Trading Around the Quagmire

The increased selling pressure has forced me to lighten up my long exposure this morning. A few names that I was holding had started to break down from technical bases, and I am more inclined to cut any losses, however marginal, in those situations than I am to hang around to see just how naughty things will get. I am seeing mixed overall signals as to whether we truly are rolling over here. As an example, FCX is still basing calmly above all of its moving averages. While I am not in the bearish camp at all, my selling discipline did see me raising cash.

As you can see on the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, we are trying to stabilize at a simple trendline dating back to June. We are also still comfortably above the lows of last Monday (07/18). Thus, as bearish as the action seems this morning, the technical damage is minimal.

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Coming this Thursday night (at a time to be determined), we will kick off IBANKCOIN TRIVIA NIGHT, with valuable prizes to be won and fun to be had by all (no homo). The theme for the questions of our first trivia night will be…former iBankCoin bloggers.

Be there!

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The high beta rare earth names have been seemingly a forgotten bunch after have some incredible momentum late last year. After correcting and then consolidating for several months, they are moving with energy today. The leader of the pack is MCP, but also watch AVL REE and SHZ. I also charted REMX, the ETF for the group.

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The market has fluctuated quite a bit over the past two sessions without really accomplishing much. Those playing for a major breakdown are still itching to see the big rollover. At the same time, I am seeing plenty of stocks that looks poised to break higher taking a few more days to work through bases, such as CAB and DKS. The semiconductors continue to outperform, and my main market tell, Freeport McMoRan, is not portending any real trouble ahead, despite the negative news flow.

Overall, the bullish technical structure of the market remains intact. While we have not seen a huge rally every single day, the more bears that have been sucked in since mid-to-late June, the more painful it has been for them each time we eventually break higher. In order for me to change my market stance, I am going to need to see far more ferocious selling than this.

Keep an eye on those bases developing, and which stocks and sectors are showing relative strength.

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This post makes about as much sense, and it just as irrelevant, as what you saw tonight on television. But, hey, at least this is more entertaining.

On a sort of related note, I see many stocks basing here, including slot machine makes BYI and IGT, not to mention many coffee stocks ahead of the Dunkin’ Donuts IPO.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kIhhH6_Si4 550 412]

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aISi8eQSDEE&feature=related 550 412]

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