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10:00am USD New Home Sales
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
12:00pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
Reposted from last night (retox)
Bought $HGSI $21.98
Sold $CPST 1.36
AIG crash begins…
Sold half $HGSI $22.64
CVM
GNBT longs
Sold other half $HGSI 22.28/29
Short ARUN at 8.20
covered 8.23
cno
Bought $SOMX 2.449
News incoming
CVM..moving
Bought $JAZZ $7.35
volume in RAS and CERS
Bought $SQNM 5.52
ISPH
doubled $SOMX 2.709
Sold $JAZZ 7.24
Sold $SQNM 5.61
Bought GNVC .89
Bought $STEM 1.69
Sold $SOMX 2.80
Done for the day, good luck everyone. +2.5
Aug 26 log: http://chart.ly/xkcxep
Bought TPTX .44/various fracs
ALU anybody playing it?
Sold GNVC .88. Bought CVM .6652
Sold $STEM 1.71/frac
Bought STEM 1.69
sold at 1.69 and bought back 1.65
I’m busy. you’re all on your own.
Pos (as of timestamp); TPTX, SPNG, CVM
GNBT getting close..CVM working well so far…
AAPL..tell nasdaq is done…
Still holding those 160 puts?
Bought $TSTR 1.30
ok now im busy. bbl
SOMX still looking strong here!
SPNC flat base breakout on daily
GTN big volume
Euro asc triangle 1 minute chart – ready to break – bond auction/mkt reaction should resolve the direction
careful if the breakout looks strong – Euro has been prone to very quick reversals on mkt news lately – fast scalps only an don’t fall in love with the direction.
dull
almost not worth the time today…
fucking INO…this thing is spastic..stops, goes, reverses…crazy slut bitch stock…
SOMX moving!
fucker..i sold way too early…INO looks ready to go also..
Although it’s finding a healthy bid on every dip, my best guess is that the Euro looks to be in a sideways chop – a likely continuation pattern to move through 1.4200.
The only way to play this is to slowly build a short position in the 1.4234 to 1.4241 range. Sell 2 chunks, wait for a dip, cover half the position.
If / when it makes it back to the above range, add another chunk – doubling the position to get back to the original short. Wait for a dip toward 1.4223 to 1.4227 area and again cover half.
Repeat, repeat, repeat. This will help you build some profits in the chop and you will be well positioned to handle a breakout to either direction without losing any money unless it takes off after your first short.
On the break (with volume confirmation), double the position again.
Watch for 1.4202 to be a tough level to the downside – cover at least half
Watch for 1.4248 to be a tough level to the upside – cover at least half
got 6 pips in the bank on the last wave.
very cautious of the asc tri re-forming
original short position is now “insured” up to 1.4246
not adding to the short if the SPX continues to rip
7 more pips fading the last wave from the top of the (new) rising wedge – 1 min from 11am – harder to play but I need some danger to keep me awake today.
could quickly become a channel – cautious
now insured up to 1.4253
need a break down soon to invalidate the basing pattern
loving TA
Who doesn’t like tits and ass?
Good point – TA is a beautiful thing
BCSI at 19.50
MYGN at 30.42
out at 30.34
damn… timing so bad on BEAT
Been watching this sucker for weeks!
ARIA is consolidating and knocking on the door….
HEB moving again
CA,
Possible tristar formation on the SPX daily??
AIG set up long
Epic call
is JAZZ going to fall through the floor tonight?
Bot ARNA again @ $4.92 for overnight hold …. high pole bull flag bo
$AIG and SPNG spec overnight
Another sick call.
indeud… too bad I didn’t follow suit, esp with the testosterone infused AIG
I don’t hold over night but had some decent trades in AIG going into the bell.
FNG = fucking new guy?
GOD DAMN – AIG!
Nice calls
You fuckers have NO IDEA how lucky you are that CA does this shit for free. NO IDEA.
Charming.
A visual, for those that need it…right around the 2min mark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOVXh4xM-Ww
NO IDEA!
Fly,
No offense, but I don’t see ‘lucky’ as an issue here. A gifted person like CA is NO fool who gives unselfishly what he cannot keep (his gifted trading talent) in order to Gain what he cannot lose. (The Gain CA will never lose are the many traders who are forever indebted to CA and forever grateful to CA as the person who actually changed their life and improved the life style of their family forever.)
Thank you, Ca for all your time, charts, teachings, answers, advice, alerts, etc., etc., … you are a household name in my family … You are one hell-of-a-person!!
bump
covered Euro short from above 1.4239
+12 pips on 1st half
+1 on 2nd half
think AIG is still good to open new pos?
SQNM may be setting up for continuation today… looks decent PM
(disclosure: long )
Everyone asleep or what? Where are all those picks we all know and love.
1017 Mike
That top line was just too much to take out… I saw this number in my dreams… no idea from here
The market to be in today is /NG (Nat gas) on the report.
We just rolled to the new contract giving us fresh downside to attack if the report is bad.
Take little scalps and be very careful with stock on energy futures – it whips around a lot.
should have said careful with “stops” on energy futures (sorry)
retox gets a cookie, ES back down to 116 levels as foretold
Been shorting the eff out of it, back in short 1016
Covered -.5, support from 8/13 and 8/14 highs too big to break through so far
Mike,
www.
xxx
forex
xxx
factory.
xxx
com
Mike,
sorry for the odd format on that last one – there has to be a filter that keeps blocking the post with that address.
you mentioned checking news every day. That is the #1 source for mrket movers.
Great, thanks. I’ll add it to my bookmarks.
their blogs are worthless – Yahoo or worse – but their listing of reports on the home page is the easiest, most complete, and they update the numbers instantly.
I love you Nat Gas –
Out of my short with 40 ticks
CHB anyone?
Bought BBI @ 1.04
Out @ 1.03… volume didnt continue to accelerate.
FRP was a nice play this morning, and TEC also… watch those for more breakouts during the day
I honesly can not believe the move AIG has been making. This is insane.
Ahaha! I love it. The topic for my finance lecture today is ‘Why Technical Analysis Doesn’t Work’ I wonder what the prof would say if I told him I made enough to pay all my bills for the month while eating breakfast this morning?
http://chart.ly/abssmc — Log for today, +7.5 hell yeah
Have I mentioned I love you guys? CA for all the beautiful pattern explanation, retox for pointing me towards futures, and all the other regulars whose trades I’ve been analyzing to show me what I’m doing right and wrong. <3
Hope you guys bank some major coin today, peace out cub scouts.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall for that one…
TA is the ONLY thing that works IMO because, as it is a derivative of current market conditions, it is always directly correlated where other indicators do not adapt and change.
The market is a living breathing entity and it can not be nailed down with a non-dynamic approach. FA ignores psychology and fear & greed are simply the most powerful forces in the market.
Where TA is accused of failure, it is often the result of a mis-read by the trader or refusal to see the writing on the wall.
What I wonder is now that TA is so widely accepted, how often is it actually used against traders – “trading the (TA) trader”? How often are obvious and established patterns being manipulated to “trick” TA’ers into traps, false breakouts, etc.? I guess we’ll never know for sure, and it wouldn’t be productive to start trying to outguess the guessers, etc. If it works, use it.
Two follow-up issues/questions:
1. Assuming that there is some manipulation of TA patterns going on, would there be less of that in small-caps, due to less institutional presence? Or more, because they are more easily manipulated due to lower volume?
2. Are traditional TA patterns more “valid” (i.e., less manipulated) in newer markets, such as China?I’ve been seeing some pretty nice agreement with Fibonacci levels, for example, in some of the Chinese stocks. Purely random observation, and no concrete evidence whatsoever.
$AIG LOL what a move!
After a sharp 108 tick drop, nat gas is finding a very hesitant bid here. If you believe patterns repeat, we should stabilize and consolidate for another leg down overnight/tomorrow like last Thursday / Friday.
IMO the new contract makes it more likely we will see that repeat.
buying AIG here?
clrt, nct
clrt, nct, stx
C is balling out of control; looooooool AIG
abk, fre, bpop
add MBI to this trio
OMG AIG is retarded
The more i look at BPOP the more i think it has a chance to be like C. They are trading very cheaply compared to even C, and the govt just converted their preferred stock into common stock… boosting Tier 1 capital…
anybody have an opinion? thinking of executing a swing trade as it starts to break out above 1.90
Bought BPOP @ 1.89 for a swing
Always nice to see the stock fall 3% as soon as you buy lol
whats the reason for AIG’s move?
technicals and green shoots
Id guess short covering … as per CA
CIT on the move
watch CLRT
C BTFO btw
ES 1024 is an important level to clear and stay above
scaling into a Euro short with a 1.4250 area target today/tonight
DAMN – I didn’t expect it to work THAT fast – never got to build a big enough position before it rolled over.
2 contracts only – covered at 1.4263 +10 pips
Currency traders are really responding to the 1024 level on ES – almost like a pivot. If we stay below, I think 1017 test is in play again.
1.91 buy stop on bpop seems pruden
Next up?
GNW
Rolling over …. Fail
ES 1024 2nd test failed.
currency markets positioned for no 3rd test and/or deep retrace with failure of 3rd test
Euro at support – failure should help drag the SPX back down.
took the long side – going to cut fast on ES below 1024
stopped at BE – no conviction in the move
CIT how does it look on the daily 10 minute??
OCNF
BPOP is going to break $1.89 sooner or later and head for $2….beautiful intraday chart…
agreed. I have a buy stop for $1.90.
getting closer….opened first position this morning at $1.74 and been adding to it all day….
watch FNM and CIT for b/o; CIT seems close
Sequence: ABK – MBI – CIT – GNW
In CIT now @ $1.41
Starting to ramp now ..
IN BIG on BPOP @ $1.90
TGIC
CIT looks good here; need more volume on bpop over 1.90 here; i think we’re getting it
lots of fresh breakouts; FNM and FRE; ABK MBI;
ABK looks to be finishing its’ third leg up – MBI still working on its’ second – CIT just starting second leg
That handle on the C&H really broke out … hope someone followed me in from this post:
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/2009/08/21/broadening-formation-neutral-range-developing/#comment-17695
Out of CIT @ $1.54 .. will reload in about 30 mins for final leg
Missed the reload @ $1.48 … looking for 1.46 but got “stuck on the phone with my mom” … haha!
AXL btfo
Thanks for the alert, GOon. Im IN!!
WOW … Could there be another leg up left in ABK?
Overnights: $FRE, $CIT $ZQK, SPNG
Heading to DisneyWorld… long 5% BPOP and CIT
Holding BPOP overnight. also have positions in ZZ, WNR, and CNXT
CA, when you take chart requests, can you do IBKR? (to more likely break down or up?)
My ISP is blocked from login to stocktwits. thx
I can’t get on Stocktwits either CA – can you do CAEI and FNSR? Thanks!!
Stepped out on a boring market to find that I missed a monster move in the USD.
From what I can tell, there was nothing to cause this move other than the fact that, as I mentioned earlier, traders were positioned for a broad market sell-off and, as oil ripped into its 2:30 close and the market turned flat, their was a massive unwind of this trade.
I can’t see this as anything other than a wild over-reaction and I’m going short the Euro. My first entry was 1.4360, my second entry was 1.4355. The move below 1.4352, to me is bearish and important to this trade. I will have a target of 1.4312. I may cover all or just half at that level – determination to be made at that time.
I will reconsider this position on a push above 1.4360 – either adding to the short or covering as I see fit and based on action in ES.
watch CVM run again tomorrow.