Well, perhaps not.
However, with the futures down big, we appear set to open below the recent 1055 low. Moreover, we are not far from challenging the early February lows of 1043 on the S&P 500. Undoubtedly, we *should* have been able to muster some kind of rally on Monday and going into Tuesday. The fact that each bounce has been aggressively faded is troubling.
I would like to hear what you guys think. For those of you up late tonight, I would like to know:
1) Do you expect a morning gap down to be aggressively bought, or do you think we will have a complete washout?
2) What is your game plan? Buy the dip? Put on some daytrading shorts? Stay mostly in cash?
Consider this an open forum. You can vent, ramble, tell dirty jokes, etc..
Let me watch the europe open…BTW I HATE JIM O’NEIL…sorry he was on TV right now, total idiot when it comes to China….will post in a bit.
NO! This is a closed book exam, Nymph!!! No cheating!
roflol…ok ok….Europe isn’t open yet…..SPX has to hold 1060 into the morning, if it fails it’s next support is 1006 using my fibo non elliott wave analysis….btw we are in a new Bear Market that should go for about 17 months, there could be an attempted rally, but 3rd qtr should take care of that….if I am guessing….stupid shanghai copper bubble.
t theory agrees Ms. N — 17 months..
http://www.ttheory.com/
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html
I was the one that got Terry to start posting his numbers every day when for the life of me I couldn’t get the Vol Osc math correct, and bugged him to post the numbers for about a week so I could double check my work….I am also one with the T…..I mix T w/Fibo….Terry Rules…but like RainMan he is hard to follow for many.
See, First Minute went from 1061 to 1058ish….now we are in the process of retesting that 1060 but as resistance….I love this game.
Think I’ll stay out of the sun …Long -Solarcaine…Short- sun ripened tuna
NICE!
I don’t know if we’ll open w a gap down a whole lot, but I’d guess at least 1%. Probably some buying of the “big stocks” by the “big guys” like happened today- but not by us regular folks. Plan is same as it’s been for awhile- stay in almost all cash- hold my TLT and TZA for hedging- of the few stocks I’m holding… main focus is to keep working on list of things I want to buy
when we get down to……to…….tbd lol
Scotty B thinks it is 950 on the SPX.
I don’t see a bounce coming anytime soon. We’re extremely oversold, but like you said, that doesn’t mean we will bounce. Having said that, I should have sold my 2 longs I bought on Friday and go all cash today.
I will probably sell my position tomorrow morning and sit on cash.
I hear you–I am inclined to be in line with your thinking.
Ryan…Are you the Ryan I know?
I don’t think so.
Too bad….but I had to ask cuz this blogging trading world is pretty small.
If you believe in EW (which I do not) then you would believe that today was the beginning of a final minor wave 5 of major wave one and you would start buying anything under the previous low.
Then you would fade that bounce (wave two) for a brutal wave 3 down again.
But again… I don’t buy the theory and while I went to cash in late april I will buy the dip and hope for a higher high rather than a 50% retrace and then a lower low. Did I say hope… I mean wait, hope is for douches and day traders.
1047.5 as I type!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
1042.5 almost 3% down.
Hey Chess,
One of the benefits of living in Hawaii is that this old man can still be up to answer your query at 8:21 p.m. Hawaii time, while the wife watches reality T.V.
Sorry to say, but I would have had trouble staying up as late as you even in my younger days.
As for your census: I’m in cash and have been since April 27. I still think it a very good place to be.
However, below 1044 or so, my most respectable (think China man) trend following system will signal it’s time to short. (disrespect to ethnic groups not at all intended)
Other not so respectable, but not necessarily less accurate systems have signal this already.
Most trustworthy system is saying sidelines for now.
None of my three systems have told me that it’s time to go long. Also as, of course everyone knows, the trend following approach is the opposite of the oscillator approach and I really like trying for the middle of the move as opposed to trying to catch the dramatic tops and bottoms.
That said, I’m still a newbie and still trying to combine trend following with T.A.,
Looking for a gap down to support around 1045. Then a bounce to maybe 1110 followed by a drop to 944 and worse case scenario 878. That will set up Primary Wave3 to new highs (4 year presidential cycle) unless we breach 878 then the double dip will be confirmed.
This reeks of capitulation…$SPY 102 should be bought with both hands
When the market “should” do something and it doesn’t it’s always bad news. I’m over 50% cash. I sold the last of my VXX and QID yesterday about 20 minutes before the close. I’m just too burned out from the last couple of weeks of market action to have a coherent and actionable market view, so I stepped away. When it “looks safe” I’ll try to play the bounce. I have no idea what “looks safe” means. Maybe this IS like 1987 where “looks safe” was 6 weeks away from the initial event (in this case the flash crash). We shall see in the fullness of time. BTW where’s TraderCaddy wen you need him?
I am 48% in cash, the rest is direct gold price exposure – NOT the miners. Last week’s gold correction took that down some but nothing consequential. As for this down-spike in equities I think we have crossed into a short only market. I’ll short hard into the next bounce but not until. Today I’ll be sitting on my hands.
Mkt will go up and retrace at least half its losses when gov’t and GS strike a deal and Goldman agrees to start supporting the market again with the free money that they get from their FED branch – likely soon.
Who cares? It’s time to ride the lazy hedge river.
THANKS FOR POSTING YOUR COMMENTS GUYS!