The day’s actions were acceptable, but I would have liked to seen more neutral flagging. Neutral flagging is a continuation pattern for the down side. Pronounced sell-offs create reactionary rallies. The funny thing was that the day was actually half and half. It looks like we could have an inside day or a continuation of the sell-off. I am short like you wouldn’t believe, 25% of it from EOD Friday, and I refuse to cover because there is no reason to do so presently.
The financials, especially the insurers, are in a heap of pain and the breakaway is more pronounced in that sector more than any other sector (surprise!). The insurers, such as HIG, MET, LNC, PRU, and AFL most likely started a new leg down. BAC, WFC, JPM, C, PNC, COF, and STI have all broken down, forming major breakaway gaps.
Looking at the rally from the start, the uptrend of many sectors are still intact. The financials are once again dragging the market down. To get the biggest bang for your buck, it’s best to short the financials and not any other sector. However, don’t trade them if you can’t the volatility. The other sectors must follow the financials quickly for any meaningful decline to take place.
Awesome post!
i like the 3rd S&P chart where the blue lines show the trend of a more aggressive downturn even during the larger down trend.
For people who’d like to short financials but don’t want to get near the leveraged, remember there’s SEF. It’s a 1x short financials. some times we talk about FAZ and FAS so much on this site I forget there are normal, un-leveraged short ETFs.
Cool post. I think today’s action is critical. We could be looking at another short-term reversal (or attempt to reverse) towards the upside especially on the financials. Still a lot of indecision at the moment. Asia closed firmer today and Europe has opened mildly higher as of writing.
hammy, that’s like switching viewing habits to the WNBA from March Madness…just sayin.
nice charts mate…appreciated…
Excellent post and analysis. Really like the charts you threw up, especially the first one on the bear markets.
Will you keep updating that one?
Thanks.
Great post! I love the charts and your confidence!
SEF, good point. I often trade smaller sizes of SRS or SKF (become I’m fucking sensible), but getting fills or targets is like catching paint with a tennis racket. and stops are scary or useless, just asking for it.
SEF seems to have a huge spread, but at least humans can perceive its movements.
will look for entry today as it bottoms. QQQQ making the bulls horny
fakeout?
Volume’s eh…..
Decent push though. Didn’t expect this much so soon today.
Afternoon will fade the morning……?
CA outstanding charts…workin’ hard before Cancun eh? A few more pesos in the pocket!
alpha, u can get the 4 bear comparison chart, updated eod everyday, at dshort.com.
I’m lazy as hell right now. I’ll be staying at the Moon Palace Golf & Spa Resort, all inclusive. Signed up for all these tours for each day of the week. Lots of good stuff.
Check out Tulum while you’re there. What is your overhead cover point CA? We’re getting uncomfortably close to the $SPX 805+ channel.
It’s a swing, so it depends on tomorrow’s action, but my max cut off pt is if all my of March gains get wiped out.
Palace all inclusives are supposed to be real nice, Moon Palace is a little south of Cancun proper.
If you signed up for the Chita Itza tour its worth it but a very long day..
Took my family to a bull fight one day as well.
Have a great time…hopefully your flights work out well, we took United from IAD and were there in 3 hours.
I’m waiting for another trend on the S&P up so I’ll be in cash for a little while
Thanks for the charts again
Yea I’m doing the Chichen Itza, Isla Mujeres tour, snorkeling at Cozumel, and lapis tours, Tulum, Xcaret, so far.
I’ve been to Cancun/Cozumel a few times. I couldn’t believe parents were letting their kids run up and down the steps on the pyramid at Chichen Itza(the steps are narrow and the climb is steep). If you fall coming down, you are dead meat.
I never bought any of the touristy stuff at the kiosks or stores there. After I got back, I went to a mexican version of Walmart in Georgia(they had a little bit of everything) and saw the same stuff they were selling in Mexico for half the price.
Tons of chicks hang out at Senor Frogs BTW… and it was top optional on the beach or at least some of girls there thought it was.
Great post, John. And sounds like a great trip.
Have fun and try not to get kidnapped!