Over the past two months, I have had two main points to make about Apple:
1) The daily chart inverse head and shoulders potential bottoming pattern was quite obvious and widely-watched (see this blog post from May 22nd). And the stock was still in an established intermediate-term downtrend with clearly declining 50, 100, 150, and 200-day moving averages. Hence, the odds of it triggering to the upside imminently were diminished.
2) The monthly chart had printed a “Dragonfly Doji” candlestick for the month of April (see this blog post from May 14th). After an established downtrend, which Apple has been in since September 2012, the dragonfly doji puts us on watch for a potential upside reversal on that timeframe (here, the monthly).
Recently, Apple weakened with a weekly close below the lower end of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
However, the updated monthly, below, still indicates that the dragonfly doji has neither been confirmed nor negated, with some obvious parameters being $385 below and $454 above. What I can say for sure is that the bounce off the April lows has thus far been anemic, even if shorts have not had an easy go of it.
Overall, the stock has been startlingly unsurprising for quite some time. There are rational arguments to be made for both sides of the trade at this point, which is probably why the stock has been dead money.
One final point: Keep an eye on the lower monthly Bollinger Band, currently just below $350. The stock had spent so many years as a powerhouse riding the upper monthly Bollinger Band, that it should now not be dismissed that Apple is on the other side of the mountain where momentum cuts both ways.
The next earnings report is scheduled for July 23rd.
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thats a great analysis chess.
Thank you, dominator. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.