iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

A Look Behind the Lululemon Movement

______________________

Lululemon is undoubtedly a powerful and growing brand, opening stores at a fast rate and compelling (mostly) women of all ages to buy their clothes which, magically, make them look much more attractive while feeling comfortable. Dating back to the 2009 bear market bottom, the share price of Lululemon has appreciated rapidly and the stock was one of the clear leaders in 2009 and 2010.

Since last summer, though, LULU corrected roughly 30%, raising the issue of whether the stock had topped out indefinitely. When a high beta winner like Lululemon finally cools off after a seemingly endless run, the corrections are usually fierce and violent, punishing latecomer bulls who have little respect for risk as they pile into the next “sure thing.” Since the 30% correction, though, LULU has bounced back nicely and is screaming higher today after a Goldman Sachs upgrade.

The weekly chart below suggest that the recent multi-quarter correction was needed in terms of the long-term health of the chart. After all, the run since 2009 has become so steep that traders who respected risk knew they could not stay very long, given the risk of late-stage base failure. With the correction and consolidation, though, Lululemon may have reset its base count and could be on the march higher. On its face, the consolidation looks orderly and appears to be a bullish falling wedge/pennant. The bears had every chance for a major breakdown below $40 but could not do so. I also noted back last September in this post that I was seeing no heavy distribution in shares of LULU, leading me to believe that this entire process could just be one, long, and much-needed pause within the context of a secular growth story that could easily be resuming today.

______________________

Email this to someonePrint this page
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

14 comments

  1. speerothekid

    you would

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. tom

    I must say her folks did a fine job of rearin’ her.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. T-Bird

    Sweet baby jesus, that is an awesome picture. Lulu makes the best work out gear around. I own tons of their stuff and still want more (yes they make much more than just yoga pants).

    I imagine their stock will become ‘best in breed’ if they can manage their growth correctly. They have lots of room to grow IMO.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. garyw1

    now, that is a smilin ass, sweet!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. tw

    It would be nice if a few of the asses I see in these “fine” apparels were corrected to the tune of say… 30% as well…..Current example not included of course.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. unclehar

    The clothing is incredibly durable and the shape holds also, for years. Every teen age girl in the western world will have a pair of the pants. Fat looks very bad with them, however.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. Steven Place

    CONTROL
    SHIFT
    N

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. jg

    4 pair, same model, different colors, since jan 08.
    absolute staples.
    girlfriend other day goes “ass looks good”
    shit is magic, its truth.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. Whaler31

    I drank the kool-aid, however, I do not trust massive gap-ups….they usually have some kind of re-trace, especially if we have a big down mkt day. I am hedged, so it should all be good as long as LULU moves somewhere with conviction.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. ShamrockBaby

    She wants a spanking. clearly.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"