We are still forming narrow range days which suggests a continuation in the prevailing trend, which is “up”. As long as this pattern holds, it is bullish and a breakout is imminent in 1-3 days.
A string of narrow range days means that the buyers who bought since the breakout two days ago are still holding their positions. There is significant accumulation and money flow, even though it’s not physically being seen.
As long as we stay better than -1% down on the market, it remains in the control of the bulls, despite the fucking whipsawing and perceived weakness going on.
The VIX is being dropped like a motherfucker and the lower Bollinger band is widening. If the VIX get’s one more major down day, this could trigger band expansion that will follow a cascade of declines in the VIX. There is support at 45, so watch yourself.
Bears…you guys need to drop this fucker way below 900 on the SPX and break this bitch in half.
UPDATE II: We broke some key short-term levels as we broke to the downside of the triangle. We are failing the 50-day MA. If we close below it, then that’s pretty bearish, even though we’re still in the Range of Death. In this case, I’ll give the market one day to redeem itself. Certain stocks are showing significant breakdowns. The best bet is to be hedged. The close is the most important.
UPDATE: We are forming a symmetrical triangle. The market is obviously waiting for some type of catalyst to remove itself from this consolidation. Probably the auto bailout?Twitter
Nice post. Very insightful.
Thanks for the intraday update, these are always greatly appreciated!
What did the powers that be do to break the dollar weakness today?
Trading these markets makes me feel like my Bollinger Band is widening sometimes.
Good analysis and commentary.
How old did you say you were?
News is the White House is leaning toward an “orderly” bankruptcy for the automakers, no doubt Congress and the citizens want this also instead of a Bailout now and 2 months from now, etc. How would an “orderly BK” affect the markets vs a regular BK. In an orderly, jobs would still be lost thru temporary layoffs which may go for more than 1-3 months with a 1 month shut-down already a given. Any thoughts will be appreciated from anyone.
MF – on a technical level, the $USD is at the 50% retracement level. There’s some support there.
Alpha – just turned 24 last month, but I still look like I’m 18.
Buylo – Who knows. This is ‘uncharted’ territory.
Nice kid. Your technical analysis is AAA.
One 2 center to take or leave –lighten up on the “Fly vocab,” as it strikes me as a bit forced.
And besides, what would your dear mother think?
W regard to the dollar bounce here. Some of you know I use UUP as a proxy (though some people don’t like it, it’s served me well, so…) and I’ve got a two year chart with a low on St Paddy’s of this past year (3/17/08) and a double top high on both 10/27 and 11/21/08.*
That’s where I’ve run my fibs and yesterday we stopped dropped and rolled right on my “super strong” line of 61.8% retrace from the top. That was wholly expected. Today, we have shot off that line with some gusto, which was also relatively expected.
What was NOT expected (see note below) was the relative “meh” of the markets as a result, which indicates that no one is believing this $ rebound… YET.
* (If these respective dates (both low and double top high) do not strike a chord of recognition with you, then repair immediately to your nearest savings and loan for a 6 month CD conversion.)
this is hilarious, hat tip to wall street fighter
Jake, I can’t help it. I went to a military college.
West Point? Annapolis? Citadel? Air Force Academy? Have had friends and relatives at all of ’em.
I did not know cursing was a big thing there, but then, I picked up the bad language working in the securities industry, which is rife with guttermouths.
I guess my comment was that for your stuff, it’s not as additive to the context, but do what you want, no biggee.
Valley Forge Mil. College. You get your commission in 2-years instead of 4.
Can’t say a full sentence without cursing.
“Can’t say a full sentence without cursing.”
You just did. It’s really not so tough. Be a good role model for your (future?) kids.
Thanks for your contributions to this site.
Good stuff John.
I am thinking the same thing but was unable to post last night due to the brother of Jake Gint buying me egregious beers during our meeting yesterday evening.
I hope you left with your wallet and keys.
Did you compare Frylock beards?
Your a machine, appreciate the update.
Jake, yes, my was more 70s era bush style while his had the air of the lately popular “landing strip.”
I am here and I am relevant. I will piss all over your Christmas trees, and take your balls too.
My god you’re so contrarian I have to take it seriously son
lol. What’s so contrarian?
Billy Jack made bad acting and kung fu cool back when Chuck Norris was still holding Bruce Lee’s towel for him as the Dragon left the shower.
Gawd were those movies awful… I mean “awesome!”
i went to VFMA in 72-73 & 73-74 was in comp “C” and stayed in hamilton hall the main area @ the time.. was in high school..i was a regimental staff sargent and was in charge of the schloarship waiters in my junior year …never made it to my senior year due to a death in the family
In 2002-2004, ‘F’ company was the college. They started accepting girls in 2007 and nearly eliminated plebe system for them. I got up to headquarters commandant – a a 1st LT that did nothing. I wouldn’t trade my whole experience for anything. I think you probably went through the same stuff I went through in 2002-2004, no?
we had a plebe system then.. and no women..there was also a JC there …no i wouldnt trade my experience there for anything ..have to admit i do miss taps at night…
nice to meet you
they do send me post cards and letters once in awhile and the last 1 i think was to let me know i could leave them donations like stocks and bonds …do you run that area for them?
in fact my junior year is when they started wearing dress shirts and ties ..what a welcome that was after having to wear grays with collar clipped in the summer …but when i look back i loved it..
i had an economics class in 10th & 11th grade and the stock market was covered but not like im experiencing right now and i am new to this arena but doing ok
Nope. I haven’t visited the campus since 2004. Now that I think about it, I’ll stop by on one of my regular trips to NY.
The worst were the parades. Wearing wool jackets in the middle of summer carrying a 13 lb. rifle + parade gear.
We’d would have to sneak over to Cabrini or Villanova for the women and alcohol and come back by 5:30AM for morning mess.
SPX 10 day looks like a Bear Flag
sure does. It’s either that or an ascending triangle, but it’s starting to lean towards a bear flag.