Happy New Year!
This year was the year that defined “smart money” and “dumb money”. There was very little “in between”. This year was also a year full of the unexpected. Complete shockers. Who would have known that all of this stuff would happen?
The only way to trade was to expect the worst…even when we didn’t know how bad it could get. I remember pulling all-niters on Sundays in October, just because I knew something would happen! I’m sure many others had sleepless nights.
I am also sure that many people who have their money managed by a mutual fund or a shitty hedge fund may want to re-think where they invest. The biggest investment should be in yourself through education. You are the master of your money. I met my target of reading over 100 books this year. I read 113. What’s your target for 2009?
The fact is, I turned 24 just last month and I made north of 265%, my best year ever. I made a killing in CWST to cap off the year (just ask my students). I have an I.Q. of about 120, so I’m not a genius, I am just an average person. In fact, I failed Calculus I the first time I took it. The point is, anyone with the right mindset can become a successful trader – yes, even in the worst crisis of our generation.
I am glad that I finally stepped up to the plate to create this blog for the many readers who did want to learn about technical analysis, chart reading, and short-term trading. Going into 2009, I will make my best effort in presenting the technical picture of the market on a daily basis. I take pleasure in doing what I do best.
Below are the usual charts but also my predictions for 2009:
SPX 10-day
SPX 40-day
SPX 4-month
VIX 4-month
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The S&P 500 will re-test the 750 lows in the first half of 2009, and we will close below 700 by the end of 2009. This bear market will not end in 2009.
Crude oil will stay below $75/barrel for all of 2009.
Gold will break out above $1100/oz.
The VIX will hit 100 for the first time ever.
Posted unemployment will hit 10.5%. Total Unemployment (U-6) will hit 20%. The Employment Diffusion Index will hit the teens.
Commercial real estate values will drop 30-40%. Land development, office space, warehouses, shopping malls, hotels, and resorts will do the worst. Large multi-family properties will do the “best” because they will house all the folks who will lose their homes.
20% of retailers will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The bailout money will run out and the Fed/Treasury will request an additional package…and be denied. This debate will drag on for weeks and weeks.
Numerous local municipalities and/or states will go bankrupt. Many states will be unable to pay out full unemployment benefits.
The U.S. will be involved in another war.
A major terrorist attack, economic/financial, and/or political crisis will hit the U.S.
Martial law will be declared and FEMA’s Executive Orders 10990-11921 will be activated by the President. Military units will be deployed on the streets of America. The UN will continue to ship large numbers of military vehicles to the US mostly via Port of Beaumont, TX. There will be a massive build up of military equipment.
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Ok, maybe not the last one, but you get the idea. I don’t see how our bear market (in the worst crisis since the Great Depression) can last for only 2 years. The tech bear lasted for more than 2 years and that didn’t even involve a global credit crisis! Bulls should not get too comfortable in 2009. There will be disappointments.
I think this will once again be a trader’s market, rewarding those that are nimble. Join me in battle next year and let’s slay this motherfuckin’ dragon and make some serious money!
P.S. Have fun tonight and tomorrow and try not to get into a situation where YOU’LL need a bailout!
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2009 will be like Mad Max.
Cheery ……
A Happy 2009, indeedy!
Hilarity.
“The bailout money will run out and the Fed/Treasury will request an additional package…and be denied. This debate will drag on for weeks and weeks.”
I totally agree. I have not heard this prediction anywhere else.
As long as the Toecutter doesn’t show – not tonight, or any other.
C/A,
What are your top 5 books from the 113 you read?
Books are for fags.
Dont get too gay in 2009.
The VIX was a 100+ in the crash 1987. I think it got to 136.
If Commercial RE hits 30-40% drop then expect home values to drop south of 50%.
To be honest, US home real estate could hit 30% but, thoughts like that keep me up late in the evening even here in the 902.
Prospero Año Nuevo.
A major terrorist attack, economic/financial, and/or political crisis will hit the U.S.
Can we get more vague?
Number two has already hit, and three is a likely possibility and I don`t know how anyone could predict number one seriously.
My IQ is 155 and I made 58%. Go figure.
Federal Debt per capita on 12/31/68 was 1,730, where it had been since the end of WWII. On 12/31/2008 it was over 33,200.
The big story as far as the markets are concerned will be the downgrading of Treasury debt to single A, setting off a buyer’s strike by all foreigners and a drastic spike in domestic yields.
My IQ is like six bazillion and I made +3.4%, go figure.
My IQ is like 170 and i sell rags. Go figure.
I had to take Calc I three times. The 2nd time I got a “C-” (can’t get credits for below “C”). I got an “A” the 3rd time around.
Hard to say what the top 5 are, but here’s a few to start off:
1) Trade What You See
2) One Shot, One Kill Trading
3) Complete Guide to Building a Successful Trading Business
4) Millionaire Traders
5) Mastering the Trade
Cuervos – CRE’s cycle follows the RRE’s cycle and RRE will recover faster than CRE. In many parts of the country, RRE has already dropped 50% or more (from the peak). CRE is just getting started as retailers have to decide whether they will live or die this year.
“A major terrorist attack, economic/financial, and/or political crisis will hit the U.S.”
-I guess I meant something that’s worst than what we’ve went through so far.
Congrats on the impressive numbers … I was just curious as to how much money (estimated?) are you managing?
http://www.consensustraders.com/freeend.php?live=0
Hey chart can I email you some charts? I wanted your opinion on them and what not and that sort of thing. Thanks.
[email protected]
Hey chart, where can I get access to the ppt trading product you discussed in your most recent post?
Fly will launch it soon.