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The argument can be made that, for much of 2010 and 2011, the equity market has been following the moves of silver. While the jury is still out on how precise and lasting that relationship will be, I suspect that if silver rolls over for another major leg lower here, then stocks will have a tough go of it as well. Today, the SLV, ETF for silver, is seeing a nasty gap down after wedging higher for several weeks to almost touch to the declining 20-day moving average. Lots of eyes are on silver, so I expect continued headfakes. However, another leg down is a real threat and should be respected given the sloppiness and damage sustained on the chart.
Yah, 32 proving to be a touch nut to bust
Hey Chess, thanks for the concern if I was long yesterday. As I was going through my charts looking for a new long, I saw how much DECK was up on the day before noon. Saw the daily candle and the BB. Worked down to the 5 min., looked like it was way over extended after a 7 day run with blow off volume, as I watched, the high was put in at 109.90 but there was a divergence in the stochastics (5 min). The 1, 2 and 3 minute screens had gone negative on the parabolic sar and the five was getting ready to do the same. Also thinking with the DOW up almost 1200 that there was a good chance of profit taking on Friday or earlier. Seemed like the odds were good for a move down. Shorted at 12:18 @108.35, targets 105.95, then 104.70 short term (1-3 days). Got lucky with a down day open. Missed the 9:30 low of 103.78, bailed at 10:05 @105.02 for 3%.
Daily if we break down has low 90’s in it.
Just wanted the opinion of someone I truly respect. Love your no BS manner. Thank you. Sorry, I don’t tweet.
Good thinking. I agree.
Thanks man. Keeping an eye on it, if it can’t exceed the top of the tail on yesterdays daily might be worth another shot.
Also, there is that nasty wick on the front-month future on 9/26 at $26.15. And the 50 is racing down to the 200. We all know what that means. That’s the time to sell puts!
Only intel of mention is silver’s margin move down May wasn’t followed by gold.
Also, gold’s double top preceded silver’s timber.
Finally, for the first time in recorded history, 9.11.”11″, gold surpassed platinum.
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Thus, I would look for a divergence in one of the two (currently, id gaps), then I would consider the “laggard” for positioning (subject to JIG’s blessing).
You are taking the first derivative so to speak.
You need only follow le dolorous dollar.
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my zsl is workin it today. hope no one was in agq heavily today.
No, but I am in SLW/AG/EXK.
If spot silver breaks over $32.20, get out of the ZSL.
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i will,thanks j
chess,
I pretty sure the dollar found its low yesterday. And that’s because it’s now on day 20 of a daily cycle which last 20 to 28 days and since the cycle is right translated near the end of the cycle, it makes it more certain that the lows of Sept 15 or 16 won’t be violated. So if indeed we have a low in place now, the dollar should rally at least for awhile. Probably not good for the PMs and /or the market in the near term.
So when does the ‘Santa Claus” rally start ????…….
When he goes by on the Macy’s T-day Parade… usually Black Friday since the market’s off the prior day.
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I don’t see a correlation between silver and the market. However I do see GLD and AAPL faintly tracking each other…
Crash in silver in the spring…followed by the crash of the S&P 500 over the summer. Plus the up-moves in the market earlier in the year could be argued as silver leading.