iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,316 Blog Posts

The Bear is Not Dead

At the moment, Government intervention is too much for the bears. Despite the U.S. being the epicenter of all toxic mortgage paper, we have outperformed all other indices around the world.

Why, you might ask?

Answer: We manipulate the markets better than they do.

Think about all the credit issues, corporate fraud [[PAY]], earnings misses [[M]] and negative economic data. Think about you stupid fuck.

We’re only down 5% for the year. Ha! A fucking laugher.

Now, one of two things is going to occur.

Either the economy is strong and unemployment remains under 5%, effectively deballing the “recession now” crowd, or we really are in the “shitbox,” which will send the Dow off the fucking Empire State building.

This middle of the of the road shit is not for me and will not stand.

I’m not a quant guy. I do not use Meriwether mathematical models to blow up my book of business. I trade with instincts and common sense.

In my opinion, into this rally, sell the banks, via [[SKF]], sell commercial Re, via [[SRS]] and sell basic resources, via [[SMN]] and go long gold, via [[DGP]] is the only plan of action that makes any sense.

Should we print all time highs this year, I’ll eat [[C]] 10-k, and film it on youtube for everyone to witness.

NOTE: Eventually, the fuckers chasing performance, bidding up [[POT]] will have their day in hell. The run ups in ag names are absurd. Quite a bubble.

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44 comments

  1. Juice

    I think we’re at least 60% thru this rally off the BSC is sold to you for $2.00, bottom.

    NOTE: I accumulated a record 76 neg karma pts earlier today off Fly’s 1st post du jour. Break that record, fuckers.

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  2. maxamilliondolla
    maxamilliondolla

    well 80% of americans are financially illiterate
    and the other 20 are sheeple thats why they still remain bullish amidst negative data damn bottom fishers wait till the shit hits the fan someone else is going down

    your reccomendations are on point and oh yeah fuck
    jim cramer

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  3. The Fly

    Juice:

    What are you buying/selling?

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  4. The Fly

    Duc:

    Naturally, I disagree with everything you say or think.

    The market is ALWAYS correlated with the economy. However, sometimes it takes time for prices to catch up to reality.

    For example: inverted yield curve way before the credit crisis emerged.

    Eventually, the market will reflect what is going on in the real world.

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  5. The Fly

    And Duc, for goats sake, just post something in the PG, with a link back to your site.

    It’s beneath you to link whore in the comments section.

    After all, you are a former iBC blogger. Fucking act like it.

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  6. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    I think that retail sales are a better indicator of the health of the consumer than employment stats, which are subject to all kinds of B.S. adjustments.

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  7. El Tiberon

    Fly,

    I agree with you the market fundamentals are all wrong and the shit will hit the fan.

    Most of your readers are too young, but I remember sitting and watching the Oct ’87 crash on the DowJones Telerate Terminal…it can surely happen again even with all of the stops in place and everyone being smarter…

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  8. El Tiberon

    duc,

    I can’t believe you put that in writing.

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  9. The Fly

    El Tib:

    You alarm me with your statement.

    Are you above the age 47 1/2?

    As you know, this site is free of old fuckers, despite their wonderful stories and priceless wisdom.

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  10. Juice

    Why you want to know what I’m doing? I’m overall negative, like you & your disciples here, yet I do try to capture/get out of the way of, tradable rallies.

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  11. calvino

    Malurker – I went to prep school in CT, and tooks osme business classes in PhilaPa, with a bit of a stint in the merchant marines. Howard Davidowitz is the best retail analyst working, imho, and he thinks that times a going aboom. the boom of of the guillotine being that.

    update – Sharky, you dudes had portfolio insurance, which is just for pissants, we have CDSes, trillions of them.. we can’t fail.

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  12. larry

    Alias: BPOE

    A good QUANT trades like the FLY. He only used mathematical models to fake out the Boss. Real Quants know math is for meditation. Mathematical models only work for rolling dice etc.

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  13. The Fly

    “Why you want to know what I’m doing? I’m overall negative, like you & your disciples here, yet I do try to capture tradable rallies.”

    I’m curious. You’ve been pretty good with your calls, lately.

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  14. Woodshedder

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080402/23914826.html?.v=1

    From Faber’s report, late last night.

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  15. El Tiberon

    Fly,

    No, not that old just a finance dork at an early age…and full of piss & vinegar not wisdom and Grandpa Simpson Stories…”We wore an onion on our belts ’cause it was the war…”

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  16. Juice

    You butter me up with your flattery, for future slaughter.

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  17. Big Mike

    Fly,

    BUY XHB as a long hedge… you know those assholes in Washington will come out with a bailout bill for homeowners…aka Dodd-Frank bill (wont help, but market will take it as positive). We just broke through major technicals and still maintains an upward trend since Jan.

    What the hell you trade your basis on? Common sense??? Ohh…whats that like?

    Anybody know why the fuck is POT up? I thought MON, MOS, POT were all correlated.

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  18. boca

    POT is up because of the pending shortage of bat guano and fish meal fertilizer from Peru. Kidding! just wanted to use the term “bat guano” in an iBC post.

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  19. Granpa

    Juice, other than the godly Fly, I most look forward to your sharp insights.Cheer up, fuck all that neagative karma. You know who you are.

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  20. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    Calvino:

    Thanks for the suggestion. Do you know where I can get his commentary (other than paying attention to CBS, which I deplore)ie does he have a newsletter/blog/column for the masses?

    Also, at the risk of getting you banned from this blog, are you over or under 47.5 years old? Just trying to place your influences in terms of your writing style……….

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  21. Joey Donut

    “I think that retail sales are a better indicator of the health of the consumer than employment stats, which are subject to all kinds of B.S. adjustments.”

    Both are in the shithole, yet the market rallies. Boggles my mind… but what do I know, I’m just an average dumb Joey Bag O Donut.

    Ford Sales down 14%
    GM Sales Down 13% (GM Blames Consumer Confidence)
    Toyota Sales Down 3.4%
    U.S. Retailer Group Cuts Sales Estimate Second Time.

    “In my 29 years of research, consumers are doing exactly what they said they are going to do: they’re not spending,” Beemer said in a telephone interview. He said his firm interviews 8,000 to 15,000 consumers a week.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/march-auto-roundup-and-retail-sales.html

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  22. El Tiberon

    duc,

    btw if that’s how you think please post your longs and we can call it the Ducat Short Index…

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  23. Mushroom Stamp

    I would like to see some more “technical analysis” from The Fly.

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  24. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    IMHO in order to get a real picture of consumer health, pay close attention to consumer durable (ignore airlines and govt purchases) and consumer discretionary sales comps, headline inflation (f*ck that core BS) real growth in personal income, and now housing price and sales stats. Other than seasonal adjustments, its a rather clean number.

    Employment on the other hand is subject to a ridiculous amount of guesstimations for practically every aspect of the figures used in its calculation

    btw I agree with you that retail figures have been abysmal (hence my bearish positioning) and will probably get significantly worse soon. Just look at what CFO’s are saying. Arguably they are closest to this all.

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  25. JakeGint

    Calvin —

    Loomis Chafe-me, or Groton Submariners?

    Can’t remember if Horace Mann is in CT or not… maybe Poughkeepsie?

    Philly Cheeze has to be Warts-on, unless you went to Drexel or some-pin like that.

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  26. calvino

    Malurker – are you taking out a contract on me? darn it. I got a couple of years on Martay, although I am in much better shape, since I do some yard work myself instead of letting the illegal crew do my yard in.

    Jakey – Groton – not me – I liked watching field hockey after classes. I went to school with Al, the guy from Catcher. Drexel is a fine engineering school, however I wanted to be an inside trader and there are much better schools in PhilaPa for that.

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  27. JakeGint

    Ahhh… Villanova!

    (chuckle — that’s where my Dad went)

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  28. JakeGint

    I got a Wharton kid working for me right now.

    (Cheeky little pissant.)

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  29. Employee8

    Lots of shooting stars on the financials especially C …. Skiffles looks good …

    S/B buying puts here on RIMM, looks toppy no?

    Gold rallying for now and GFI looks sweet with an AM Doji Star …

    Just saying …. Viz?

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  30. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    Calvino:

    nope just harmless curiosity

    For some reason I kept picturing you as some 30’s bootlegger turned trader

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  31. JoeyBagofTricks
    JoeyBagofTricks

    $1M bet

    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/

    LMAO!

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  32. Hare Krishna

    Juice- have you had enough negative kharma [sic] for today, or are you thirsty for more? That goes for you too, granpa.

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  33. reality

    MON’s ceo looks like fuking Johnny Appleseed

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  34. alphadawgg

    It’s not too late to get into FXP here.

    People will boycott the Olympics. The Dalai Lama has decreed it.

    Markets are fucked up in that way, you know.

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  35. JJ2000426

    The Fly:

    The rally of PAL was delayed by just one day. Today is the first big day. Mean while, enjoy my new article which argues with Gene Epstein. Did he work for you?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/70907-investing-in-a-resource-constrained-world-part-iii

    Where do you think a good price to short LEH will be? Any gut shorting GS?

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  36. JakeGint

    Alright Calvin, I like a puzzle as much as anyone, but the only “Al” in Catcher in the Rye is his little bro who kicked the bucket from (whispered) “cancah.”

    I don’t recall Salinger ever even mentioning where Allie went to school, unless it was also Pency, or Elkton Hills, which are both fictional.

    I’m going to take another stab, because I forgot about Taft (pronounced “Tahhft” by crew advocates) and remembered that Hotchkiss was also in CT, not NY like I thought.

    Not sure why the crack on Groton… was it all chix when you was a lad?

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  37. Granpa

    Hairy Kris, you make me wana hear Zappa do Cosmik Debris.

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  38. JakeGint

    Is there going to be an “end of the day post?”

    Or is this it?

    Because I want to nominate Bill Gross for Asshat of the Century!

    I mean, when exactly did he become a full blown freaking Commie?

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  39. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    Jake:

    Closeted communist aside, IMO his comments on housing with respect to the consumer are dead on.

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  40. JakeGint

    So the answer is to prop up overvalued assets? You realize that 15% of the people who took out a mortgage in 2005 put “zero down.”

    And I’m supposed to take the hit for that asshattery to bail out Bill Gross’s book?

    Fuck him.

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  41. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    Jake:
    I was referring to this:

    Gross goes on to note that “homes are the most highly levered and monetarily significant asset that American consumers own, if they decline much further they will drag the rest of the economy with them,”

    With respect to his solution to this crisis, my sentiments echo yours.

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  42. yeomps

    I say take the $1,000,000 gold bet and put 2 million into gold over the next few months. That will give some nice downside protection… and if you lose the bet, you will still be up atleast $400,000. meanwhile gold can go down to 450 before you see a loss.

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  43. JJ2000426

    The FLY:

    Early today I urged you to read the article and buy PAL. Look it’s up 7.34% today. The next wave of rally just started.

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