What can you do during an intraday breakdown? Take the opposite side, hedge, or get into cash. I used my hot keyed SMN and SRS for the first time. You still have to keep your mind open because anything is possible (as always). Things happen that are beyond anyone’s control, so you just deal with them and move on. You either adapt or you’re dead.
Today’s pattern consisted of the smackdown from that 905 SPX resistance level (actually), but a final breakdown of the 885-890 SPX support level was unanticipated until it made it’s way down there, obviously. Once the market got to the 885-890 SPX level, the probabilities changed immediately. The risk/reward profile shifted. The beauty of technical analysis is that the patterns evolve every second of the day and you can stack the odds in your favor as the picture slowly forms.
Believe it or not, we’re still in the flag. A -195 point move on the Dow is nothing compared to some of the declines we get. If we break this channel, we’re done. The flag would fail entirely.
Looking at the volume, it shows that we’re still consolidating, so don’t get too excited about anything. If it was a genuine breakdown, it would have been on high volume.
875 SPX is the immediate support level and the 20-day MA at 860 SPX provides secondary support. Immediate resistance is at 885 SPX and everything above that.
Due to the uncertainty and the desire to protect profits, I chose to remain hedged @ 40% long/60% short. The only way I get heavy on one side is if a clear direction is achieved. Advice from my post yesterday: day trade, hedge (swing) or get into cash during consolidation.
UPDATE: Futures are down like mad. If this keeps up before the market opens, then we have “officially” broken, and a flurry of selling will ensue. I will look to short the hell out of this market at the most appropriate time.
SPX 1-day
SPX 3-day
SPX 5-day
SPX 10-day
SPX 6-month
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I am going to make an attempt to post more than once per day.
nice post kid.
TCA, so what or where would be a “most appropriate time” to short the hell out of this market? are you gonna try and post it? what level on the Spx should we watch? All Sto’s on major indexes are in the upper range and have turned over while Macd’s are still lagging. Wait for the gap down and bounce, then go short all in? You gonna wait for an announcement on GM? thanks for your advice.
Of course, during these critical days in anticipation of a B/D, if you post a couple times a day with your thoughts, it would help me (and others) a lot.
I’m going to be figuring all that shit out in the morning. It all depends on the size of the gap (if we gap down) and pre-market selling volume levels.
Um, a post would be too late I think, but I’ll be on Twitter tomorrow, for once.
Take your profits early this market is rigged.
Another reason to get up early tomorrow. I’ll be looking for you.
You should pay more attention to the longer term trend and the longer trend patterns. Hint: S&P $500. The rest is all bullshit in a BEAR market that will be the worst in history. Or in my case the BEST. I’m sleeping in.
I am a short-term trader, but a long-term bear.
pimpn arrows..nice stuff
Can you post your Twitter handle again?
Thanks.
Chart addict- I really appreciate your explanations, keep em’ coming
you make it easier for me thats for sure …im not on the flag right now ..struggled to get out of the funnel i put myself in the other day which i did unscaved
@WeeklyTA is his Twitter Handle!
http://twitter.com/WeeklyTA
there is a term used on this site alot “watch out for the head fake ” are they describing the head and sholders type chart or just some small up & down ticks ? not sure but i think i fell for one of those the other day and would like to see 1 on a chart if 1 appears again
Thanks, Tucker.
Nice Post TCA. I’m just waiting for Mssr. Doo Shay to pitch a molotov into the comments.
Regarding the market action, today was a perfect example of why I trade longer term. Looking at the intraday charts, it looks all exciting and stuff. Zoom out to the daily chart and what happens? Oh gee, another little bar added to the flag. Let’s hope we all bank some coin tomorrow.
Swing traders panic out of good positions, and/or jump prematurely into new positions while day traders get chopped up by the sudden price reversals.
10:30PM senate vote!
sorry not 10:30PM. They’re talking too much.
C-SPAN 2
this gap will automatically break the bear rally’s trend instantly.
what gap?
the major fucking gap down tomorrow morning!
-4.5 to -5%
longs are very screwed.
CA:
You might have to put the charts away for a day or two until Washington quits screwing around.. I think event driven mkrts really screw up ta – at least in the short term, thoughts???
tomorrow will be a grade A clown-fucking
Should I get short at the open or wait and see what happens?
no, that Washington shit is gonna go on like forever. You have to live with it. The TA will show where short-term targets will be.
stockcrack – that’s TBD right now. I have to see the pre-market action.
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