iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,692 Blog Posts

How to Play the Fed

The million dollar question is: will the Fed cut by 25bps or 50bps?

Of course, I believe Bernanke should go gangster on the shorts and do 50. However, most people believe 25 is probable.

Considering how much we have run up, I find it hard to risk too much capital up here. I get the sense, at the very least, we are due for a minor pullback. So, for a hedge, I will be buying some more FXP, down at these levels.

Fuck China.

As for today’s trading:

Well, MVIS did it again. They released some nondescript news, with no financial details, and the stock shit the bed, once again. Basically, investors are bored with the name and want more substance. They want names, dollar committments and technological progress.

With any luck, the stock will get bid up during CES.

Apparently, iiG has bottomed. I just took out a trading position on it. Nothing big—just a tester.

Select retail names have mojo, like LULU, TBL and VLCM. However, for the most part, the sector is toxic.

GNSS was put out of their misery, being bought out at absurdly low levels. On that news, TRID is enjoying a bounce. To me, it’s unbelievable how commoditized the semi’s have become. They suck.

Finally, energy, networkers and ag stocks look decent. However, for now, ahead of Bernanke, I’m more interested in throwing lunch meat at my trader/servant, than fucking around, buying stocks here.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

33 comments

  1. Woodshedder

    And don’t forget GES. Evidently earnings DIDN’T get in the way of my bearshitting.

    Also, I can’t help but feel that bulls are getting played as fools. UBS, and now Freddie, again, reporting billions. Its like they are saying, “We’ll hit them while they’re all giddy from the recent rally. No one will care, or notice…”

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. Leawoodblues

    My stock trading robot has announced he will unleash a short squeeze program on RIMM in last hour today…..LTCM style.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. CubsRock

    jfc, should have bought some WM last night. Anyone like CFC here?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. The Fly

    I’m long cfc.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. mdawsz

    I think we get a half point, otherwise I agree there will be some weakness. Fed knows its role.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. B Bernanke

    I’ve got your back

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. CubsRock

    Nice, I think I’ll piggyback 😛

    Maybe the Cubs will win to!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. mdawsz

    Thanks Ben, love the beard.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. JakeGint

    There is no fucking question its a half point.

    Why in the hell else would all the news orgs be saying a quarter?

    How else do they get their fake pop for the sell off?

    At a quarter, it’s straight down, no passing go.

    How fucking stupid do they think we are, really?

    As dumb as the people who read the news?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. DPeezy

    JWN also looking good in retail. Should hit $40 within the next week. Especially with a 50 point cut.
    RAD has been bid up by some strange circumstance as well. My Dec07 5.00 Calls may yet become non-worthless!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. The Fly

    Jake:

    You sound paranoid. However, it’s worth noting, people are out to get you.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. PleaseKillMe

    Fly, with your 105 years in trading, you know for a fact that the MVIS PR is just fluff. It’s like me a salesman sending out a PR stating I just had a sales meeting with a client.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  13. The Fly

    PKM

    Not really.

    While I agree the PR was forced, there are real underlying deals.

    They are just unable to elaborate.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  14. mdawsz

    PKM, the MVIS press releases are like a pop up advertisement in your face when you’re trying to eat breakfast.

    Jake, seriously, I think you need to get outside more.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  15. Andy

    CNBC was calling it the trillion dollar question this morning, so you must be poor.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  16. greeener

    i don’t understand MVIS’s management, they make the same mistakes again, do they live in a cave, common sense isn’t very common

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  17. Green Writer

    50 basis points on the Discount
    50 basis points on the Fed funds rate.
    That is what we need to inverse the inverted yield curve.
    Fly is right uncle Ben needs to go American Ganster…….great flick by the way.

    Have fun fucking China…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  18. Remember the “Milk the Farmer” Post?

    Looks like Mr. Jubak has taken the idea and built a whole column around it. I prefer the Fly’s post
    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/ProfitFromRisingFoodPrices.aspx

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  19. The Fly

    “The Fly” will sue this Juback character.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  20. Steve

    Every wise guy is expecting a sell off if we only get a quarter. I’m buying the dip if it happens.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  21. JakeGint

    I was just outside, coming back from a board meeting. It’s beautiful out today, btw.

    I heard that “quarter point” bullshit on the Bloomberg radio.

    Complete bullshit.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  22. Hank Paulson's TradeBot
    Hank Paulson's TradeBot

    The mother of all Tech rally’s is about to begin

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  23. JakeGint

    And believe me, I couldn’t be happier if it were a quarter point, as that would flush us but quick.

    But there is no farking way.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  24. newequity

    big money trade for you guys.

    Sell the GTOP Jan 2.50 puts and take in $1.35 premium. The results of myvax are due out by Jan and the stock is at $3.4. If it fails, the stock will drop and you will likely still make money(if it stays above $1.15). If victory is declared the stock goes up and you make 100% profit($140 per contract sold).

    disclosure- I have an order to sell 10 at $1.35 and 20 at $1.40

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  25. The Fly

    How about a Fed hike?

    That would be a surprise, yet unamusing.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  26. Steve

    How about JJ making money on his FSLR short? What about that?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  27. JakeGint

    Fed needs to hike.

    But won’t in a million years.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  28. mdawsz

    Financials moving up in front of Ben.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  29. JakeGint

    Shocked! shocked!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  30. LKudlow

    This market is the greatest story never told. Even if the Fed raised by 50bps this market finishes the year above 1600.

    Fly:

    You didn’t tell me where we are meeting today after the close.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  31. JakeGint

    This is awesome to watch going into the Fed announcement.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  32. wolf

    This is fun. Good news is the market usually snaps back from the initial move. Looking to enter RIMM here. This thing has bottomed here, IMO>

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  33. JakeGint

    You go, Wolfie.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"