Morning

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It is nice to see that yesterday’s gains have not been wiped out in the first few hours, unlike previous instances this week. The bulls are taking baby steps after getting knocked down for the count over the past few weeks. 1186 looks to be a key short-term resistance level for the S&P 500, and above that I think 1200 can be had. That said, the setups are far from ideal for high probability entry points. You are talking about of a bunch of severely oversold stocks ripe for a relief bounce after the selling pressure has been alleviated. However, there is no telling how long or how far those bounces will go, and thus the risk/reward profile is suspect here.

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The recent market action has caught the overwhelming majority of traders off-guard. As an example, as recently as a day or two ago, hedge fund legend John Paulson was down 31% for the year. Beyond the hedge funds, many individual traders were caught leaning heavily long into the crash, holding positions as they hoped an extremely oversold market would not persist. As a result, the capital destruction has been swift, violent, and cold.

In light of these events, many traders are rattled and in a state of shock. I found the following article on the “Mark and Angel Hack Life” blog, and thought it would be a great way to regroup and press forward.

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It takes more courage to reveal insecurities than to hide them, more strength to relate to people than to dominate them, more manhood (or womanhood) to abide by thought-out principles rather than blind reflex. Toughness is in the soul and spirit, not in muscles and an immature mind.

– Alex Karras

1. Life is not easy. – Hard work makes people lucky – it’s the stuff that brings dreams to reality.  So start every morning ready to run farther than you did yesterday and fight harder than you ever have before.  (Read The Road Less Traveled.)
2. You will fail sometimes. – The faster you accept this, the faster you can get on with being brilliant.  You’ll never be 100% sure it will work, but you can always be 100% sure doing nothing won’t work.  So get out there and do something!  Either you succeed or you learn a vital lesson.  Win – Win.
3. Right now, there’s a lot you don’t know. – The day you stop learning is the day you stop living.  Embrace new information, think about it and use it to advance yourself.
4. There may not be a tomorrow. – Not for everyone.  Right now, someone on Earth is planning something for tomorrow without realizing they’re going to die today.  This is sad but true.  So spend your time wisely today and pause long enough to appreciate it.
5. There’s a lot you can’t control. – Wasting your time, talent and emotional energy on things that are beyond your control is a recipe for frustration, misery and stagnation.  Invest your energy in the things you can control.
6. Information is not true knowledge. – Knowledge comes from experience.  You can discuss a task a hundred times, but these discussions will only give you a philosophical understanding.  You must experience a task firsthand to truly know it.
7. You can’t be successful without providing value. – Don’t waste your time trying to be successful, spend your time creating value.  When you’re valuable to the world around you, you will be successful.  (ReadLinchpin: Are You Indispensable?)
8. Someone else will always have more than you. – Whether it’s money, friends or magic beans that you’re collecting, there will always be someone who has more than you.  But remember, it’s not how many you have, it’s how passionate you are about collecting them.  It’s all about the journey.
9. You can’t change the past. – As Maria Robinson once said, “Nobody can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending.”  You can’t change what happened, but you can change how you react to it.
10. The only person who can make you happy is you. – The root of your happiness comes from your relationship with yourself.  Sure external entities can have fleeting effects on your mood, but in the long run nothing matters more than how you feel about who you are on the inside.
11. There will always be people who don’t like you. – You can’t be everything to everyone.  No matter what you do, there will always be someone who thinks differently.  So concentrate on doing what you know in your heart is right.  What others think and say about you isn’t all that important.  What is important is how you feel about yourself.
12. You won’t always get what you want. – As Mick Jagger once said, “You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you might find you get what you need.”  Look around.  Appreciate the things you have right now.  Many people aren’t so lucky.
13. In life, you get what you put in. – If you want love, give love.  If you want friends, be friendly.  If you want money, provide value.  It really is this simple.  (Read The Four Agreements.)
14. Good friends will come and go. – Most of your high school friends won’t be a part of your college life.  Most of your college friends won’t be a part of your 20-something professional life.  Most of your 20-something friends won’t be there when your spouse and you bring your second child into the world.  But some friends will stick.  And it’s these friends – the ones who transcend time with you – who matter.
15. Doing the same exact thing every day hinders self growth. – If you keep doing what you’re doing, you’ll keep getting what you’re getting.  Growth happens when you change things – when you try new things – when you stretch beyond your comfort zone.
16. You will never feel 100% ready for something new. – Nobody ever feels 100% ready when an opportunity arises.  Because most great opportunities in life force us to grow beyond our comfort zones, which means you won’t feel totally comfortable or ready for it.

And remember, trying to be someone else is a waste of the person you are.  Strength comes from being comfortable in your own skin.

Direct Video Link Click Here

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Those of you who followed my work way back in April of 2010 know that I grew cautious on the market then as we formed that diamond topping pattern, with a higher high, but also a lower low which gives way to the downside after more chop. After a prior downtrend though, the diamond can be a bullish bottoming pattern, with confirmation of course.

On the 30-minute chart of the S&P 500 below, you can see we have formed one of these rare chart patterns, and we look to be awfully close to confirming here. This is not a daily chart, so I am reticent to make a huge “this is the bottom” call, but a strong close does bode extremely well for the bulls over the next few days.

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“The mawket told me that my soderrrrrr popped.” -Gary Kaminsky, Co-Host “Strategy Session” on CNBC.

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The market has come down in, for all intents and purposes, a crash over the past few weeks. Now that we are “down under,” the issue is whether we are seeing some sloppy consolidation before head lower, or whether this is a bottoming process. The reality is that there is smart money on both sides of the trade, and we will simply need to let it play out, in order to arrive at higher probability entry points for swing trades–Long or short–in the future.

Looking at the real estate sector, we can see that the IYR has actually been outperforming just about every other sector over the past few session. However, the daily chart is forming a textbook bear flag. Is it too obvious? See this piece I wrote several months ago for reference.

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