iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

The Kate Upton Leaked Photos Have Nothing on This Look

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Let’s let Ms. Upton eat her food in peace–The poor girl has had enough of her privacy invaded this week.

As for the market, the small cap look from this morning of the running rising channel since August now sees price at the bottom rail.

On shorter-term timeframes, we have a head and shoulders top still in play.

I am standing pat for now, but on weakness have a few prospects in mind.

The coffee long and bond short are still working according to plan.

What are you trading this afternoon?

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IWM

 

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The Richest Man in Zamunda

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Commodities have been, by and large, stinking up the joint of late.

Coffee, fittingly, has had the best energy to its price movement of late. Considering coffee was the star of the show at the beginning of this year, I am still looking for another push higher in the final stretch of 2014.

We saw a shakeout in coffee yesterday and this morning. But an upside reversal this afternoon has me sticking with the long trade.

I would consider a final add to my position with a move over $40 on JO, the coffee ETN.

Commodity bulls may not be a rich bunch these days, but coffee looks like the richest man in Zamunda.

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JO

 

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Five Stocks Running on the Good Stuff Today

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Courtesy of The PPT algorithm, here are the most current top five readings from my “12631 RELATIVE STRENGTH” custom-made screen, identifying which stocks are exuding some of the best performances to the market at-large at any given moment.
I look for stocks whose Daily PPT Hybrid Score surges, while the Weekly Hybrid has been negative over the past week. This can often yield stocks which are emerging from consolidations.

Members can click here to view and save the screen.

Sorted for at least 500,000 shares of daily average volume to ensure liquidity.

Please click on image to enlarge.

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2014-09-04_1230

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Playing Mario’s Games

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On the back of Mario Draghi announcing QE in the Eurozone, the Euro continues to get wrecked.

EUO is the ultra-short ETF of the Euro, for reference. It is tough to chase it here on the short side. But into bounces I would be stalking a fresh short there.

Also note the Euro/Japanese Yen currency cross weekly chart, below, looking ripe for a major breakdown from the highlighted triangle. Keep this one on watch.

What are you trading this morning?

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EURJPY

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Swimming the Channel

swimhomepage

The small caps in the Russell 2000 Index are staging a nice bounce off support this morning, as seen on the long rising channel for the ETF, below. This type of resilience is the main reason why I have focused more on shorting individual names in lieu of making directional bets on the indices to the short side.

Until we see a breach lower, I am going to hold off on the likes of TZA plays.

As far as the long side, if yesterday’s reversal candles are negated with further upside today, a few names to have on watch are: CMG CPL FB M UA WWE.

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IWM

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Earnings and Macro Strategy

The following is just a small excerpt from my latest Weekly Strategy Session (please click on that hyperlink for details about trying it out). which I published for members and 12631 subscribers this past Sunday.

B. STRATEGY FOR PLAYING THE LATEST NEWS HEADLINES, EARNINGS SEASON, AND MACROECONOMIC DATA; SPECIFICALLY TUESDAY’S ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX, THURSDAY’S INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND JOBLESS CLAIMS, AND FRIDAY’S NONFARM PAYROLLS NUMBER. 

[Please click here to see the full earnings slate of which firms report and when. Please also click here to see the full economic calendar for the week ahead (you might need to click ahead to Monday, September 1st)]. 

***PLEASE ALSO NOTE THAT ALL U.S. MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED FOR THE FULL SESSION THIS MONDAY IN HONOR OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY***

Moving our way through the latter part of earnings season, keep in mind there are plenty of different styles that can be profitable in the market as a trader. My discipline is to usually not hold trades through earnings reports. If you do want to hold a position through the firm’s earnings report, I would suggest that you consider lightening up the position a bit before the announcement in order to mitigate the known unknowns/risks you are assuming.

Either way, I urge you to check and then double-check your current portfolio holdings to see when the firms you own are scheduled to announce earnings. As a swing trader, I am almost always looking to significantly reduce or outright close a position into earnings. There are simply too many external variables, particular to the firm in question, from an earnings report for me to have an edge. As an example, even if you do possess some type of insider or unique information about a given firm’s impending earnings report, there is still no way to know how the market will react. Stocks can just as easily sell-off on great earnings as they can on horrific ones, and vice-versa.

With that in mind, I want to point out one crucial difference between specific earnings reports relevant to the stocks of firms you own versus politics, a broad economic report, and monetary policy decisions. In trending markets, up or down, the macroeconomic data (not microeconomic, such as earnings reports) tend to be interpreted by the market in favor of the prevailing trend, even if the numbers wildly miss or easily crush expectations.

In sum, macro reports should not be treated as the sole reason to exit a stock, whereas a specific firm that you own reporting earnings most certainly can. Moreover, the reaction to the initial reaction in terms of the price action by the market after a given data point or earnings report is what matters most to swing traders.

Technical analysis has its clear limitations in that it can usually only analyze that which is currently known and legally knowable by the markets. To presume that charts can dictate everything into the future is pure folly. Trading, for all intents and purposes, is gambling, as we are wagering on outcomes yet to be determined. Instead of running away from that fact, a better approach is to embrace sound risk management principles and become astute speculators.

Please click here to continue reading

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