Joined May 7, 2012
169 Blog Posts

$COIN ETF decision approaches

March 11 marks the day the SEC will hand down it’s decision on the Winklevoss backed Bitcoin ETF $COIN.

Bitcoin has rallied on the rumor of approval and fresh capital hitting Bitcoin via an ETF. As a result, Bitcoin touched on all time highs. There are two numbers to crack for Bitcoin to be in uncharted territory: the Mt Gox Exchange high of $1265 and parity with gold.

If the ETF passes some are predicting Bitcoin will fast track $5,000+. Bitcoin’s “market cap” is ~18B, or just slightly larger than TWTR. A Bitcoin ETF would cause a strong rally. Do I recommend COIN? No, I recommend you hold your own Bitcoins over an ETF the same as I recommend holding your gold over GLD.

If the ETF fails Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Bitcoin may see a 20% correction. Buy Bitcoin there.

I don’t believe the ETF will pass and I think that’s the right decision. Bitcoin is still evolving. Labeling Bitcoin as a commodity via ETF would be like labeling AOL in early 90’s as “the Internet”. The Internet evolved bigly from the early days of AOL. Bitcoin is in that kind of early phase.

My advice? Stop masturbating for 20 minutes and invest a few minutes to improve your mind and impact your piker bank account long term. Buy a hardware wallet. Buy some bitcoins. You’ll be an early adopter and find out how easy it is to use digital currency. You can use purse.io to name your own discount on Amazon by paying in Bitcoin. The key is to start now.

Oh, we also have this thing called a debt ceiling coming March 15th. That could really set off some fireworks with Bitcoin price as Trump and Congress twitterjerk themselves into a budget war.

(HOUSEKEEPING) I’ve been bashing GBTC for over a year. In a comment section somewhere I stated GBTC was an OK buy if you only had retirement accounts and wanted Bitcoin exposure. I am revoking that comment and reinstating that GBTC is complete garbage.


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Bitcoin longs Ramsay Bolton’ed

The news about the PBOC investigating exchanges is verified true and is being blown into a FUD tornado, or FUDNADO, if you will. In a world full of FUD it’s no surprise.

Filtering the noise…..the Exchanges are not Bitcoin any more than the S&P500 is Google. Nothing has changed about Bitcoin.

Exchange regulation is a sign of Bitcoin’s increasing influence and legitimacy.

I won’t be surprised if PBOC closes an Exchange. It’s long term irrelevant. Barring that this may be last time we see 700’s. Bitcoin has survived Mt Gox, Cryptsy and Bitfinex.

Either way we are definitely separating the longs from the wannabes here.

And anything is possible. Bitcoin is risky. Don’t fuck around with it if you can’t handle it AND if you don’t have at least a few coins you may be missing the opportunity of the century.

As you were, fuckheads.

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Tips hat to OA for his well timed Bitcoin sell. Excellent as usual.

Now, for the rest of the Internet declaring Bitcoin is dead please review these other 120 obituaries written about Bitcoin going back to 2010.

You see, Bitcoin is a Sewer Rat. Bitcoin has been declared dead and crawled out of the grave many times to continue to rise in value and credibility.

No entity or government controls Bitcoin. No Fed, no PBOC, no EU. Just pure market dynamics. Bitcoin is not dead, it’s just getting started. And like many disruptor in early stages, Bitcoin is volatile as fuck. Caveat Emptor. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of Bitcoin. To the early adopters go the greatest rewards.

And for the newcomers, here are some FACTS:

  • Bitcoin is the best performing currency 6 of last 7 years.
  • Bitcoin is at ~16B USD market cap. Slightly larger than Twitter. 10x that is peanuts in financial world.
  • There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. That’s .003 per human on the planet.
  • BTC is easily divisible to .00000001
  • A $1 trillion market cap in Bitcoin is $62,500 PER BITCOIN
  • Capital flight from China has been closely linked to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin could retrace to ~$720, which takes us all the way back to … late November. If that’s the case I’ll be buying by the boatload. See you at $10k.

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New Year, New Market Cap High in Bitcoin

On December 7th with Bitcoin at ~$770 I posted you had your last chance to buy before a run to $1,000.

Today Bitcoin hit $1,000. That’s ~25% return in less than 30 days.

What now? Well, here’s a possible scenario:


I don’t like the vertical upward trend. It’s too volatile, however the long term trend is the cup and handle. Target: $1,400 for a buy and hold. It’s going to be very choppy so if you act have a strong hand and you’ll be rewarded nicely.

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This is your Final Warning

Bitcoin is ready to explode. This is your last chance to get on board before we visit $1,000 and beyond.

This vid starts with an ex FB exec redpilling the audience with Bitcoin. Then we have Richard Branson and a few other folks talk about Bitcoin.



That is BTCUSD vs FANG. BTCUSD is cucking FANG. In fact, BTCUSD is cucking everything. And Bitcoin is just getting started.


U.S. markets are at the effect of central bankers desperately easing to keep the public placated and it’s worked with market ATH but it hasn’t solved anything. When all else has failed CB have resorted to BTFD. Everything from the central bankers is fake news, designed to keep those in power atop the heap. Employment, inflation, GDP…all fake to promote a message with an agenda that the sheeple are OK. In reality, trillions are given to banks making every one of your dollars worth less.

Tbe banks are backstopped by the government. Imagine the horrible decisions you’d make if you knew there were NO consequences. You won’t go to jail, in fact, you’ll likely be richer! Combine that environment with ample cocaine use and you have our current situation.

The graft perpetrated on the public by banks and governments is coming to an end. Those market ATH will not be sustainable and it’s a long way down. Best case scenario, there is a heavy rotation into infrastructure under #MAGA. However, MAGA will only make a new bubble and it’s net output depends on taxes. MAGA is not salvation, only another mirage.

How long have we been collectively waiting for the shoe to drop in the market? Fuck the market. At a minimum, put some of your funds into Bitcoin. Make Bitcoin your smallest allocation. Or fucking kick yourself next year for not buying cheap insurance when Bitcoin moons and the market implodes.

Still think Bitcoin is a joke? Tell that to the list of bitcoin wallets on this page, some of which hold over $95,000,000. If Bitcoin is good enough for them it’s good enough for your piker balance.

Bitcoin ATH is a measly ~$12B market cap. $12B is PEANUTS in the financial world. The upside is ridiculously huge. Do you realize our monetary system stopped evolving in the tech equivalent of the pony express. Try to send a wire recently? It takes days and costs $50! It’s ridiculous. Bitcoin is about as easy as sending an email and just as fast. Western Union $WU has a market cap equal to Bitcoin. Bitcoin can easily grow 10x from where it stands today.

Here’s the true value though. Bitcoin is an immutable ledger immune to government influence. A transaction on the blockchain costs pennies, can move millions and no third party is necessary. Think about the impact of that. No 3rd party is necessary. Banks and governments can’t stop Bitcoin. Banks are powerless to insert their tentacles and siphon from the public. Money for the people, by the people.

Bitcoin and blockchain are the biggest technical and financial developments in our lifetimes. It’s a revolution in how we transact value globally. Are you going to pass up profiting from it?

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Money has nowhere to hide

India demonetization, Italy’s referendum as a precursor to leaving the Euro, Venezuela hyper-inflation, negative interest rates, the Euro and USD almost at parity.

What’s it all mean?


Last month’s prime example: India is putting their cow worshipping population under the boot and forcing them to open bank accounts so the Government can more efficiently rob their own people.

And what’s the message? The people are there to serve the government, not the other way around. It’s like this clip in Goodfellas:

Negative interest rates encourage people to hoard their savings outside the system in cash. How to counter that? Demonetize large bills to flush that currency back through the system. This is already happening all over the world.

Money has nowhere to hide.

Consider, money is how you store the product of your life’s labor. It represents the value you’ve produced. Do you feel comfortable having that wealth and stored labor locked up in a USD bank account that is a few keystrokes away from being raided by the Fed?

In a bank your money is an entry in a database. In reality, it’s not your money at that point. You don’t own it and you can’t touch it. Banks are trading digits on a ledger that can be manipulated at will until the Government decides to devalue or confiscate what you believe is your money. Don’t think it can happen? It’s happened before. It’s happening almost weekly in China with Yuan devaluation.

How does one track the trend of money having nowhere to hide?

Here’s how Bitcoin did vs Gold in November:


And Bitcoin vs the Dollar:


But you argue, “the dollar is so strong vs everything else!” Well, vs the Mexican Peso, yes. The Chinese funny money Yuan, sure. The Euro, of course. That’s like an adult beating up a child. Is it really something to be proud of?

USD has also beaten Gold the past month, but over the last 100 years Gold has murdered the USD. Gold ETFs have created a paper gold market that has been setting the price of Gold. When those ETFs collapse, the real price of Gold will be determined. Hint: Gold will be much higher.

So what now? Where can you store your wealth that is out of the reach of any Government? The answer is Bitcoin (or Gold and Silver in your physical possession). No government controls Bitcoin. It’s decentralized. Moving $100,000 costs the same as moving $10 and NO one can stop you from doing it. Gold is great but Bitcoin is much more convenient and is being labeled as “The Internet of Money”.

What does Internet of Money mean? If you remember the Internet when webpages were almost all text and dial up speeds were 14.4 on a modem on a phone line, that’s where Bitcoin is today. It’s evolving. Buying Bitcoin now is like buying MSFT in 1989.

So what does all that mean for investing? Fuck if I know. You aren’t paying me for advice so you fucking put it together you lazy fuck.

I can say this chart shows a cup and handle and an inverse head and shoulders for Bitcoin. Kind of like those pictures where it’s either an old lady or a young woman, depending on how you look at it.


Bitcoin is the New Style.

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War on Cash

On November 8th Indian Prime Minister Modi did something unusual:

India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation.

The hidden intention is to also increase tax revenue which is way below average for a developed country because most transactions in India are in cash. In fact, buying a house in India often involves a suitcase of cash exchanging hands. Driving the majority of this suitcase cash through a bank forces criminals and savers alike to declare their savings with the government, which is taxed heavily above a comically low threshold. As a result of that tax you can sell your old bills in the streets at a 20-30% discount to avoid the nice government folks.


Gold, which is a traditional store of value and has a high cultural value in India, is selling at almost a 100% markup. (warning: zerohedge quote incoming)

97% of the Indian economy is cash-based. With 88% of all outstanding currency no longer usable, the economy is coming to a standstill. The daily-wage laborer, who leads a hand-to-mouth existence in a country with GDP per capita of a mere $1,600, no longer has work, as his employer has no cash to pay his wages.

People are now converting whatever they can into gold, silver, and mostly for the first time into the US dollar and other foreign currencies as well, all of which are trading at huge premiums. Money is also moving out of the country. Gold has shot up to as much as $2,800 per ounce, if you can find it.

Consider India a ground war on cash. Before you discount this as a problem only for India other Countries are already winning a cyber war on Cash. There’s Sweden, which unlike India, is 97% cashless thanks to Swish.

“I don’t use cash any more, for anything,” said Louise Henriksson, 26, a teaching assistant. “You just don’t need it. Shops don’t want it; lots of banks don’t even have it. Even for a candy bar or a paper, you use a card or phone.”

Swedish buses have not taken cash for years, it is impossible to buy a ticket on the Stockholm metro with cash, retailers are legally entitled to refuse coins and notes, and street vendors – and even churches – increasingly prefer card or phone payments.

According to central bank the Riksbank, cash transactions made up barely 2% of the value of all payments made in Sweden last year.

The same week Modi outlawed India currency notes Trump won the US election for POTUS. This happens to coincide with Blockchain announcing a record surge in new Bitcoin wallets.

“We’re setting a new record pretty much every day since the election in terms of activity on the platform.

“People are basically hedging against economic instability. It’s a worrying time to be holding a lot of British pounds or if you’re American — people flee to safe haven assets. Bitcoin is one of those.”

If we give 100% control over our stored labor (cash) to the banks government they will do what’s best for them with your cash and you will have zero recourse. Personally, if I had your cash I could burn mine!

With a Bitcoin wallet you become your own bank which allows frictionless, low cost transactions.

With 1 billion people in India now subject to new levels of taxation will they turn to Bitcoin? That remains to be seen. The richest man in India is setting up free 4G for all of India, that certainly helps!

The great fiat experiment is in various stages across the world. With a record number of new Bitcoin wallets being established and a country of 1 Billion facing controls on their cash will we see a surge in demand for Bitcoin? I think so.

Bitcoin was up from $696 to $740 in past 48 hours when this was posted.

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Bitcoin to Supermoon

Since I posted about Bitcoin in August at $575 it has moved to $750 and is currently resting at ~$710.

Bitcoin is in a $20 trading range the past 48 hours. Ain’t nobody got time for that.

Bitcoin is going to move soon and it could be big. Bitcoin doesn’t give a shit about China Yuan devaluation, the price of Oil, lying politicians with illegal email Servers or even pussy grabbing Orange Swans.

Bitcoin thinks little of these things.

To prove my point I provide the infallible balloon animal chart.


It’s that simple. See you at $1,000.

For the more traditional TA purist, Bitcoin has formed a huge cup and handle long term. I expect a move further north soon.


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Meanwhile in Cryptocurrency…

Bitcoin has breached $690. Needham is out with a research paper with lots of pretty charts setting a target of $848. Here’s a one month chart of Bitcoin vs Gold.


But the real news of the day is the launch of a new Cryptocurrency called Zcash. Zcash has nailed the hype machine. They are releasing the first 100 coins today. Zcash insiders are positioned to cash in large as the unwashed masses fight over those 100 coins. The first few coins started trading moments ago.

Here is a live feed of the developers during launch (screenshot below). Notice it looks like it’s a set from Silicon Valley. You cannot make this shit up.


There are now over 700 Cryptocurrencies in the world, or just over double the number of officially recognized fiat currencies. This is fucking stupid and unsustainable. They will consolidate.

Bitcoin is still the King. All hail the King.

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10 reasons Trump will win

Elections are like Baseball. It only gets interesting when the playoffs start.

Here’s why Trump will win:

1) Russia. What the fuck are we doing? The voters are tired of the US being the world’s policeman. Trump may be a nut but he’s a nut focused inwardly on our problems vs ginning up some drama with Putin. Focusing inward is the best domestic and foreign policy by any POTUS or candidate in the past 30 years. Make America Great Again (except with less racism involved).

2) The Fed. Trump has called them out. He may crash western finance as we know it once in office but it was going to happen anyway. At least he’d be a POTUS dealing with reality vs fiction.

3) Trump is what he is. He’s a xenophobic billionaire womanizer. Who fucking cares. We all have flaws. He’s owned most of his crap and it’s only made him more relatable. It makes him trustworthy by comparison that his cards are on the table.

4) Polls showed Brexit would fail because it was impolite dinner conversation but when in the privacy of a voting booth people pulled the lever that was anti-establishment. I think we’ll see a lot of that in November and it’s not measured in pre election polls.

5) Trump will get more of the woman and minority vote than people are predicting. People are more willing to take the bad with the good than is estimated.

6) “Anything but this” syndrome. The public are so fed up they’ll take a sharp stick in the eye to avoid continuing to get reamed up the ass. The issues may not matter to them, they just want “different”. On some level they know they are voting for a revolution. Consider he’s the least worst candidate.

7) He’s a billionaire and yet he can still get more connected to Middle America than HRC, even if he’s tweeting ad hominem attacks from this gold toilet bowl at 3AM. You may not like what he’s saying but you can get why he’s saying it.

8) He’s survived more attacks than any candidate ever. He’s the fucking honey badger of POTUS election cycles.

9) Trump didn’t cheat Bernie Sanders out of his shot to be the nominee.

10) He’s an American success story. He may have had a leg up and acted like a dick but he’s a billionaire and that draws people in. It says nothing about him being suited for political office but a successful outsider appeals more than an ineffective career politician.

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