iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,785 Blog Posts

Is AAPL Eating RIMM’s Lunch?

It’s hard not to notice the recent divergence between the share prices of RIMM and AAPL.

For a long time, both stocks traded in lock step—with RIMM outperforming by a slight margin.

However, since late November, RIMM‘s stock price has plummeted, more than 30%, while AAPL presses higher.

Taking the iPhone into consideration, is it possible the iPhone is eroding some of RIMM‘s retail/pedestrian market share?

If not, RIMM is 40 bucks cheap.

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23 comments

  1. Woodshedder

    Holy crap, WTF are you doing posting a yahoo chart?

    You are hanging around Ducati too much or something.

    Long AAPL, short RIMM

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  2. Richard A.

    The Rimm Story isn’t being told correctly. RIMM and AAPL are both cheap.

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  3. Pudfucker

    Suppose AAPL and RIMM merged. And the CEO of AAPL became the CEO of the combined entity.

    We’d then have the CEO of:

    RIMM; Jobs.

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  4. DPeezy

    Is this the Fly impostor?
    Your chart and lack of four-letter-word-combinations gives you away.

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  5. The Fly

    No one will ever post as me—fuckface.

    There is someone posting comments, with my name.

    That’s all.

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  6. alphadawgg

    Blackberrys are flying off the shelves. They are outselling the iPhone. If you don’t believe me, look it up.

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  7. V. Pandit and K. Lewis
    V. Pandit and K. Lewis

    We are about to put 4% of RIMM’s user base in the unemployment line.

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  8. JakeGint

    They will need those Crackberries for networking then.

    And warmth.

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  9. crawford

    The Apple story is waaaaay bigger than iPhone. That’s just a bit of frosting.
    Comparing the two is only doing RIMM an injustice.

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  10. DPeezy

    AAPL has a lot more going for it than just the iPhone. RIMM is a 1-trick pony.

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  11. JakeGint

    Volume drying up. What can Ben do for an encore?

    I know!

    More coordination!

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  12. mrkcbill

    This ought to be pretty good!

    Debate

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  13. Gov. Poole

    Dead….

    until expiration or until LEH implodes

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  14. Danny

    WARNINGS – 8,000 word comment.

    forgive my douchebaggery, but I don’t think it’s an apples to apples (pun?) comparison.

    both are cash rich and debt free. They share that, and a lot of other shit, but valuation wise, AAPL is much cheaper.

    P/S is 6.8 vs 13.
    AAPL’s P/FCF is 61.85, RIMM’s P/FCF is 211.88.

    But, RIMM has a 5yr est. growth of 38%, AAPL 24%.

    So, the val. gap is somewhat justified.

    But…

    But RIMM isn’t as dependent on the consumer, for better or for worse. I think AAPL’s consumer sway will be an advantage. It’s an apple Christmas, not a RIMM one. RIMM has the business smartphone cornered a lucrative market, however, AAPL doesn’t and likely won’t.

    AAPL’s growth, aside from all the products they carry, is in computing. 2 years ago, I was the only one with a mac. Now I can think of something like 30% of my FRIENDS having macs. It will be 30% of PEOPLE before the AAPL move is over.

    RIMM, in a worst case scenario, could “MOT” itself. Keep in mind I am making this up.

    1.) MOT made the RAZR, the most popular phone of the olden days, and that was it, POOF, all their subsequent models sucked. If RIMM somehow doesn’t keep upping the ante, or other manufacturers start to make cooler phones, thats a big problem.

    People buy RIMM because it is really good. If something else is good, that, to me, substantially reduces the desirability of buying a RIMM phone, as opposed to something else. I’m talking about the consumer here.

    So far, iphone may be that threat, but even if it isn’t related, AAPL can grow its comp business, the phones, media selling, istore, blah blah. RIMM can grow it’s subscriber base.

    Definitely interesting what’s happened to RIMM lately, it doesn’t seem like anything with the story changed.

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  15. Danny

    I forgot to add a point–there is nothing that can supersede apple right now, MSFT is dead, but the same isn’t true for RIMM. Sure, Palm is shit, and who else is there, but I see more tangible competition there. The, a la NIHD if the cost to attain a new subscriber goes up, as ARPU growth slows, that be reaaal bad.

    ^hypothetical, since I don’t know what RIMM’s new subscriber costs or ARPU is. I’m just saying, it’s how NIHD was aborted..

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  16. The Fly

    Wasn’t it a new tax change in Brazil that killed NIHD?

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  17. Ragin Cajun

    As you know, AAPL to $300

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  18. newequity

    aapl to $100 and you will be holding.

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  19. Frosty

    FLY…this is all very helpful…confused they are…how quick they forget the pain of yesterday, amazing…let’s all count our APPL profits today, oh my…while Rome is a blaze.

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  20. KC Trader

    I knew the Fly was a closet Technical Analyst.

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  21. Danny

    fly – i think that was just a rumor of a tax, but it was icing on the cake. I’m pretty sure their ARPU was hurt.

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  22. Mike

    Has anyone looked at the Blackberry 9000?
    Due out early Q1…..and wow. Talk about killing the Iphone. It is what a phone would look like if blackberry and iphone had babies.

    Just google it for pre-release pics and specs.

    I am definitely buying this thing. Touch screen and pop down keyboard, sweet!

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