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War on Cash

On November 8th Indian Prime Minister Modi did something unusual:

India’s government banned the use of Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 ($15) banknotes. This pretty much made most currency-in-use illegal. Banks and ATMs are closed today. The government believes that doing this will help eradicate corruption and push counterfeit money out of circulation.

The hidden intention is to also increase tax revenue which is way below average for a developed country because most transactions in India are in cash. In fact, buying a house in India often involves a suitcase of cash exchanging hands. Driving the majority of this suitcase cash through a bank forces criminals and savers alike to declare their savings with the government, which is taxed heavily above a comically low threshold. As a result of that tax you can sell your old bills in the streets at a 20-30% discount to avoid the nice government folks.

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Gold, which is a traditional store of value and has a high cultural value in India, is selling at almost a 100% markup. (warning: zerohedge quote incoming)

97% of the Indian economy is cash-based. With 88% of all outstanding currency no longer usable, the economy is coming to a standstill. The daily-wage laborer, who leads a hand-to-mouth existence in a country with GDP per capita of a mere $1,600, no longer has work, as his employer has no cash to pay his wages.

People are now converting whatever they can into gold, silver, and mostly for the first time into the US dollar and other foreign currencies as well, all of which are trading at huge premiums. Money is also moving out of the country. Gold has shot up to as much as $2,800 per ounce, if you can find it.

Consider India a ground war on cash. Before you discount this as a problem only for India other Countries are already winning a cyber war on Cash. There’s Sweden, which unlike India, is 97% cashless thanks to Swish.

“I don’t use cash any more, for anything,” said Louise Henriksson, 26, a teaching assistant. “You just don’t need it. Shops don’t want it; lots of banks don’t even have it. Even for a candy bar or a paper, you use a card or phone.”

Swedish buses have not taken cash for years, it is impossible to buy a ticket on the Stockholm metro with cash, retailers are legally entitled to refuse coins and notes, and street vendors – and even churches – increasingly prefer card or phone payments.

According to central bank the Riksbank, cash transactions made up barely 2% of the value of all payments made in Sweden last year.

The same week Modi outlawed India currency notes Trump won the US election for POTUS. This happens to coincide with Blockchain announcing a record surge in new Bitcoin wallets.

“We’re setting a new record pretty much every day since the election in terms of activity on the platform.

“People are basically hedging against economic instability. It’s a worrying time to be holding a lot of British pounds or if you’re American — people flee to safe haven assets. Bitcoin is one of those.”

If we give 100% control over our stored labor (cash) to the banks government they will do what’s best for them with your cash and you will have zero recourse. Personally, if I had your cash I could burn mine!

With a Bitcoin wallet you become your own bank which allows frictionless, low cost transactions.

With 1 billion people in India now subject to new levels of taxation will they turn to Bitcoin? That remains to be seen. The richest man in India is setting up free 4G for all of India, that certainly helps!

The great fiat experiment is in various stages across the world. With a record number of new Bitcoin wallets being established and a country of 1 Billion facing controls on their cash will we see a surge in demand for Bitcoin? I think so.

Bitcoin was up from $696 to $740 in past 48 hours when this was posted.

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Bitcoin to Supermoon

Since I posted about Bitcoin in August at $575 it has moved to $750 and is currently resting at ~$710.

Bitcoin is in a $20 trading range the past 48 hours. Ain’t nobody got time for that.

Bitcoin is going to move soon and it could be big. Bitcoin doesn’t give a shit about China Yuan devaluation, the price of Oil, lying politicians with illegal email Servers or even pussy grabbing Orange Swans.

Bitcoin thinks little of these things.

To prove my point I provide the infallible balloon animal chart.

download

It’s that simple. See you at $1,000.

For the more traditional TA purist, Bitcoin has formed a huge cup and handle long term. I expect a move further north soon.

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Meanwhile in Cryptocurrency…

Bitcoin has breached $690. Needham is out with a research paper with lots of pretty charts setting a target of $848. Here’s a one month chart of Bitcoin vs Gold.

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But the real news of the day is the launch of a new Cryptocurrency called Zcash. Zcash has nailed the hype machine. They are releasing the first 100 coins today. Zcash insiders are positioned to cash in large as the unwashed masses fight over those 100 coins. The first few coins started trading moments ago.

Here is a live feed of the developers during launch (screenshot below). Notice it looks like it’s a set from Silicon Valley. You cannot make this shit up.

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There are now over 700 Cryptocurrencies in the world, or just over double the number of officially recognized fiat currencies. This is fucking stupid and unsustainable. They will consolidate.

Bitcoin is still the King. All hail the King.

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Bitcoin vs The World

Bitcoin is up 3% on a day the Sterling and other currencies scramble to avoid the gravitational pull of the blackhole of their central bank policies and deals made with the devil (extra EU). The Dollar is the least worst place to be in fiat so it rises in comparison. How much longer will that last?

Tomorrow the SEC either approves or denies the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF. As pointed out in this article a Bitcoin ETF could be a major boost to Bitcoin price.

Having meandered between $300 and $400 for the previous 15 years, gold prices started to take off in 2004. Within two years of the launch of GLD, gold had hit $600. Within four years, it was over $900.

…….

So a Bitcoin ETF should mimic the price-doubling impact of GLD and SLV.

In fact, the first Bitcoin ETF might pack even more of a punch than its precious metals counterparts.

That’s because a lot of potential Bitcoin investors have been sitting on the sidelines.

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Introduction to Bitcoin

For those of you interested in a primer on Bitcoin here are two great resources. I’ll answer any questions the best I can.

First, here is a speech (video and text transcription) by Andreas Antonopolous on Bitcoin. He wrote Mastering Bitcoin and The Internet of Money.

Andreas hits on several comparisons for Bitcoin including: the earliest writings were spreadsheets (a primitive blockchain), the next generation won’t understand 3-5 days to clear a banking transaction, the network effect, Bitcoin security (be your own bank) and also that money gets created in every social circle. Even Kindergartners. And yes, some of them eventually figure out how to take the other kid’s money.

Second is a link on Zerohedge from Raoul Pal. There are some incredible claims made in that article including Bitcoin at $1,000,000 per coin. It’s still a good read.

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Bill Gross on Bitcoin, Blockchain

Bloomberg reports Bill Gross has the following to say about Bitcoin:

New financial technologies such as bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors as a protection against central bank low- and negative-interest-rate policies that threaten capitalism, according to billionaire bond manager Bill Gross.

“Bitcoin and privately agreed upon blockchain technologies amongst a small set of global banks are just a few examples of attempts to stabilize the value of their current assets in future purchasing power terms,” he wrote. “Gold would be another example — historic relic that it is. In any case, the current system is beginning to be challenged.”

Billionaire bond managers are usually pretty smart guys. Most of them stick to what makes them money, traditional financial services, until they see something as inevitable in which case they get ahead of the adoption curve for profit and protection.

Let’s say there is a currency collapse. What’s going to be tradeable? Gold coins or digital tokens that are easily divisible  to .00000001 (one hundred of a millionth) and immune to counterfeit like Bitcoin? Bill is saying he sees the current system being challenged and Bitcoin is a way to hedge, if not outright profit. Bitcoin is an “example of attempts to stabilize the value of their current assets in future purchasing power terms”. In other words, your money is going to shit, says a fucking billionaire.

By the way, Gold got hammered today. Bitcoin was unchanged.

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Bitcoin ETF deadline and Auctions

The SEC deadline to approve the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is October 12. This has been in process for almost three years.

Why a Bitcoin ETF? This would open Bitcoin to Institutional investors and Joe Stocktrader. Tell your Uncle about Bitcoin at Thanksgiving and he could buy it Monday in his 401k.

“If a Bitcoin ETF brings additional capital to bitcoin, it would likely push the price higher and drive an increase in hashing power and funding for development – both of which would serve to further improve network security which, in turn, further enables all the use cases that make bitcoin great.”

Why not $GBTC? $GBTC is a scam. Every share represents .9 of a bitcoin which at $90/share means it’s almost 50% overpriced.

While waiting on the SEC the Winklevoss twins have been busy launching their daily auction of Bitcoins via Gemini in mid September.

Gemini tweets updates on the auction that occurs at 4PM daily.

 

Gemini has been averaging ~$1M/day in their auctions. Not too bad for a couple of Facebook rejects.

Note on ETF: It is much better to own your Bitcoin than to own an ETF based on Bitcoin, even if the ETF accurately represents Bitcoin’s price. Think of it like owning Gold vs a Gold ETF. If the ETF custodian has problems what do you really have? Nothing. However, if owning Bitcoin in your 401k is only accessible via an ETF then I would consider it.

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BHP Billiton to use Blockchain

$BHP to use Ethereum and a custom Blockchain to track mining information.

BHP Billiton revealed at the second annual Global Blockchain Summit that it will use blockchain to record movements of wellbore rock and fluid samples and better secure the real-time data that is generated during delivery. According to BHP geophysicist R Tyler Smith, the new system will enable benefits for its internal efficiency while allowing it to work more effectively with partners.

“With blockchain, we would share data between the vendor and ourselves, and have a constant understanding of where it is,” Smith told CoinDesk, adding:

“Everything right now is being tracked through spreadsheets.”

BHP’s use case does not involve moving Ethereum for transferring monetary value. BHP’s use case is based on routing real time information using a combination public Blockchain and private Blockchain.

Because right now they are using fucking spreadsheets.

Blockchain is a revolutionary technology. An immutable, real time, public (or private) ledger opens new possibilities. Add in features like smart contracts, optional anonymity for transactions and zero Central Bank control and the fintech world has major changes ahead.

I, for one, welcome our new blockchain overlords.

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Bitcoin, the Reserve (Crypto) Currency

BitMEX is out with an article on Bitcoin as a Reserve Currency for Cryptocurrency traders.

The holy grail for many users is a cryptocurrency that has a growing market cap, and falling price volatility. A large market cap helps improve liquidity and reduce transactions costs. Falling volatility means that Bitcoin can retain its value for longer periods of time. That helps facilitate its adoption in online commerce and as an asset used as a savings vehicle.

Bitcoin’s march towards reserve status is not welcomed by all. Many speculators, who account for a significant portion of trading volumes, prefer very volatile cryptocurrencies. Short-term trades with high leverage can yield stupendous returns. As Bitcoin’s volatility falls, it becomes boring and speculators search for the next hot altcoin.

The Cryptocurrency market is becoming a three horse race with: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero. Traders trade in and out of Ethereum and Monero using Bitcoin. Bitcoin has become the reserve currency in this market.

Bitcoin illustrates that for any coin to be successful, speculators must be attracted first by high volatility. The coin may be illiquid, but that is exactly what produces the wild price swings that keeps traders captivated. Volatility is the best form of advertising. A coin that is not volatile has either died, or is on the path towards reserve status like Bitcoin.

Calling Bitcoin stable is a bit of a stretch, but in comparison to other Cryptocurrency markets Bitcoin is the sanest choice in an insane world. As volatility decreases Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a store of value increases. This could be a feedback loop to drive price up over time.

All Eyez on Bitcoin:

 

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Your typical Bitcoiner

This enterprising YouTuber is technically selling his house for Litecoin (rather than Bitcoin), but there are so many great things about this clip I had to share it.

Whether they choose Bitcoin or a shitcoin, there are people putting their money down on Cryptocurrency. For every pick up driving, no seatbelt wearing and possibly open container law breaking Duck Dynasty reject there are guys like Vinny Lingham and Andreas Antonopoulos who are all in regarding cryptocurrencies.

What I respect about this clip is “he’s willing to lose all of it”. He has big brass balls in those Kirkland Signature jeans. Shine on you Crazy Diamond.

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