You thought I was kidding when I said I am dead inside. I am a black hole. Throw catastrophic losses that would have most traders set themselves on fire and I don’t even blink. No emotion.
Experiencing a 60% drawdown within 36 hours frays your nervous system. This isn’t my first rodeo so I watch in amusement while newbies assume the fetal position on busy highways.
There is no shortcut to get here. You must burn in the fires of Crypto. A lot of Crypto Tuition got paid out tonight. Hopefully you paid attention. If you panic sold the bottom, thank you. Please drive through.
Bitcoin Cash chart, a tidy .786 fib correction. It’s bounced 40% off the lows IN THE PAST HOUR.
Riding out these swings is like riding a bicycle. I can tell you what it’s like but until you ride a bike you don’t get to experience what I’m telling you about. Now, you get to experience a crypto style correction. We do this shit right, like we invented it. If Crypto had a VIX it would be pegged at 1,000,000 right now.
It’s late and I’m tired so I’m going to do what any sane person does who is down 50% since yesterday. I’m going to bed and I will sleep like a baby.
I hope you picked up some BCH, XMR or EOS on this dip. They all got hammered. Congrats on your baptism.
You took some profit right? You had a trading plan. You executed it flawlessly. Your fibs were drawn with care and your stops optimized for textbook 4:1 Risk/Reward ratios. Good.
If not, enjoy this feeling. Nothing has you more alive than a swift 20% market wide correction. Your portfolio decimated, your plans for next year’s vacation wiped out. It may not be pleasant but you will survive, stronger for the experience.
Pain will be of the Hellraiser variety but stay the course. Don’t indulge in the pain because this is when you need to go to work. You make money when you buy in Crypto and buying opportunities are coming. The moves in Crypto are violent. Crypto markets are mass psychology in fast forward motion. Be a student of it but don’t let it run you.
Your lighthouse in this storm is this: you are playing the long game. This is the early innings in a multi decade shift in how financial transactions happen worldwide. This is bigger than the Internet. Do not lose sight of this fact. This dip will be a blip on the chart months from now. Don’t chump out for a 20% daily drawdown.
We will look at our favorite coins and we will find that sweetest support. We’ll bid that support and we will be victorious.
We are the heroes in this movie. In the first act you meet the hero. In the second act the hero is in jeopardy. In the third act the hero kills everyone. This is the second act. Soon we will be beheading market participants and drinking from their skulls.
I’ve have not traded any coins since late October. I am irresponsibly allocated in BCH with a very small position in EOS. BCH is my long term monster play in crypto. EOS is my potential moonshot and I will rebuy XMR as my anonymous coin angle, possibly soon.
If Bitcoin is the Honey Badger then Monero is the Pony Badger. (Monero’s lead dev goes by the name FluffyPony)
If you’ve been following me I mention XMR often. I have no position now. In fact, I sold it at $85. Today Monero is a few dollars away from $500. You’d think this would be me right now:
But I’m not. When I sold XMR at $85 I bought BCH at $380.
You can see how this much winning can get old.
XMR is THE anonymous crypto. $ZEC is not anonymous by default and their initial launch was kinda shady. XMR has scheduled hardforks, a system for funding improvements and so far has proven to be reliable and unbreakable. Makes it a unique and valuable coin.
I don’t give specific trades because this blog is purely entertainment and not financial advice. AND, looking at a chart $360 has a decent chance of getting a fill on flash pullback.
Keep in mind we are building the most elaborate financial sandcastles. One strong wave will wipe the beach clean except for the strongest coins. These are epic times. Winning is easy. Just protect your house from the inevitable wipeout.
Post wipeout and expectations reset we’ll change the world.
Charlie Lee AKA @SatoshiLite, the founder of Litecoin, is in the news today saying he has sold all of his LTC due to potential conflicts of interest. In typical Crypto nerd fashion he wrote a Reddit post about it. Reddit is garbage but here’s the link and a screenshot from last week where Mr Lee said he does not like to talk about price.
I’m sure the timing of this has nothing to do with the fact LTC has gone from under $4 to over $300 in the past NINE MONTHS. That would be speculating right?
LTC is down 10% on the day. Do you see anyone writing letters to the SEC about it?
Charlie is a smart guy. He gets abused frequently and has mostly been above the fray of personal insults. LTC is also very closely tied to BTC. They are the “Gold and Silver” of Crypto.
I don’t begrudge Charlie his success. I admire he’s always been very transparent. I cover this because I believe it’s noteworthy in the crypto space.
If the CEO of your favorite company sold all his stock what would you think?
Bitcoin Cash was listed on Coinbase yesterday and the price enjoyed a violent move upwards. This was all telegraphed and predictable. There are a lot of retail investors looking for crypto exposure and Coinbase is a primary onramp for fiat. So, Christmas came early as I expected BCH to be listed closer to January 1st. Epic winship for anyone who followed me into BCH. Congrats.
And the result is the Bitcoin Core community has reached a new ATH in Butthurt. It’s amazing. To say Crypto Twitter is Bitter is the understatement of the year. I wrote about the division in Bitcoin in previous posts but if you’re new to Crypto Bitcoin Core has been in control of the development and direction of Bitcoin for ~2 years. When Bitcoin Core decided to change the Bitcoin protocol in fundamental ways in August 2017 a group of people created Bitcoin Cash to keep Bitcoin as Bitcoin. Now Bitcoin Cash is enjoying success as a healthy network capable of faster transactions and lower fees than Bitcoin Core and it’s being reflected in a rapid price/value appreciation. This is a great site for visual representation of the performance of the two networks.
The result of yesterday’s Coinbase release is those who adhere to Bitcoin Core are exceptionally salty about Bitcoin Cash’s success. Here’s a few samplings:
Been a busy day. On calls/emails with Number of Investors: – BCash is a PUMP – Supported by "Clown Developers" – Pumped by Ex-Cons & FakeSatoshi – Massive Credibility Issue – Coinbase with "Houdini News" is PLAIN WRONG. Story NOT over! – PS Picture worth a thousand words pic.twitter.com/XzPI3C0vCx
Several people also posted screenshots of their online filing to the SEC complaining about Coinbase listing Bitcoin Cash. BTC, the honey badger of crypto, has become an echo chamber of righteousness in which the horeshit above is nurtured and encouraged.
Bitcoin Core’s network is getting slower and more expensive every day. The Bitcoin Cash community is moving forward with plans for increased user and merchant adoption. 2018 will be a great year.
I used my time machine today to research what positions will be most valuable to the iBC community in 2018.
I returned to find a BCH explosion over $3,000 for a 100% rally in just under 3 days and a casual 1,000% since mid October. That’s good. Know what’s better? When you’re 98% in that asset. I’m not playing piker position sizing for risk management. Nope, I’m “irresponsibly allocated.”
I’m juggling live tigers on a tightrope over a shark tank.
And here’s what’s wrong with that. Crypto will ruin you. A triple digit gain over a 30 day timeframe isn’t worth getting out of bed! Make it 24 hours or less and I’ll muster a moderate amount of interest. This isn’t to brag. It’s a warning. Trading Crypto will hollow out your soul. You’ll be devoid of feeling. Weekly swings of 50% in your entire portfolio have a tendency to destroy your adrenal glands. Your body stops producing cortisol. Some coin you are 90% in on drops a -$1,000 HOURLY candle and you don’t even pause eating your sandwich. So, be careful what you wish for. Trading crypto has immense upside but no one tells you about the dark side. You will never be the same.
It’s late here now and despite the winship I see devils all around. When things are this good there is only one direction they can go. It takes discipline and focus to put that natural self preservation instinct aside and pursue the most obscene gains possible.
Risk management. That’s cute, now pass the heroin.
I called MGTI hitting $10 when it was around $3, possibly lower.
All my brokerage accounts are fully loaded in MGTI. I got shook out of one account but I corrected that error.
Yes MGTI is up 300% in a short time. Not worried. I am upping my target to $20 in early 2018. Don’t bitch if you buy today and experience a correction. You gotta call your own entries. I can only throw out names. It will be interesting to see what hits $20 first: EOS (the coin) or MGTI
Why MGTI? John McAfee is insane and I like that. Beside that they are building a North American based Bitcoin mining operation. No matter what coin wins they WILL make money. This is like buying a shovel company during a gold rush. This is a better thesis than the scam companies jumping on the Crypto train. MGTI is a legit crypto company.
Is that an oxymoron? “Legit crypto company”.
I recommend starting bags on all the anonymous coins. Governments are going to tax the shit out of crypto so anonymity is going to be BIG in 2018. AEON, XVG, XMR.
Second tier: ZEC (but really fuck that coin), KMD.
There are a few others but I won’t mention them due to possibly be scammy.
Here’s your mission if you choose to accept it. Start small bags in all these coins and then just sit on them. Sometime in 2018 they should explode. That may seem like obvious investing advice but in Crypto that has proven to be a stupidly rewarding strategy.
Your target is 10x or more. Don’t settle for less.
Crypto is dead. Everything you knew, gone. The major players of yesterday, irrelevant. The rules of the game, destroyed. Up is down. Down is up.
Here is a final look at the previous lords of Crypto: the Neckbeards. They were gentle guardians of the fertile Crypto plains during the Paleolithic period. They roamed the crypto exchanges as doe eyed benign beings of innocence. Rarely leaving their basement, they devolved into human cavefish. Left to their limited options for social interaction they engaged in the the great Troll Wars of 2017 on Twitter and Reddit. The neckbeards ceased to adapt. They are now functionally extinct.
The new Lords of Crypto are … the long tail of society. Your Grandmother and her Florida retirement community armed with Ameritrade accounts, the Uber driver, the barista, and the millenial shitheel next door are the new lords of crypto. Surprised? Did you think I was going to say Wall Street?
The crypto genie is out of the bottle. Wall St is attempting to get it’s hooks in via CBOE, CME, GBTC and other traditional finance instruments but society finally has a way to overturn the status quo. As the meme goes, “THIS IS GENTLEMEN.”
Allow me to preemptively say fuck you to the inevitable trolling I’ll get in the comments. I had GBTC in the iBC Stock of the Year contest. How did your shitty call go? You wanna fuck with me now. Bring it. I’ll fuck you up in 2018 too.
But we cool, if you’re cool. I’d rather help you make a shit ton of money than have to hear your critiques of my crypto game. All I have to say is….”Scoreboard”. If that irks you, hate the game don’t hate the playa. You can still get your 20x on in 2018. I invite you to come along on the journey.
Where was I? Ah yes, making shitty analogies: if dotcoms were a coal fired train then the crypto universe is a custom built 220mph bullet train. What I’m saying is…. Everything is accelerated. Days are minutes. Weeks are days. Gains are obscene. Losses will be catastrophic. Rising from the ashes will be a new world ordered on Crypto.
Don’t get complacent. We’ll run farther and longer than you think possible. We’ll crash so hard your unborn kids will feel it. Then we’ll take over the world.
Everyone fears Wall St will take over but it won’t. Crypto is worldwide. It can’t be sliced into tranches of shitty debt and CDO’d to death. Wall St can short it, but they will get run over by Grandma’s knitting club talking about blockchain and HODL in the long run. The long tail wins. A million Grandmas with Ameritrade accounts are greater than Lloyd Blankfein.
Play the long game. Don’t chase price. Read Fly’s book. Troll me at your own risk.
On the markets, BCH is up 20% today and forming a nice bull flag. I posted charts on my Twitter.
I’ll post something with meaningful content later. Maybe.
Tethers are a Cryptocurrency that are designed to be pegged to the USD. They are created out of thin air (sound familiar to USD) and mostly used on the Bitfinex exchange. Issuing a currency pegged to the USD from nothing is a very dangerous game. From the Tether website:
Tether converts cash into digital currency, to anchor or tether the value to the price of national currencies like the US dollar, the Euro, and the Yen.
On certain exchanges you can’t sell for USD. You can only sell for Tehters which are ticker USDT. Since Tethers are supposedly pegged to USD the assumption is Tethers are as good and safe as dollars. Surprise, they very likely are not!
There is a dedicated twitter account that has been warning about the influence of Tethers on Bitcoin price for months. Bitfinex has started legal proceedings against this individual. I’m not clear what they are charging him with but he’s a thorn in their side. This person has been closely tracking the correlation to when new Tethers are issued to moves in Bitcoin price.
A pseudo-anonymous individual going by the nickname of Bitfinexed noticed that a symbol used to indicate that someone has been silenced by simply no longer showing the symbol (warrant canary) was today no longer showing for Ellis.
This symbol is often used to say, while not saying, that something has happened, gaining prominence after it came to light NSA uses gag orders.
While this proves nothing it’s an interesting development in a story that’s been ongoing. This individual has not tweeted since his the canary disappeared from his Twitter profile.
Is there merit in the structural problems of Tethers? Keep in mind that Bitfinex was hacked earlier this year. Were Tethers used to keep them afloat and have they further abused them? No one knows yet.
This is a potentially explosive story if it’s true. Also remember that CBOE opens trading on Bitcoin this week AND Bitcoin has another difficulty adjustment in <3 days. The out of control fees will be going higher.
I remain irresponsibly allocated in Bitcoin Cash (see below for main reason). I have a small position in EOS and will rebuild a position in XMR when an opportunity arises. I am braced for mass fuckery and can survive a zombie apocalypse style dip in Crypto. Can you?