Here’s the video of Cramer getting shitted on by Stewart (for those trying to look for it):
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B96vUHKN_I4 450 300]Not too shabby today! The market was riding the upper range of the channel until it broke out. Half my long positions were sold out in the afternoon and I was finished for the rest of the day. I am 12% long/10% short/RIC, so I have no personal bias toward either side. I know people who are insanely long and insanely short, but at this stage, after a double-digit run-up in the market, I think it’s best to get hedged, no matter what side you are on. Or, why not wait until Monday and just enjoy a 3-day weekend?
It gets tricky here as you can see in the 1 month/60-min chart. We are sitting right above the 20-day MA, only about 20 pts away from the 30-day MA, and there’s a whole bunch of support and resistance all over the place. Keep in mind that it can get really choppy here. I think I’ll sit this one out and take a road trip. In my opinion, we are due for a pullback and we are in a zone where it is very possible for that to happen. Also make note of the multi-month charts of the various indices approaching ‘chop zones’ and resistance areas. I take no chances here.
On a fundamental level, I find it hard to believe that C, JPM, WFC, and now BAC have all of a sudden become “profitable”. BAC and C are stressing that they don’t require anymore government capital. All of a sudden just like that? Businesses that lose money need to reach the breakeven stage before becoming profitable. All we can do is wait until they report to see if the CEOs told the truth, but I find it difficult to believe that the big boys are all making money now…just like that. Now THAT’s a miracle!
On a fundamental level, I find it hard to believe that C, JPM, WFC, and now BAC have all of a sudden become “profitable”. BAC and C are stressing that they don’t require anymore government capital. All of a sudden just like that?
What the banks basically announced was that their net interest margin was enough to cover operating expenses, which is a big DUH! given that the Fed has reduced the banks’ cost of funds to almost nothing.
But banking is nothing if not figuring out how to charge enough interest and fees to cover losses from bad loans, so a banker reporting their results ex losses is not reporting the results of a bank.
Hey, Chart Addict:
I think they got an up-front note from Geitner, telling them they were gonna jam some new reg’s down our throats via “mark-to-market” accounting rules, and the banks are making “forward looking statements” (probably protected by “safe harbor” rules)
After all, now they can just turn around blame the guv’ment if they have to re-state things.
VERY Scary new administration!
Co-ksuckers!
fuck the gov’t and fuck the banks
I think ottnott’s got it. It’s incomprehensible how they could be “profitable” with the shear amount of toxic assets. The overall money flow just does not support it, even if you assume deposits have increased by 2-5%, they are borrowing at near zero, and they are running on interest received. We’re not the only ones that want to see their spreadsheet.
Hey, regardless, Jamie’s manipulation worked this week, no?
About the banks, normally I don’t buy into the tin foil hat stuff, but let’s face it – the government had no solutions to make the banks solvent, China’s premier is starting to say he’s worried about US debt – now would be the time for government to tell the banks – say you’re fine, we’ll figure out a way for you to be fine by the time you’ve got to report numbers.
Then, start pressuring the FABC to make the changes that need to be made to gloss over any solvency issues.
The way I see it, a little agreement like this wouldn’t be bad for the people in the government or the people in the banks, so it’s plausible.
Another doji day.
End of day matters the most.
CA
Just wanted to say thank you for your postings this week, I enjoy the technical aspects and the way you display/explain these.
This week I made some serious coin in index funds and I will say your postings were of great use to me.
From myself and family have a great weekend,,I’m all cash as of COB today.
Looking for the next opportunity.
What did EOD tell you, CA?
The end of the day told me that there is a greater than 50% chance for a downside reversal. I cut all my longs today and have kept the 10% short position that I’ve kept for over a week. To add more shorts, it depends on Monday’s pre-market/gap up or down. I wouldn’t know until Monday morning.
Mustard, you are very welcome.
CA, don’t want to get all gushy and shit but thanks as well for the thoughts/charts this week.
the pull backs are shallow..that is bullish… today is another frustrating day as the folks who are looking for a PB to get long don’t get it and the bears who are looking for a strong up move/exhaustion don’t get it either. SPY is coming into a swing point near 80..love to see it move towards the swing then trade sideways just under it for a few sessions. Break thru 80 0n 500M the the Feb highs will be open for testing.
one step at a time.
CA, just so I can learn what you are seeing, what revealed to you a greater than 50% chance of a reversal? I know volume was low, $NYSE-TICK was positive, but not really high like it has been. It felt like we were floating higher instead of being pushed by a tsunami of short covering.
The candles show reversal, e.g. doji, hammer, hanging men, shooting stars, etc. This is the second doji on the SPX ana other indices in the uptrend and it is met by quite a bit of resistance. After 4 consecutive up days, the chances of a large down day increase significantly.