Traps Everywhere

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The market continue sot be challenging due to the ephemeral nature of any semblance of trend. We still remain in a broad rising channel since early August, the bold bears are becoming increasingly antsy by the day as their bear flag/rising wedge thesis morphs into a more neutral pattern. I am cutting laggards while being methodical with my winners, with nearly 70% cash at my disposal for when the market can leave its emotional baggage in the dust.

This type of a market reminds me of a tough no-limit poker game (a legitimate live poker game, not the con known as online poker). No-limit poker differs from limit, or structured betting, not only in the sense that you can go all-in at any time and bet as you see fit, but also because it is much more of a trapping game. Clearly, this type of market is filled with traps and requires much more thinking through things than a trending market. And by traps, I mean for both longs and shorts.

In my experience, the key to being successful a tough n0-limit poker filled with traps everywhere is to play extra cautiously and wait for an ideal spot to pounce. I know that advice sounds like it could work for any market, but in a trending market you should not be nearly as cautious as you should now. So, while there are opportunities, I am focusing on not getting too high or too low here about the market until the channel is broken in either direction.