler than a penguin in an ice box, then BAM: hurricane Gustav destroyed me—instead of those stupid rigs.
Sweet irony.
No, really, it will not destroy me; but it will be a set back.
It’s 6:50am (et), my early guess, [[DIG]] trades down $9, Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] makes Woodshedder look like a genius and [[SKF]] will touch down on $112 again.
Essentially, the oil/commodity trade is being dismantled/shot in the head, because a stupid storm did not destroy our oil/gas infrastructure.
Naturally, it’s a little more complicated than that. However, as gay as it sounds, Hurricane Gustav just gave a blow job to gay men who are short oil. How do you like that?
In short, I was wrong on this trade. It was risky and I knew it.
Nonetheless, we must all make our beds, then lay in them, no?
Immediately, to stem my losses, I will get long a variety of names. Off the top of my head, more Barnes & Noble, Inc. [[BKS]] and Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] sounds good.
The oil bubble is pissing in the street. Be sure to not attempt to catch it. You’ll just get your hands wet with urine—and that would be disgusting.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
OUCH…oil under 107!!!
Did something happen? and the oil futures trading was forced to trade on labor day? Did sellers liquidate and stop-loss followed by more stop-loss?
Crude down 10% over the weekend. It’s all about stealing other peoples money, so wrong.
A 1% move on the SPX futures at 4 am, sure, why not!
Oil’s got strong support at 100 and 90. That’s not so bad. But no doubt shit is in a downtrend–doesn’t it validate the bear theme? less global expansion means less demands for oil I thought.
but at the same time, is still above it’s trendline since 03
$106 and change.
Fly: How badly is this move in oil and oil stocks going to hurt you? Or were you fairly well hedged.
Don’t mess with me … The KING is BACK !
$$$
What’s Jerry Garcia doing in that photo?
you did call it on friday: its a risky trade. so I got out at the open on fri for small profit and stepped back. thank you sir.
these headline things (“hurricane!”) are risky precisely because everybody is watching them. better trades IMO are the ones that people aren’t watching because they are all distracted by the headlines.
The shorts got squeezed on the way up – GS MS had the market cornered – it never should have reached $147. Massive shrt hedge fund got liquidated at $147 – that was the top – wait til tyou hear long hedge fund liquidation for the bottom.
Oil is more a trading vehicle now than a commodity.
The bubble is pricked – it will over shoot to the downside – eventually settling back up @ $100.
Stocks acting like everything is perfectly fine, VIX will prob go down to 17 today ffs. UNG almost hit all time low…
Fuck ME, Stock are for asshats.
The republicans influence on Gustov is responsible for lower crude.
I will deem any equity rally to be a McCain rally.
TSO VLO WNR are trading higher pre-market
obviously, the bear market is over.
Looks like somebody finally gets it about the refiners – as oil comes down, they should start making $ again, not to mention Joey will be back to buying his high margin bag of donuts and a Red Bull to wash them down once gas gets closer to $3. All the analysts still hate ’em. VLO is the cheapest, trading around book, although it does not have the heavy short position of a WNR or TSO. If it gets some mojo to break above $36, it should shoot to the $40’s easy.
Stock market will be up huge today because Bush & McCain handled Gustav reponse very well.
The market will be up for several weeks since they are many tropical systems in the Atlantic right now and we know that Bush/Cheney are a competent team.
Free market cronyism is the only patch to prosperity.
Good Bless the USA.
Short squeeze?
Why not.
In the absence of deal flow, brokers need wild market swings so the prop desk can support the firms.
Happy trading
Thank god Gustav missed us!! That turned the whole economy around over Labor Day! No more inflation or deflation to worry about…no problems with the financial system…nothing but blue skies as far as you can see.
BAH!!! HUMBUG!!!
Hmmmm… our commies sound nervous today (See above). Could it be that non-bounce bounce from Bad Ass Barack coming off the convention that has them muttering?
Hey, and nice “showing” in St. Paul, commies. Keep it classy.
______
Anyone got any stats on the market the week of the GOP convention?
____
oil’s got no legs.
interesting that the refiners are being dismantled by the market, even though they should be all getting drunk off of $10 wine from best cellars.
I’m in the middle of the Atlantic in my 22′ sailboat and there isn’t anything going on ova heah! Nothing. Nada.
Off to drink some Hennessey and take a nap.
Oil to $80!
I kinda feel bad for you oil loving, Permabulls. I warned you fuckers last week that if Gustav didn’t create total havoc, it would likely be a catalyst to send oil below $100. Hell, I’ve been warning you fuckers since dino shit was trading at $145.
Well, here we are at $109 and counting.
Listen muthafuckers. I told you every muthafucking thing is going down. Every muthafucking thing.
And when I said every muthafucking thing, I meant ever muthafucking thing except stocks and bonds. Those muthafuckers are going up.
Muthafuckers.
Curious how the FLY is not to be found after all his rants to buy oil and anything related but when he wins on a trade you can’t shut him up! Of course, now you can’t silence the oil bears on this fine post minor hurricane day……..
Is anyone else sick of the bullshit phrase “game changer” ?
Please, take your fucktarded phrase and catch the next flight to russia and stick it in Putin’s 3 legged gay pet goats cornhole.
Thanks and have great day! 🙂
i love that cnbc is talking about ‘more consumer buying power’ with oil prices coming down.
hmm…last time i checked, companies weren’t too keen on lowering prices, after they’ve already raised them.
so now everyone is going to run out and buy a car and a house? okay. coast clear. party on.
Note: I just gave “Ban Donny” a “point up” not because I agree with him, but because that was pretty fucking funny.
So, to summarize, I still agree with Donny and do not wish him banned, but that was pretty funny, Boomer.
____
VIX has been up almost all day, I’ll hang my hat on that 🙁
“Oil is more a trading vehicle now than a commodity.”
One of the most intelligent comments you will ever hear uttered, here or on any trading blog.
Todd Harrison
10:36:52 AM
position in uso, bidu, yhoo
Gate Sniffage!
* Does Turnaround (Counter-Trend) Tuesday still apply following a three day weekend?
* After scribing a bullish bent on July 16th, I opined on August 6th, in The Recovery and the Storm, that we could well see a run into the elections. I just reread that missive because I sometimes have a tendency to overthink things (ya think?).
* As I just said to Minyan Doug Kass on the phone, the “best set-up” would be if the markets jack higher towards S&P 1330-1350, which would take us straight into the trendline of lower highs that have been in place since October.
* Why? I continue to have serious concerns regarding the credit markets in general and the September issuance in particular. Financial institutions have $871 billion coming due into year-end and that won’t magically resolve itself.
* If risk appetites swallow that supply, we’re off to the races. If they don’t–and I don’t believe they will–we could see a yelp lower that would crush the rush of late-to-the-party bulls.
* How am I playing this? Smaller, for the time being, with some trading positions (long crude, short Baidu (BIDU) under $320), my small bet on Yahoo (YHOO) and a whole heckuva lotta dry powder so I can strike when the iron wrinkles out the sprinkles.
* We’re getting set up open the floodgates to Festivus 2008, which will be held on December 4th in NYC. Last year, almost 400 Minyans shared hugs and handshakes as we celebrated another year of life and raised money for the healers, dreamers, thinkers and visionaries of tomorrow. We sincerely hope that you’ll find the time to join us for this year’s soiree.
* As always, I hope this finds you swell. Back in the saddle, swell.
R.P.
MV Respect
10:11:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Jeff Saut’s Call for This Week
The “Pros” return from holiday this week and with them the “volume” should also return, giving the SPX the ability to break out above its August 11th closing high of 1305. If that plays, my firm’s long-standing 1320–1330 price target comes into view and maybe more. But the time to be aggressively bullish was at the mid-July “lows,” not here.
Nevertheless, with the “Gustav Gotcha” in the rearview mirror, and crude oil down $7.00 per barrel this morning, the pre-opening futures were dancing higher. Yet we’ve seen this act before over the past two weeks with the DJIA gaining 608 points, and losing 724 points, leaving the net change at a frustrating -116 points. However, there have been ways to still make money, like the NASDAQ Biotech Index that “tagged” a six-year high; as things continue to get curiouser and curiouser…
Jay Shartsis
09:22:30 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Extreme Crude
Presently, one of the sentiment extremes showing up is in crude oil futures. At almost $4.00 trading in puts vs. $1.00 in calls, option players are more pessimistic on oil prices than at any time in several years.
This is contrarily bullish. When oil prices were topping in May, this ratio was near 0.19 cents in puts for every $1.00 in calls, so a very big shift has taken place here. DIG is near $80.00 this morning, looks okay to buy.
Bennet Sedacca
08:23:31 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Is China in a Recession?
While everyone points to economic trouble both here and in Europe, I haven’t heard many talking about the Chinese economy. I hear a lot about their stock market, but not much about the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index, which is plunging into negative (contraction) territory.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Sept08/sg2008090228323.gif
This is likely as much behind the fall in oil as Gustav not being as nasty as many think.
So the recession is now most likely global.
Stocks can stay bid for a while, but be careful, folks.
Prices are likely to be very technical and thin.
Jake … I shove it in the perma-oil-loving-bulls faces for their own good. You try to talk some sense to an oil luvin’ fool, and what do you get … cheap shots from motherfuckers who trade the shit for a living.
I provide a public service to these commodity lovin’ fools who are drunk in profits. I feel like the only way to save them, and stop them from giving those profits back, is to ridicule them.
Oil permabulls are living in a box … completely ignoring all the fundamental factors that ultimately dictate were energy is traded … PERIOD.
BTW, I know what’s going on here in California, were every Tom, Dick and Harry is insolvent due to their Alt-A mortgage hitting 110% LTV and resetting at a 100% payment increase. Motherfuckers can’t afford to fill up their big ass SUVs anymore.
FLY. CAN I GET SOME PROPS HERE?
on aug 26 you posted “going all in a very crazy way”
i replied with this..
this is a bad idea. crude oil trades like shit considering the strom is coming. im cetain crude will be below 110 soon.. im shorting oih and xle etc going into the storm.. its my contra play of the year..
A 10 STAR LOCK!!!!
big snacks, I originated the idea….and this is the thanks I get? I tell you to do the opposite and now you want to be recognized as a smart guy? No more! No more coaching from me! You’re on your own!
“Serenity, now!”
Jakes favorite Commie in the wHole World!
Those hurricane predictions out of Colorado State Univ. are ALWAYS wrong. They just want to suck off the government grant. I have a prediction for them. A herd of buffalo will crush Dr. Gray’s car just outside Ft. Collins, Col.
Anyone see my rightful owner?
Let me make it simple. If you trade this market you are gambling. Hedge you positions and take a break. You will be working 16 hr days and never get control. In Bear Markets it pays to wait and let the market show its true self. This is how Bear Markets fuck every trader and stock before it is over. If you don’t play the game at the right times you might not get fucked. Maybe!!
Commie: Not quite, but close.
Olbermann would’ve fit great as Castro’s (and Che’s) propaganda minister, though, wouldn’t he have?
_
Anyone do the “space alien magician” thing and short FED over $16 today?
__
Oooh! Check out the Olbermann fans! The equivalent (on the Left) to Blowhard O’Reilly’s quislings.
Who knew you cultivated such a “challenged” crowd, Fly?
__
I love watching the off camera drama at MSNBC boil onto live TV over the last week.