CrackBerry No Longer Addictive for Users

______________

One of the more difficult aspects about trading based on fundamentals is trying to discern at what point your thesis has been accurately reflected in the price of a given security. In other words, while you were correct to have conviction, at a certain point you have to wonder whether it is already baked in the cake. In the case of Research in Motion, while they are far from destitute, the firm has been the quintessential tech laggard over the past two years. To borrow a phrase from property lawyers, the fact that they are getting their heads handed to them by AAPL and other competitors is “open and notorious” to just about anyone paying attention.

As you can see on the weekly timeframe below, the price action remains messy with those crisscrossing longer-term moving averages supporting the amorphous chart. With that said, the stock has seen six consecutive weekly red candles, nearing the apex of what looks to be a falling wedge pattern. Again, you have to wonder at what point the thesis that RIMM is no longer on the cutting edge of smartphones is adequately priced in–At least on an intermediate-term timeframe (weeks, months, etc).

______________

______________

Looking at the daily chart below, the notion of RIMM nearing a tradeable bottom becomes even more acute. To be sure, we can see a clear downtrend that began on a daily timeframe in the middle of February. However, since that late March earnings drop, note the falling wedge plus the combination of the hammer and inverted hammer candlesticks late last week. When seen after a prior steep downtrend, this usually leads to a high probability long setup with a clear stop-loss defined below the low of the hammer, that being $52.66.

Comments »

________________

The recent online poker news smacks of an eventual full-blown legalization in the United States, with the major casinos profiting handsomely (along with governments on various levels). The last time I played online for any kind of serious money was back in 2006 on PartyPoker, which was basically the golden age anyway as far as the amount of “easy money” there was to be made. Since then, I have known plenty of players who kept large sums of money online, complacently assuming that they could always withdraw it if need be. That kind of assumption proved to be a costly one, as most of those accounts will likely be frozen for a very long time, if not confiscated. For me, though, despite my success a few years ago, I was much better at playing “live,” meaning in person.

My experience has been that many successful online poker players are not very good when playing in brick and mortar card rooms, as is my bread and butter. Understand that when you are sitting at a table with nine other people looking at you squarely in the eyes, most of them have only one goal in mind: To take every last penny to your name until you stumble to the parking lot as the sun rises the next morning. Sure, there are plenty of recreational players who come to the casino to have fun, but the higher the stakes, the more serious the players. Therefore, it follows that every single move or mannerism you make, and every single word you utter gives away information about your emotional state, quality of your poker hand, and how much you really “need” the money stting in front of you in the form of stacked chips.

Online players will argue that you need just as much, if not more, composure than playing live because of how fast-paced the game is. In other words, if you momentarily lose your cool and continue to play online, you will make many more mistakes than in a card room where you cannot obviously play several games at once like you can online. While this is certainly true, and there are some excellent online players for whom I have a tremendous amount of respect, there is nothing quite like the nuances of playing in real life that tests the character of a person and caliber of a player.

In trading, you simply must have the ability to move beyond the education and theory, and take the inevitable losses with cool emotional detachment. Many traders become wildly emotional simply by losing money on a trade they had conviction in and really wanted to see pay off. Can you imagine how they would react if the person on the other side of that trade was taunting and goading them every step of the way, face to face in real life? Forget about taunting for a moment, how about having to watch as the person on the other side of your trade counts and neatly organizes your money with misplaced confidence, unaware of how “lucky” he or she just got on you.

It is only if you are capable of calmly sitting there, emotional equilibrium intact, offering a genuine smile while respectfully knocking the table with your fist and sincerely saying, “Nice hand, sir,” that you just might be able to last a few more years in this trading business of ours.

________________

{A Good Lesson on Composure–Or Lack Thereof}

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EprGnEjm2oE 550 412]

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2hzVV2Nwfs 550 412] ______________

Led by HUN, the chemical space is very attractive here. As is the case with plenty of other stocks, many of these firms report earnings in the coming weeks. So, be sure to check the calendar. Nonetheless, if you want to trade around earnings, these plays look solid. Here are a few beauties to keep on the radar.

______________

______________

______________

Comments »

I began my video market recap last evening developing an idea that I had discussed for 12631 members two weeks ago. Essentially, the point was to be on watch for a dislocation between silver miners and silver, since it has become such a hot and crowded trade over the past few months. Moreover, we wanted to be on watch for the gold miners to reemerge after lagging the silvers over the previous quarters as a whole.

I am aware that there have been plenty of headlines relating to many individual silver miners over the past few days. However, while we keep gold miners on watch for strength, it is tough for me to cavalierly dismiss the fact that silver is screaming higher while the silver miners struggle to barely hold their most recent breakout. Until this divergence resolves, I am taking a hands-off approach to the silver miners.

____________

____________

Comments »

___________

The PPT is flagging the “Small Tools & Accessories” Industry as being the third ranked in the entire market, according to the hybrid score of its technical and fundamentals. To my eye, the most enticing setups are: SNA SWK TTC, as seen in their daily charts below.

Indeed, sometimes it is worthwhile to be a tool.

___________

___________

___________

Comments »

_____________

Starting with names like DECK FL and FINL, it is tough to deny how resilient the retail sector has been, which is basically a proxy for the seemingly against all odds staying power of the consumer as well. We know that many of these names have serious doubters in the form of large short positions. When traded properly, you are using those haters as fuel for the upside fire.

As far as individual names go, there is always LULU for all of your milf hunters out there. Beyond that, here are some other retail ideas. First, a quick look at the XRT, the ETF for the retail space.

Disclosure: I am currently long AEO

_____________

_____________

_____________

_____________

_____________

Comments »