Portfolio 04/03/13

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Things have been quite busy around the office as of late, so I have not had my usual time in the morning to sip on a piping hot mug of coffee and write my pre-market performance updates, so I apologize for the delayed post once again.

The stock market is hilarious sometimes.  Whenever we get a few days of selling, I am amazed by how quickly not only sentiment but also news flow turns decidedly negative.  I am amazed by how quickly things can turn from ‘peachy’ to “OMGWTFFML!?!”

Just last week we were all banking coin, planning trips to exotic locales in which we could exploit all of our stock exchange winnings.  This week, those plans have been scrapped and we are now eating condensed canned soup and drinking Meisterbrau in order to be “prudent”.

I think this is a trap.  I believe that there was not nearly enough euphoria at the top for this to be any sort of sustained decline.  Yes, my P/L in April would beg to differ with that sentiment, but I am trying to hold the line here.

What concerns me most is the extreme decoupling of “riskier” assets as seen in recent performance in IWM and MDY as compared to DIA (presented to me via my market timing algorithm…and can be witnessed by anyone with 2 operational eyes).

IWM has been destroyed since 4/1.  DIA is less than 1% from all time highs.

Basically my thoughts are: we have a ripping run higher on the riskier assets (smaller market cap), which will signal the intermediate top.  I think bears are going to get “graped” by getting sucked into this recent selloff, only to see the same happen to late-comer bulls who think that a strong push to new highs is a signal to get in.

Several other items worth noting: Japan’s continued easing and destruction of the Yen.  Additionally, the inability of short term bonds (SHY) to rally vs. SPY.  This has been my key indicator for risk on/risk off, and it this ‘score’ still resides in “unequivocal bull market territory”.

If you are long, I say hang in there, I think we will bounce soon.  If you are short, take profits.

As for me, I sold out of CNO yesterday…I had enough.  Additionally, I cast off half of my RWT position to lock in gains and raise more cash.

I hate selling after a steep selloff, it cements the fact that my timing is waaaay off.  I should have high cash levels and be looking to buy when we sell off like this and be locking in gains when we rip.  I’ll eventually find that balance.

For now, I’ll have to live with watching almost all of my March gains go up in smoke.

Onward.

2013-04-03perf 2013-04-03-EM

2 Responses to “Portfolio 04/03/13”

  1. Go phish..!

  2. GE is getting interesting, wants to fill a gap me thinks. I’m long.

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