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Here’s Some Crypto TA

First, a palate cleanser:

Bear case on BTC:

Bullish scenario:

Consensus 2018 is next week in NYC. This has usually been bullish for Crypto. Sample of the crowd you will find at Consensus.

Coingeek, which is owned by Gaming Billionaire and BCH shill Calvin Ayre, is hosting a conference May 18th in Hong Kong. Sample of the crowd you will find at this BCH conference:

Long BCH.

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Booked Some EOS Profit

I added to my EOS position March 27 at ~$6.15. Booked a 185% gain in just over a month. I am letting the principal ride as this is pure profit harvesting.

Did I sell the recent top? Nope. Called it, didn’t trade it. Story of my life. This chart was screaming sell. I mark the 4.618 fib as overbought on all my charts. Problem was EOS blew past that to $23 and I switched gears to charting EOS at $50 because I am greedy animal trained in the crypto circus to always push my luck.

EOS may hit $50, but not in one sweep. The once in a lifetime run of ETH from $6 to $1,000 in 2017 is not guaranteed to repeat. Given I’m in EOS under $5 for my core holding I have plenty of room to play this lotto ticket.

Overall the crypto market is dancing on the edge of a cliff. So many charts have bullish setups but if this rally fails it’s a quick trip down an elevator to hell. Couple of charts I’m watching.

BTC falling out of this pitchfork could move entire market down. Breaking the double top may put BTC in bull mode and could decimate most alts near term.

BCH has an Adam and Eve PLUS a Cup and Handle PLUS heavy resistance at the triple top. Flip a coin. One thing, if BCH breaks $1600 I expect it will explode upwards.

Long term Crypto is still a once in a lifetime investment opportunity. And it’s volatile.

Near term, whichever way the market moves next will set the tone for Summer.


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Immutable, Monetized Social Media on Bitcoin Cash

There is a new short message format social media platform that runs on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain and it is called Blockpress.  https://www.blockpress.com/

Blockpress is similar to Twitter. However, Blockpress has done several things that are very unique. First, every action on Blockpress is a microtransaction on BCH. Change your name, picture, post or reply requires a very small amount of Bitcoin Cash (less than one cent) to complete. There is also an integrated tipping system where you can send other users Bitcoin Cash.

Many firsts here: Blockpress has successfully monetized a social media platform out of the gate. Also, since the platform writes everything to the Bitcoin Cash blockchain all posts are uncensorable (we’ll have to see how that works) and immutable. Your posts are in the blockchain forever. Also, the microtransactions may counter some forms of SPAM, although the costs are so low maybe not.

This is a much more user friendly platform than Memo.Cash but credit is due to Memo.Cash for releasing their version first. The release of two viable social media platforms in a short period of time by different teams shows the kind of development that is happening in Crypto and specifically on Bitcoin Cash. Blockpress is a leap forward in usability and so far the developers are already taking requests and promising quick turnarounds on user requests.

As every post is written to the Bitcoin Cash blockchain there is currently a meager limit of 74 characters per post. When BCH upgrades on May 15 that will change to 220 characters. Images and other advanced features are not available yet but for a new release this is a very usable product and exciting use of BCH as a platform.

One thing you can do is grab your Blockpress ID and then input it into a monitored address on https://txhighway.com/. Every time you post on Blockpress you’ll hear your transaction hit the blockchain via the TX Highway website. This is real time demonstration of a distributed ledger in action.

Looking forward to what’s next for Bitcoin Cash.

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The Best Offense is a Good Defense

Crypto is near an interim double top. So many setups showing big moves ahead but there’s been a failure to punch through proving that resistance is resistance until broken.

BTCUSD Ichimoku cloud chart below. For now, the market overall is closely correlated to BTCUSD moves. Will the price resolve upwards or downwards? There is a mix of bullish and bearish indicators for the 800lb gorilla in Crypto.

BTCUSD pitchfork:

Holding the bottom of this pitchfork but flirting with a breakdown. $8,900 looks very important here.

So the market is between a rock and a hard place. Will there be a shakeup in the top 5 coins? Will a coin decouple from BTC? Will BTC break down or break up and take the whole market with it?

BCHBTC ratio is on the move upwards and approaching a double top / key resistance level. However the ratio has a recent bearish TK cross (similar to BTCUSD). If there’s is a break of that recent high and bullish recross of the TK then that is very bullish for BCHBTC. Add in that BCH has an upgrade in two weeks that will enable new functionality. Will it be a sell the news event or a confirmation of BCH maturing?

My overall take is that it’s best to watch the charts closely near term. Any significant breakdown and it’s time to sell and wait for the next bull signal. Crypto is volatile and you may get whipsawed in both directions. That’s the risk you take. This is an important move ahead for the market and I think will set the tone for Summer. I’m keeping a close eye on how these charts play out. The crypto market is about to choose a direction and right now the best offense is a good defense.

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Investing vs Speculating

One of the important distinctions that is missing in today’s markets is that Speculation is not the same as Investing. Crypto is speculating (today). Don’t be fooled by the holding mantra as a smokescreen for crypto investing.

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” -Benjamin Graham

Definition of Speculation: the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

Speculation is relative. It may be a theory without firm evidence to the majority but if you dig in eventually you see that Crypto is inevitable. At that a-ha moment it’s no longer speculation for you. Your thesis hits bedrock and you now stand firm in your conviction. The Internet did not have firm evidence for it being ubiquitous when it started out, it was speculative, but now it’s obvious to everyone. When did you finally figure that out? What gains did you miss out on being skeptical?

Reality today is there are very few practical reasons to buy crypto. Surprise! No one uses that shit! Crypto is 100% speculation for 98% of the population. Speculation gave birth to the dot com boom when people still had dial up modems. Wall St speculated in the mortgage market and caused a housing bubble. Speculation is time bound. It’s speculation until it becomes obvious, then the returns skyrocket. The early speculators are the future titans of industry…..IF they survive. I don’t want to step over survivor bias but rather than address it head on I’ll just share a Jesse Livermore quote:

Basically, idiot speculators don’t survive.

You have a decision point in front of you. Crypto is a new field. Will it survive and thrive? Is it the future? If it’s the future what are the likely returns? What does a Bitcoin need to be worth in this scenario? Imagine if you did that kind of due diligence when Google was $80 at it’s IPO.

There is no promise of safety or satisfactory return in Crypto. In fact, while speculating in Crypto you are likely to catch a live grenade and lose a limb every six months. In exchange for forgoing safety for that level of risk there is a chance of outrageous returns. But you won’t get those returns applying investing rules in a speculative world. Investing rules will have you exit in a drawdown for the “safety” of your stockholm syndrome annual index of choice + 3% returns, like a pleb.

The only way Investing works to change your life is if you live to 300 years old like Warren Buffett grinding out the earnings potential of GE every quarter to gain a few percentage points in your portfolio. No thanks!

So if you are an investor leave that investing knowledge at the door. It’s served you well. Channel your inner speculator. Research until you are comfortable or just swing out in Crypto with your riskiest portion of your portfolio. Accept you may lose a limb or two and pony up to the Crypto table. Today’s speculators are tomorrow’s billionaires, at least the ones that survive.

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Snowflakes Sue Bitcoin.com

Some BTC Snowflakes have created a website to promote a frivolous lawsuit claiming that Bitcoin.com is intentionally misleading visitors to buy BCH instead of BTC.

The entire affair is comical and will backfire. Here’s the background: Roger Ver AKA “Bitcoin Jesus” owns Bitcoin.com. Roger became a BCH proponent early on. He added BCH to Bitcoin.com and over time BCH has taken a more prominent role on the site. The lawsuit claims newbies to Bitcoin may go to Bitcoin.com and buy Bitcoin Cash instead of Bitcoin. Yes, that’s the basis of the lawsuit. Someone *might* buy BCH instead of BTC.

This gets into the Bitcoin civil war that has been raging for years. Let’s entertain a scenario where this gets to a court (will never happen).

The judge would have to determine “What is Bitcoin?”. Well, according to the National Institute of Standards and Technology BCH is Bitcoin:

Put more bluntly:

Which leads us to:

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Plebs: I’d Rather Hold Stocks Than Crypto

I will start with the good news: it’s still early in the Crypto game. Very early. You have not missed the boat. You can buy Crypto today and you’ll be way ahead of the exponential S curve we are entering. Everything up till now has been a test. The launchpad is ready and we are now loading rockets to the moon.

The bad news: you don’t own a time machine so you can’t got back in time and buy Bitcoin at $700 as I blogged about or flip that Bitcoin to Bitcoin Cash at 10:1 from August 2017 to November 2017 before BCH exploded above $1,000. C’est la vie, bitches.

It’s time to take a page out of the good book of Kanye. Think for yourself. Here’s some places to start.

Stop trying to change your life trading stocks. If it was going to happen it would have happened by now. You can continue to play the “seeking alpha” game grinding yourself into insanity looking to beat an index fund by 3% and risking getting 2 years of returns wiped out in a single swing of your FANG portfolio, along with every other FANG chump, due to Zuckerberg admitting he has sex with chickens or you can step into something new and reap the benefits of being an early adopter of the biggest thing since the Internet. It’s really your call how you live your life.

Make no mistake. Stocks may have been good to you but they can’t hold a candle to what’s coming in Crypto.

So I’m inviting you to make the leap. There is risk. I won’t paint a utopian scene in Crypto because it doesn’t exist. People get REKT. But you can greatly increase your chance of riding out the volatility and establishing a base on the freaking ground floor before the entire cryptoverse launches with extreme levels of vigor and massive green dildos.

It’s amazingly simple to get started. Use some common sense:

  • Don’t chase shitcoins. Too good to be true is a law of the universe. If you play that game play to win. In and out with profit. Don’t let a trade become an investment. The flameouts in Crypto are too numerous to mention.
  • This is a game of survival of the fittest. If you are not clear on why your coin will survive the law of the jungle then you shouldn’t be holding it.
  • Pick your winners then hold them. The crypto tree gets shook hard. Really hard. If you can buy that panic, great, but you probably won’t. Just don’t bail your core positions because of FUD. Have some conviction in your trades.
  • Consolidation is coming. Buy the cream of the crop. The insanely profitable alt coins seasons are fool’s gold. There is a lot of money to be made, but it’s the outlier scenario. Unless scalping momentum is your trading style, don’t fall for it. You’ll do better sitting tight on good coins.
  • If you are an alt coiner, buy the absolute bottom of everything. Spread your bags far and wide. Then wait. It may take six months and some of your bags may go to zero, but history has rewarded this strategy very well. I don’t personally care for it, but it’s an option.
  • Trust no one. Consider the crowd to always be wrong. Stay open minded.
  • Have a plan. If you stick it out till massive profits accumulate I promise you’ll be visited by GREED. Have a sell plan and stick to it. You will be tempted to ignore it. ASK ME HOW I KNOW.

Those are random bullet points off the cuff. But you get the idea. The key point is to get started. To ignore the FUD and burrow in knowing and accepting there will HUGE swings in volatility. You are not buying an index or a blue chip. You are buying instruments designed to alter the future world of finance and their volatility are going to be extreme, as will the rewards of getting in now ahead of the majority.

Don’t ask me about your random shitcoin. I don’t care. I’ve been very clear about where I have put my investments and will update if anything changes. No, I don’t recommend BTC.

Near term, I think EOS and BCH are the most promising coins. I expect them to be the new ETH and BTC and to possibly destroy all Alts in cannibalistic fashion.

Also, don’t do what I do, which is to be irresponsibly allocated into Crypto. I have years of experience juggling this dynamite. Just 10% of your portfolio in Crypto can make a huge difference. Increase as you see fit.

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Sold All Of My Monero

I have made a portfolio change. Rather than BCH, EOS and XMR I have reallocated.

I have sold all of my XMR and I have added to BCH.

Monero has a lot going for it: regularly scheduled hardforks, anonymous by default, a clear and concise roadmap with a process for what items are prioritized.

Monero may also have one of the largest botnets mining XMR on people’s computers without their consent, but that’s more of a fun fact than a feature.

Confidential transactions and anonymity are important in Crypto and XMR has been a leader. However, I don’t feel it’s in a place to hold that position much longer.

The unique value that XMR has in it’s anonymous by default architecture doesn’t make up for the areas where it has lagged behind: hardware wallet support, mobile clients, usability (altho it’s more usable than ZEC) and scalability.

The Monero dev team is also lead by Riccardo Spagni AKA fluffypony on Twitter. Fluffy relishes playing the crypto troll. He wears hats that say EXIT SCAM and is an anti-promoter of Monero. The anti-promoter anti-hero role had a certain appeal in the ICO crazy heights of crypto mania of 2017. Here was a guy telling us not to buy the coin he’s developing. Maybe he “can” be trusted.

I don’t know if he can be trusted or not, but I do know that I’m not so thrilled about having an investment where the most public figure is telling people to not buy the coin I am holding….and is still saying that as the rest of the market matures, explores new partnerships and stakes claims on dominating whatever niche they’ve claimed as their own. It’s a…ummm…. unique strategy.

I’m not good at goodbyes so I’ll just leave this here…


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Key Level for Bitcoin Cash

$1,560 is a key level for Bitcoin Cash. This level has served as important support and resistance. Once broken we could see a violent upswing.

In the words of the immortal Jesse Livermore:

Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.

This technical level for price is a natural place to pause. There is the May 15 hardfork three weeks away and many other projects in motion that are bringing the value prop of BCH into sharper focus: Money Button, MemoBCH SDK and others. Yes, these look like immature products. They are. It’s still *early* in Crypto. Have some foresight and fortitude for once in your life and stop chasing shiny objects.

All it takes to be Warren Buffet in Crypto is to hold for more than 180 days.

Zooming out on Crypto understand this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Yes, you may groan at that kind of hyperbolic language but it fits here. Don’t let your cynicism ruin the opportunity. You plebs bought the TSLA dream and think you are geniuses for worshipping at Church of Elon but meanwhile you are missing out on the actual future of money because “you got it all figured out”. Don’t do that. Be humble. Consider the possibilities.

Tim Draper says Bitcoin will be bigger than TSLA and others combined:

Crypto is in an S curve adoption curve over a 10+ year timeframe. We are entering the vertical ascent. Yes, there will booms and busts along the climb. Don’t count it dead and don’t (necessarily) wait for the best entry point.

And regarding what coins to buy I have been clear in my opinions and reasons. One thing that has shifted for me is that it may no longer be the best strategy to buy an index of the top 20 coins and wait. This strategy was a monster the past 2-3 years but I think the market is smarter. The cream will rise to the top. Comparing to dot com days, don’t buy Xcite when you can be buying Google.

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Best time to buy Crypto

Crypto is back and so am I. If you didn’t buy the dip you still can.

Bitcoin Cash has run 110%+ recently and is gearing up for a May 15th hardfork to enable new functionality in the form of opcodes. In layman’s terms, opcodes enable BCH to do anything any alt coin can do now. It’s Boolean logic. IF….THEN type logic. This means your favorite alt coin just got obsoleted.

“Bitcoin is Turing complete. This means Bitcoin can perform any function related to a payment you can do with a high level programming language.” -Satoshi’s Vision Conference, Tokyo 2018

PROGRAMMABLE MONEY. Plus more. And not that ETH crypto kitties BS. We’re talking about contracts built on a network that can scale.

Also, there is a lot talk about privacy on the BCH chain. Oblivious transfers and threshold signatures. This tech can make BCH private, anonymous and easier to protect. Transfer anonymously, recreate private keys, change every address with every block. This makes BCH anonymous and safe. Public blockchain transactions are optional.

So, can BCH eat every alt coin for lunch? Is privacy and anonymity months away? What would that do for it’s utility and value? Watch this talk from 2017. Google everything you don’t understand. This is THE roadmap laid out for the world to see.  (be warned, Craig Wright’s delivery is direct. Listen to the message and set aside your thoughts on the delivery):

What’s the risk? Well, the hard fork could fail. Craig Wright could be full of shit. The hype may be just hype. Shooting straight, there will probably be a mix of all of the above. And it won’t matter.

While BCH has done all of the above BTC has bet the farm on Lightning Network to scale Bitcoin. Being as objective as possible all I can say is LOL. Lightning Network has so many risks it’s more of a new set of difficult problems rather than a scaling solution. The Bitcoin Civil War is not worth rehashing here but all I’ll say is the coin that is poised to capitalize on BTC’s failure to scale is BCH.

I think we’re on the verge of grand larceny for BCH holders. We are going to rob alt coin holders then kick them down an open manhole. I find no other alternative acceptable than to be 100% at risk. All chips on the table, poised for greatness or heartache.

With the exception of a 10% holding of EOS I am all in on BCH. I sold my Monero in the past 48 hours (I have a bull market target on XMR of $600 yet it did not live up to my personal risk/reward ratio).

Also, Kanye is back on Twitter. Follow him immediately.


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