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Many traders are understandably becoming even more frustrated with this market than they have been over the past few days. A promising rally this morning has been fading all day, and we are back to flat going into the last two hours of trading. For the record, I am still long all of my positions, and I will hold them until my stop losses are breached. I believe the risk/reward profile is still in my favor to the upside, despite what all of the geniuses on the twitter stream would have you believe.
To drive home a point: I have an opinion here. I have placed my bets, and I am willing to accept the risks associated with making such bets.
Perhaps some of you superstars have a 1000% lifetime batting average, and will laugh in my face upon the occurrence of an old fashioned crash (or “panic” as it were, prior to 1929). Such is life.
Now, you can go back to saying “OMG OMG OMG OMG!” every time crude oil ticks down, and the Yen ticks up.
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES: 56%
- LONG: 56% ($AAP $NR $NTAP $LULU $CRM $THOR $APKT)
CASH: 44%
Long $NR with you, still looking good.
outperformer–you’ve been on that and BWEN for a while, RC. Great stuff.
Indeud. From up 2% to flat means we are right back to where we put on the trades.
Stops were invented for such times.
Good point CnWine
While I am not with you this time on the long side I appreciate your confidence to
stick with your working thesis.
So I can find that trading systemme [sic] that has zero drawdown, and only picks winners on twitter? Is it free? I don’t want to spend any money on systemmes [sic] that don’t work.
Yeah, just look for people who speak in absolutes on twitter, and then discover how much money they made AFTER the fact when they tweet about the huge profit theyre taking.
Just follow panamaorange and do the exact opposite. Turd and I have been banking on that trade for a few weeks now.
From this daytrader’s point of view, if we get a buy entry today, you can expect a rally back to 1032 today or tomorrow on the SPX. Entry close, but not triggered.
You mean according to your breadth readings, right?
Correct and just got the entry a couple of min’s ago at 15:34
DO you read Spyder Crusher and Woodshedder’s blogs? They have awesome breadth reports consistently posted.
Yes, I’ve read them, but find them too confusing and ambiguous. My work leaves no room for conjecture, I just follow the few indicators I use, enter and exit when instructed by them. I really don’t need to look at price for that matter.
Interestingly, my work ONLY seems to apply to intraday trading. I have been studying TA since I met Bob Prechtor and Joe Granville in the 80’s and this methodology I’ve developed amazes me everyday.
Please keep in mind that I daytrade options, so little of these signals are useful for investing or swingtrading.
Just a closing comment. The SPY ended the day with that camoflage sell bar that I mentioned earlier. While this is not an “indicator” or “signal” it does signify that yes, we had an up day, but pro’s likely exiting the building! You’ll see more of these on 6/23 and 6/25 in DIA
They tend to be most useful in trading instruments, not indexes.
Hey philsy,
I thought that candle was only a “high probability” while in an uptrend? Is it still valid in a downtrend?
Chess:
Congrats on the Fly shoutout. I’m not surprised though, I’ve been following you since your “double dip trader” days.
Dear Kenai,
Thanks for the question. The bar (I don’t use candles) is significant since it results in a “green” close but a close below the open (all related to that day’s trading). Tom Demark thought that meant pro’s selling (in this case). I only use them after strong advances or declines in stocks along with other qualifiers. Please see the examples I cited.
They remind me, in some ways, of “smash” bars as defined by Larry Williams. Smash buys and sells are, without question, the most accurate of all short term trading tools, in my opinon.
The only use two “camo” formations in intraday trading. We had a smash sell in my indicator yesterday morning which led to the decline.