MARKET WRAP UP 06/09/10
After hitting a late morning high of 1077, the S&P 500 fell apart into the close to finish off 0.59%, at 1055. As I have noted in my previous posts, the raw emotions of many traders come to the forefront when we see price action like this. The punishing downtrend that we have seen for weeks on end causes many traders to hope that they can buy stocks at the exact bottom, and make a huge score. When we finally see a relief rally, it is usually fast and furious, as shorts are squeezed, and bulls pound their chests in victory. However, when the rally falls apart quickly, the tables turn yet again, and the bulls find themselves quickly underwater on their new long inventory, and the bears scramble to reinitiate shorts.
Of course, all of these emotions are not constructive. While it is tempting to think of trading as a test of one’s intestinal fortitude, it is important to remember that we are engaging in a complex mental exercise here. Any aggression that you show as a trader should be in a very well thought out and controlled manner. Leave the street fighting to others.
As the updated and annotated daily chart of the S&P 500 illustrates below, we continue to chop and flop around our key 1040-1050 zone. As I have noted before regarding key reference points, the longer that the market spends at these levels, the more likely it is that the support will fail. What you are looking for are buyers stepping up with conviction, and greedy shorts paying the price for pushing their bets too far. From the action that we saw today, that kind of bullish scenario has yet to materialize. In order for me to get involved again on the long side, I am going to need to see that happen.
Thus, keeping a heavy cash position and an open mind are still the best ideas that I have. Note that taking a pass on trading in this type of environment has the added bonus of viewing the action in an objective way. Having a healthy frame of mind and a healthy confidence level are essential in all forms of gambling. Make no mistake, trading IS gambling, as we are betting on outcomes that have yet to be determined. Instead of denying that fact, a better strategy would be to embrace sound gambling concepts. A market like this will punish you for overtrading, fighting the trend, and any lack of discipline whatsoever. Novice traders will likely learn those lessons the hard way. Many other traders, however, have enough experience to the point where they think they are untouchable as far as bearing the brunt of the market’s force. They think they can manage their way out of any corner, no matter what they did to put themselves there. In short, they allow their emotions, hubris, and machismo to overtake them, and they are essentially outthinking themselves.
You don’t make that same mistake.