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I made two trades.
All trades are timestamped inside The PPT.
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES: 40%
CASH: 60%
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“The dater out of Chiner is absolutely beaut-E-ful for the mawkets. Bro! Just look at this chart of $FCX“
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Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful but now I’m on my way.
But when I think its’s time to leave it all behind
I try to find a way but there’s nothing I can say to make it stop.
-Phish “Down With Disease”
As the old saying goes, there is nothing terrible about being wrong. Rather, the problem is in staying wrong. With that in mind, I stopped out of my heinous $COCO speculative trade for 7.5% loss. I suppose it will be absurdly hilarious if I bottom tick the stock here, but frankly I knew I was taking on a lot of risk by the nature of how this chart looks, and how the stock trades. From time to time I will make “casino” type of trades like that, and over the years it has worked fine for me so long as I respected my stop loss and kept them fairly infrequent.
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES: 34%
CASH: 66%
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNt1IdNEJ-c 450 300] Comments »
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MARKET WRAP UP 08/04/10
Stocks survived another morning gap down to finish near the highs of the day, as the S&P 500 closed up 0.61% to 1127. With the buyers picking up steam in the final hour of trading, one cannot help but conjure up the old Wall Street axiom that bull tapes finish strongly, while bearish tapes feature weak closes into the bell. Seeing that many traders are either skeptical or flat-out bearish on this market, the fact that the bulls refuse to relinquish the initiative needs to be respected. Despite the ongoing light summer volume, breadth was impressive today, given that the S&P hit eleven week highs, on a closing basis.
Perhaps what is most impressive about the price action during the last few days is how quickly each intraday gap down has been bought. After Monday’s 2% rally higher, I discussed the concept of overhead supply, which dictates that longs who were previously trapped at a given price level are now likely to sell once they are made whole, as opposed to buying more or holding. The closer we have come to 1131 on the S&P, which is precisely where we touched and reversed hard to 1010 on June 21st, the more chop we have understandably seen. However, as the updated and annotated daily chart of the S&P 500 illustrates below, there has been an underlying demand to meet this supply, helping the market to digest the recent gains in an orderly way.
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Turning to other key indices and sectors, it is becoming clear that the transportation stocks and the emerging markets are leading us higher. However, as their daily charts indicate below, the technology led Nasdaq Composite, as well as the small caps, are slightly underperforming here.
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With more and more stocks forming lateral bases and subsequently moving higher, the market has all the makings of a continued summer rally. I am looking for a move over–and hold above–that 1131 level on the S&P before I think we see a new wave of buyers emerge. However, I will wait for confirmation before jumping the gun with overly aggressive portfolio allocations. Beyond that, I am not interested in holding individual issues through their earnings reports, so I have been shuffling around my portfolio a bit as well.
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES: 42%
CASH: 58%
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNgSeJzLJFc 450 300] Comments »
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To update my ongoing Euro/Dollar chart, seen below, we can see that the pair climbed above 1.32 yesterday. This 1.32 level marks the gap fill that I highlighted for you back in late June/early July. While the Euro can most certainly overshoot to the upside here, I am switching to a neutral stance. I would expect a pullback to the 1.29/1.30 zone in the interim.
The pertinent issue to me, being a swing trader in equities, is whether we continue to see a direct correlation between the Euro/Dollar and global risk appetite. In other words, is it now too obvious that a pullback in the Euro versus the Dollar will lead to a selloff in equities (if the Euro does, indeed, weaken)?
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I sold out of my 1/2 position in $POWR, in front of their earnings report tomorrow. I also initiated a 1/2 buy in $CMI. The $CMI daily chart is impressive (seen below), and the underlying fundamentals of the firm are very strong as well.
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES: 42%
CASH: 58%
Comments »
