iBankCoin
Joined Nov 29, 2008
329 Blog Posts

Market Thoughts

Do not go around searching for the next NUVA. You’ll be wasting so much time. Instead, try to stay focused on your daily trading plan. I hate it when people ask me “How high do you think XYZ is going to go?” or “How do you find the next lottery winner?” Truth is, they just come on rare occasions and you either catch them, or you don’t. Constantly expecting that you’ll make a killing is comparable to the guy that goes to his local Wawa to buy a lottery ticket everyday. You may win big, but most likely you won’t. I want to remind you to remain focused and aligned with your goals with reasonable expectations.

As for the market, it is still range bound, regardless of today’s move. The SPX and DJIA are trading in rising wedges, both above the 50-day MA and also back within intermediate-term consolidation zones. The RUT looks the best with the highest chance of testing the January highs, followed by the COMP, both of which broke out of bull flags.

spxdjirutcomp
Most of the sectors are trading in consolidations.

Channels/wedges – XLV, XLK, XLF
Triangles – XLB, XLI, XLU, XLE

The best one that is holding daily highs and flagging is the XLP (staples). The number of consolidations indicate that there is a much, much greater move coming soon. Personally, I’d pay attention to the symmetrical triangles with near apex completions.

xlbxlvxlkxlpxlixluxlfxle
It is March, and I’m ready to buy some gold (IT/LT) on a successful break of the channel. There are multiple consolidation patterns, tight MA ranges, and a neutral range to consider – all of them indicating that a consolidation breaking move should be coming soon.

gld
I always found Doug’s work very interesting over at dshort.com, especially the “Road to Recovery?” diagram. I believe we will mimic the S&P 500 Oil Crash Recovery and the S&P 500 Tech Crash Recovery. Repeating the 1929 crash is unlikely.

fromlows

badbears

I am neutral on the general market on all time-frames and continually stress selection of individual equities as the main way to go.

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38 comments

  1. GETGroup

    we need a good old fashioned dow theory “confirm” of the new uptrend that the COMP and RUT are trying to pull off before I’ll believe anything of the sort

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  2. ZMoose

    Yes, yes, yes. Awesome stuff as always.

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  3. frog65

    Thank you for the post CA. Always great to hear your thoughts.

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  4. momoboy

    INSM BTFO

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  5. Purdy

    short spls 23.82

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  6. Purdy

    kfn 7.37

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  7. Purdy

    short tecd 41.21

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    • Purdy

      I am eating a very expensive sandwich

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      • frog65

        I am very impressed of your consistent posting of trades Purdy.
        Whats in the sandwich?

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        • Purdy

          Crow. The stock faked out lower and I was too cheap to cover after it ran beyond my stop when I wasn’t paying attention. Ended-up eating about 1/3 of the day’s profit.

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          • frog65

            That totally sucks, but hey you’ve got a profit! I’m short /es at 1120.25. Hope I don’t get the sandwich next…..

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            • frog65

              cover 1118.00, bounce 60min trendline

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              • Purdy

                Nice. I shorted with the crowd at when it broke the minute trend at 14:52 hours …118.50 – holding short for now.

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                • frog65

                  This will be nice for you if 1117- 1116 doesn’t hold! I’m done until tomorrow.

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  8. mrsbuttons

    great show tonight John – what great info on volume…you are stellar! your delivery is so much improved from your first show – you imo have the BEST show on Stocktwits – no bullshit, or jokes, or personal shit…just info gleaned from your own experience..kudos to you…the others should take note…man they put me to sleep with all that psycho babble…hahaha

    any thoughts on TSTC or CHGY?

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  9. The Chart Addict

    Bought $NOVL 6.0893

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  10. The Chart Addict

    Sold $NOVL 6.0918

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  11. momoboy

    VICL BTFO

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  12. The Chart Addict

    did anyone swing $CPE with me few weeks ago?

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  13. Purdy

    end 1.39

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  14. Purdy

    nktr 13.94, .98

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  15. Purdy

    egle 5.79

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  16. Purdy

    mdvn 13.37

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  17. The Chart Addict

    Bought $MDVN Mar 12.5 calls

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