When the dot com bubble burst, we all paid, in spades.
When the banks crapped out on the treadmill, we all paid, in spades.
As sure as I am sitting here, the disaster unfolding in the commodity markets will come home to roost, in spades mind you, effectively dragging everything lower.
Now, it is my personal belief that oil will not take the elevator straight down. I’m looking for a few good trades, via Hurricanes and other similar natural disasters.
Remember, 90%+ of all successful money managers have HUGE exposure to oil. Everyone took out the financials and plugged in energy. Now, with the bottom falling out, expect to see widespread panic, as funds close and people scramble to get out of underperforming funds.
There is no leadership, unless you call Ambac Financial Group, Inc. [[ABK]] and MBIA Inc. [[MBI]] leaders.
For the day, I averaged down on my [[DIG]] and [[IEO]] positions. However, I sold out of Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] and Global Industries, Ltd. [[GLBL]] . Basically, when things get sporty, I like to focus on a few items. UPL and GLBL were just in my way.
Also, I added to my [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] and [[FXP]] positions. It is my belief that the market will get mud stomped in September. However, do not misconstrue my motives. I am not selling because it’s September, per se. I am selling because I believe multiple funds will close down, causing a selling ripple effect across Wall Street.
It’s been too tough. If you are up this year, bravo. You are good.
It is not easy to navigate markets like this. To do so, you need a “calculator brain,” no doubt.
Finally, I bought some Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] today, only because I promised I would—if it reached the low 80’s again. The sell off in National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] is mind boggling. Despite all the weakness, military stocks keep shooting higher. There, my favorites are Lockheed Martin Corporation [[LMT]] , General Dynamics Corporation [[GD]] , AeroVironment, Inc. [[AVAV]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. Northrop Grumman Corporation [[NOC]] .
NOTE: My refiner play, Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , held up well—considering.
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When do the hoity toity well heeled sophisticates get back from the Hamptons and start trading?
Huge volume reversals in Fannie and Freddie starting at 3:00. Something’s up.
Dutch intel (oxymoron?) says US strike on Iran imminent. Perhaps the reason military stocks rising?
http://tinyurl.com/6jpbxy
didn’t do much for mama mercado though, but yeah, that is a huge rally.
When do the hoity toity well heeled sophisticates get back from the Hamptons and start trading?
I’d say that was right around 1 pm today.
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Good post.
Best to follow the money, wherever it goes.
I remember being up once. Ah, those were the days; heavenly manna flowed plentiful.
Still up for the year, but the summer has been brutal.
Here is a beautiful quote from a smart economist, and it sums up what the fuck is going on in Southern California.
“When you think about all those mortgage guys driving around in their Lamborghinis and spending money hand over fist, driving up the local economy – what everybody’s got to understand is that the weirdness was when those guys were making that kind of money, not what’s happening now” — Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics.
The stock market is not pricing in the shit I’m seeing in Southern California. Trust me fuckers, I live in perhaps the most egregious community in the country when it comes to subpunks, living beyond their means. We are approaching a serious fucking problem.
I drink your milkshake
Donny, what part of socal? I’m in SD.
What have you seen? I mean, I’ve seen foreclosure and for sale signs in the pretty affluent neighborhoods I stalk. But those aren’t “new.”
My neighborhood just remodeled like the whole fucking main street with new gizmos and condos and starbucks and, some mortgage shop. They began construction on that shit in hte last 8 months
“My refiner play, Western Refining, Inc. (WNR: 9.0612 +0.23%) , help up well—considering”
Continue.
Do refiners have to lock in crack spreads via the futures markets?
Take a look at this chart of volatility today:
http://www.geldpress.com/2008/09/the-volatility-clue-to-the-market/
Captain, I regret to report that sensors indicate VMC is being held aloft by a tractor beam of unknown origin.
It may very well be as illogically gravity resistant as the Klingons circling Uranus!
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Danny … I live in Laguna Niguel.
My business provides me with a birds eye view of business all over Southern California.
BTW, I love San Diego … that ball park is great.
Skibum — you will note I mentioned your point in my blurb about the VIX early this morning… even with the market up 200 pts early, it was up 25 bips….
“Sailors take warn.”
Donny has a hot air balloon rental bidness?
Is that why you hate oil? Propane prices?
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Jake … are you related to Keith Olbermann?
just kidding … what a circle jerk that fucker is.
nope, Donny is into mini-robotics, Silicon Valley style, he has a miniature mechanical Fly buzzing around SoCal
FLY
Will we see steel stocks fall off a cliff like banks,oil,etc? If so, what would you short?
Last week I bought Sept 55 puts on Tenaris (TS)in anticipation of it breaking down- Its working out well. It still has plenty of room to the downside.
http://finviz.com/publish/090208/TS1dl1629.png
Fly-
How do you like WNR, long-term? I’m a believer in CLMT.
It’s been too tough. If you are up this year, bravo. You are good.
It is not easy to navigate markets like this. To do so, you need a “calculator brain,” no doubt.
its a traders ( wealth creator) paradise….now if you are a money manager ( wealth conserver) its been a nightmare.
the news needs to be turned off here and just stick with what the charts are saying…if you can read… them if you can’t read them then now is the time to get yourself immeresed in your market studies.
Thanks Donny, keep us/me posted.
I’m going to ask some questions to the adults I know who bank coin, see what they say.
http://www.google.com/chrome
X-1 funds to close 😛
Nice try LEH
+1 for Chrome. Testing/Using it right now.
Still Standing
Q4…..myspace or youtube with these video uploads using IBank’s valuable memory….with junk that in no way will ever help anyone pull a cent….
+2 for Chrome. Good call, DP.
Now let’s do some fucking DD.
Link to Ospraie’s holdings as of 6/30. The bulk of their investment is in XTO, IP and CYT.
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate-Institution-Portfolio.php?DV=yes&institutionid=5295
saw that at matt’s thanks topper
I just realized Fly that your muni call was the second greatest of the year, even before the oil debacle today and your claims of second greatest call last week.
1st – calling huge drop in Jan.
2nd – Munis are broke
People just aren’t talking enough about #2.