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Bitcoin is back

Bitcoin shrugged off the SEC’s decision to deny the Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin is now back to prices seen…earlier this month. The absolute horror.

Bitcoin has been declared dead more times than Freddy, Jason and the T800 combined. 125 times in fact.

Here is why the SEC really rejected Bitcoin. A few select quotes:

The SEC doesn’t protect retail investors from anything, least of all bitcoin. It protects big megabanks from prosecution and competition. How can we be sure? Because pump and dump scams are everywhere. A nothing company with zero employees can merge into a shell by technical SEC rules and then start blasting ads to first time investors. This is all perfectly fine. Banks don’t buy into these scams. Retail dumb money does. No protection there.

But Credit Suisse for example can go on and issue double leveraged short term VIX futures shares like the TVIX that are more volatile and explosive than a bucket of antimatter. A bitcoin ETF though would be “too dangerous” for consumers, but the TVIX, the bane of all aggressive novice shorters who dream of making it rich quick, that’s perfectly wonderful, because it’s issued by Credit Suisse.

A bitcoin ETF is way too dangerous, but triple leveraged bear and bull ETFs issued by investment management behemoths with literally trillions of dollars under management, are fine and ubiquitous. Any teenager old enough to open a brokerage account can click a button and buy any of them and the fund decay all goes to the Big Boys. They’re fine because they are backed by Big Money, the same guys who can so easily influence who gets nominated to financial regulatory agencies.

So, good riddance to the SEC.

The biggest threat to Bitcoin is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is software that has a consensus mechanism built in to handle upgrades. To keep it simple, consensus can be reached in a couple of ways and requires majority of miners, users or exchanges to agree on what software version to run. Today a version called Bitcoin Unlimited was attacked via a bug shutting down a majority of miners running the Bitcoin Unlimited version of software.

Why did this happen? Because the selfish fucks at Bitcoin Unlimited want Bitcoin to be Visa over fucking night. They are willing to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs and they shill daily for a hard fork of Bitcoin. They released untested code and got hammered for it. That this happened today is a great thing. Bitcoin Unlimited loses credibility and the case for SegWit, or at least a controlled and well tested fork, is reinforced. Suck it Bitcoin Unlimited.

Gramatik has a song out about Satoshi Nakomoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin. “We buying whips with cryptocurrency.”


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UPDATE: ETF denied. Bitcoin dead cat bounced off $1,000. I think we’ll have a final capitulation spike down and then resume upward trajectory for rest of 2017. 4 years in the making and the entire ETF drama will be forgotten by next week.


The SEC decision regarding the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is due March 11 (Saturday). Expect an announcement around 430PM EST today.

In anticipation, Bitcoin had a $170 5 min candle today. $170 in FIVE MINUTES. Even for Bitcoin that is ridiculous. $1200 > $1360 > $1190. Bitcoin is a rodeo bull, just try to hang on.


I expect either $2,000 or $1,000 Bitcoin within 7 days. I am leaning that the ETF is denied and we test $1,000. I’m a buyer post announcement either way. If denied, we’ll have a buying opportunity and the entire ETF will just be a blip on the chart by Q2 2017.

However, if the ETF is approved then we’re in uncharted territory. Buy the rocket and hold on.

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$COIN ETF decision approaches

March 11 marks the day the SEC will hand down it’s decision on the Winklevoss backed Bitcoin ETF $COIN.

Bitcoin has rallied on the rumor of approval and fresh capital hitting Bitcoin via an ETF. As a result, Bitcoin touched on all time highs. There are two numbers to crack for Bitcoin to be in uncharted territory: the Mt Gox Exchange high of $1265 and parity with gold.

If the ETF passes some are predicting Bitcoin will fast track $5,000+. Bitcoin’s “market cap” is ~18B, or just slightly larger than TWTR. A Bitcoin ETF would cause a strong rally. Do I recommend COIN? No, I recommend you hold your own Bitcoins over an ETF the same as I recommend holding your gold over GLD.

If the ETF fails Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. Bitcoin may see a 20% correction. Buy Bitcoin there.

I don’t believe the ETF will pass and I think that’s the right decision. Bitcoin is still evolving. Labeling Bitcoin as a commodity via ETF would be like labeling AOL in early 90’s as “the Internet”. The Internet evolved bigly from the early days of AOL. Bitcoin is in that kind of early phase.

My advice? Stop masturbating for 20 minutes and invest a few minutes to improve your mind and impact your piker bank account long term. Buy a hardware wallet. Buy some bitcoins. You’ll be an early adopter and find out how easy it is to use digital currency. You can use purse.io to name your own discount on Amazon by paying in Bitcoin. The key is to start now.

Oh, we also have this thing called a debt ceiling coming March 15th. That could really set off some fireworks with Bitcoin price as Trump and Congress twitterjerk themselves into a budget war.

(HOUSEKEEPING) I’ve been bashing GBTC for over a year. In a comment section somewhere I stated GBTC was an OK buy if you only had retirement accounts and wanted Bitcoin exposure. I am revoking that comment and reinstating that GBTC is complete garbage.


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Bitcoin longs Ramsay Bolton’ed

The news about the PBOC investigating exchanges is verified true and is being blown into a FUD tornado, or FUDNADO, if you will. In a world full of FUD it’s no surprise.

Filtering the noise…..the Exchanges are not Bitcoin any more than the S&P500 is Google. Nothing has changed about Bitcoin.

Exchange regulation is a sign of Bitcoin’s increasing influence and legitimacy.

I won’t be surprised if PBOC closes an Exchange. It’s long term irrelevant. Barring that this may be last time we see 700’s. Bitcoin has survived Mt Gox, Cryptsy and Bitfinex.

Either way we are definitely separating the longs from the wannabes here.

And anything is possible. Bitcoin is risky. Don’t fuck around with it if you can’t handle it AND if you don’t have at least a few coins you may be missing the opportunity of the century.

As you were, fuckheads.

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Tips hat to OA for his well timed Bitcoin sell. Excellent as usual.

Now, for the rest of the Internet declaring Bitcoin is dead please review these other 120 obituaries written about Bitcoin going back to 2010.

You see, Bitcoin is a Sewer Rat. Bitcoin has been declared dead and crawled out of the grave many times to continue to rise in value and credibility.

No entity or government controls Bitcoin. No Fed, no PBOC, no EU. Just pure market dynamics. Bitcoin is not dead, it’s just getting started. And like many disruptor in early stages, Bitcoin is volatile as fuck. Caveat Emptor. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of Bitcoin. To the early adopters go the greatest rewards.

And for the newcomers, here are some FACTS:

  • Bitcoin is the best performing currency 6 of last 7 years.
  • Bitcoin is at ~16B USD market cap. Slightly larger than Twitter. 10x that is peanuts in financial world.
  • There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. That’s .003 per human on the planet.
  • BTC is easily divisible to .00000001
  • A $1 trillion market cap in Bitcoin is $62,500 PER BITCOIN
  • Capital flight from China has been closely linked to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin could retrace to ~$720, which takes us all the way back to … late November. If that’s the case I’ll be buying by the boatload. See you at $10k.

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New Year, New Market Cap High in Bitcoin

On December 7th with Bitcoin at ~$770 I posted you had your last chance to buy before a run to $1,000.

Today Bitcoin hit $1,000. That’s ~25% return in less than 30 days.

What now? Well, here’s a possible scenario:


I don’t like the vertical upward trend. It’s too volatile, however the long term trend is the cup and handle. Target: $1,400 for a buy and hold. It’s going to be very choppy so if you act have a strong hand and you’ll be rewarded nicely.

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