Wow, that ride down ended quick. Really quick, at least temporarily. I would have gotten my face ripped off today if it weren’t for my program auto-buying FAS in increments. I realize that the market is becoming more volatile with multi-percentage days, just as it did back in September, but is that a good thing or a bad thing? This is why it’s so important to be flexible. It doesn’t matter what you think…if the market thinks otherwise.
What today showed me is that there are too many things, both visible and invisible, that are propping up this market. In addition, the news flow EOD today was incredibly positive and the anticipated decline will have to be placed on hold pending a possible gap up tomorrow in response to AAPL earnings and desperate bank executives buying up shares to prop up their own stocks. (Didn’t Pandit do this in November?). It’s a confidence move and it’s working, at least in the short-run.
As for price action, today’s gains nearly cancelled out yesterday’s losses and the volume is being maintained. Obviously, the bears could not follow through, suggesting that it’s not quite time for an Armageddon-style cliff jump. I would like to see a stick sandwich, thank you very much.
It is possible that the financials could become those ‘Spikers’ that I always talk about, giving me the opportunity tomorrow to recover the hit I took on the gains made yesterday. The way that works is that it’s not always a long opportunity, but a short one as well. I posted it here before, so I’m going to go around looking for it.
I think 99% of traders would not be able to withstand the joy ride that goes on in my portfolio. To give you an example, I was up (YTD) around +21% on Friday, +64% on Tuesday, and I now stand at +52%. The daily change is a reminder of an ex-girlfriend that PMSed on you – sometimes she loved you, sometimes she just wanted to kill you. But I can handle that.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings. Currently, I am hedged and willing to stick with a short bias IF the market action indicates further downside continuation, but I’m currently more inclined to preserve my ridiculous January gains. At this point, some financials look like they will spike higher and some do not, giving me mixed signals. Another thing to look for is if they lead the market right out of the gate tomorrow. This will all be looked into further.
I also see that the “haters” have re-emerged from their cave. lol, please. Make note that I never had a down month in over 2 years, Madoff-style. You can kindly suckle on that till it bursts on your face. Have a good night!
Tomorrow, I am being interviewed by/for the Washington Post Sunday Magazine, so […].
I will give a shout out to iBC.
I also have a follow up with National Public Radio later this week.
yo John,
you rocks so F the haters… I wish I had your performance record
Congrats on the interview.
Here’s what I’d like to see:
For a continuation in the short, I’d like to see most of yesterday’s market gains negated for a -2.5/3% down day (close).
For a reversal, I’d like to see a gap up in the morning, a gap fill, then a breakout higher on volume, and sustained momentum (open till close).
LOL.. those damn girlfriends! i miss em’ , hahaa…
just remember “NEVER HAVE KIDS.” … my life is over.
Addict, from the sounds of your account’s changes in net gains over a short period of time, it appears that you are, as Fly would put it, jumping in and out like a maniac.
If this is indeed what you are doing, why not sweep some gains off the table daily into a reserve stash on up days (casino style), while leaving the initial amounts you legged in with plus a portion of the gains on the table, to jump in and out of?
Great stuff. I actually chuckled while reading, a rather hard thing to accomplish.
Well done.
Hi John!
The last 2 times the RKH went up 16% in one day, it just kept on going up
http://zstock7.com/?p=385&disqus_reply=5458054#comment-5458054
I’d keep an eye on the FIB SPX 857–That’s where I’ll get back into shorts–
zee
BOTD – I’ve also heard “never get married”, a precursor to “never have kids”, I guess. Neither are within a man’s control from what I’ve seen so far.
Charlie – I’m actually a swing trader by nature, which contributed to the extreme volatility. I hate to jump in and out. I really do. My program takes care of the daytrades and I want nothing to do with it (for now).
Fly – Glad you enjoyed the cheap entertainment.
Hahaha, gotta love dealing with girlfriends when they’re PMSing…
Recommended area to get back into those iETFs? I have $52 on my radar, but if there is heavy strength into tomorrow, do you think we’ll see mid-40s? Thanks CA, you’re the man!
ZM
I don’t hate you. If I was a chick, I’d blow you and your money making skills.
Since I am not, a chick, I bow down to your fine art of accumulation-green.
Word.
have a good interview dude. remember, haters are good for you! it only shows that you’re skills are “unbelievable”. why are all the bad girls the fun ones? just sayin.
-g
CA, Congrats on your YTD gain. I am happy for you. I had been there before and it was fun.
Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing.
Good luck with the interviews.
Don’t forget to post the link to your interview. Good luck
mr. chart addict..HATERS are awesome. they remind you of how emotions can ruin your trading ,even your life!”!!
being the newbie i am, i follow you, GIO an Fly and i make more % than everyone i know.
fuck ´em!!
looking forward to get links about interviews.
side topic for interview:
Ken Lewis sucks hyena clit.
YUK! 🙁
could you make a post on some auto trading programs and strategies that you use… would love to get some insight from you on this…
Addict;
Thanks for the inspiration. Good luck on the Interview.
I see consolidation below the falling 5-day and the broken broadening formation. What say you.
BTW, kudos on 2 years of consistent gains!
i like your tab- some decent calls outs. you are young- keep learning and posting.
but regarding your statement-
“I think 99% of traders would not be able to withstand the joy ride that goes on in my portfolio. To give you an example, I was up (YTD) around +21% on Friday, +64% on Tuesday, and I now stand at +52%.”
this is has an air of gambler’s bravado. congrats on being up but w/ that type of volatility and how much you must be white-knucklin equity wise on every trade, just a matter of time before you zero out your account. Seen it a hundred times over my trading career w/ balls to the walls traders. I think 100% of good traders would not withstand it as it is suicidal.
size down and survive.
It is my style of high risk, but contained. I hedge often and usually get large gains in a span of a few days and don’t do much on other days (like today). I’ve actually cut down my positions significantly, holding mostly cash. When volatility comes back, like it did since a few days ago, the portfolio gets a little wacky.
Tropical – the program basically mades trades when I input certain levels of the SPX, DJIA, whatever and it hits that level. A good example was yesterday’s rally, where I inputted commands to add FAS every 5 pts up, in no more than 10 mins increments. I’m not a programming whiz so I paid someone a fuckload of money to help me with this. Usually captures +0.5 to +1% per day. I have no idea how to describe it, but I have discretionary strategies that I do post once in a while. They can be found in the ‘education blog posts’ section on my third-tier blog (weeklyta.blogspot.com).