I stated that I was not convinced of this rally and I’m still not convinced. However, this doesn’t mean that the bears are at an all clear right now. Canceling out yesterday’s gains was Step 1. Step 2 is to break down below the 820 support level and today’s action has made that probability slightly higher.
In addition, the decline was sharp and immediate and broke the “higher highs-higher lows” channel also know as pattern #1 in yesterday’s post. An up day, let’s say anything that’s 2%+, will be worrisome because we will be forming a symmetrical triangle. If we do break (and cleanly close) 820, we are clear to retest the 750 low.
Expect a bounce in the morning, or even a nice sized gap up on a more favorable report. We’ll have to see if it holds up and if I commit my reserve capital to short the the rally. If we gap down 2%+, we’ll be testing several immediate support levels after breaking today’s pre-closing flag.
Who knows what will happen since the expectations for very nauseous labor market numbers are already being priced in. Economists are calling for a -300,000 in NF payrolls vs. -240,000 in October’s report. They are also calling for 6.7% vs. 6.5% unemployment in October. These numbers do not matter. What matters is what the Street expects. The Street is calling for between -300,000 and -500,000 and unemployment of at least 7%.
The important data is summarized in the Employment Diffusion Index. A sub-50 reading signals a recession (I’m not sure why it took NBER a year to figure that out). The readings are currently in the 30’s (37.6 p) and since the data was first collected, the lowest reading was 33.6 in April 2001. Will we surpass this level?
In other news, for my fellow NoVA, DC, and MD folks, looks like Chevy Chase Bank is getting acquired by Capital One (COF) for $520 million in cash and stock. Our friendly, local bank holds $11 billion in deposits and apparently COF will take a $1.75 billion charge for “potential losses in CC’s loan portfolio. Some people say COF may need to up that to $2.25 billion. What the heck does CC have in its portfolio? Goodness. Log into your online banking and you’ll get the “memo”.
In other, other news, Eliot Spitzer is now a financial commentator for Slate! If you feel like it, you can read his first article here. What’s funny is the fact that he’s joining Henry Blodget, the man banned from the securities industry and fined $4 million in 2001 due to Spitzer’s very own top cop work. Have fun you two.
Don’t forget to add me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/WeeklyTA
SPX 6-monthIf you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
How do you factor in headline risk/breaking economic news in your trading decisions?
Great work. Thank you.
What constitutes a “flag” Mr. Chart Addict? Thanks!
DaveisHigh – it’s tough, but I lean it towards the day’s pattern. Be hedged and/or have a nice reserve of buying power. The least riskiest thing to do is to stay in cash and trade the reaction.
The green lines in the first chart are flags. The pre-close one is still evolving into whatever it will be tomorrow.
I like the spike on VIX for an AM bounce, we got us a range ralph. Bulls and bears are humping the MA, want world to continue to exist
please lets just sell this off, no fucking rally off of this shit!
Yeah, I know the green means flag, but what does one need to see in a chart to call it a flag? Thanks
That bs xom rally is finally breaking.
That’s funny…no more hateful comments! Perhaps because I have recovered all of my gains. I know you 2 pussies joined me on the short wagon. Don’t even try to bullshit me.
scum bucket – yea, but you’ll make more off of the independents.
jig – ill explain that in today’s post
Keep up the great work, no hate here.
“We did not allow the financial system to collapse,” said Treasury bailout point man Neel Kashkari at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference. “That is the most direct, important information.”
Lay off the crackpipe kashkari
Diffusion Index is at 27.6 – very bad news!
just what we need, the lowest low, ever, since it started in 1991.
Do you shorts feel the pain?
TA does not work.
when a market can shrug off bad news … you have to consider what is driving that reaction. overhead resistance is not that strong at the 900 level IMO. Should we close out the day around where we are now 86-87 on the SPY that sets up an inside week on the chart …with no lower low. The Wyckoff spring is still in play with a thrust over 90 on the SPY on more than 500 million shares…. more covering would most likely be the result and the 1:1 ABCD projection would take the market to 975 ish… get that close to 100 and expect an intraday test of this level.
bear rally back to November 4/5 th is potentially setting up here.
TA does work in the business of probabilties… price, volume, and time…. they are the truths how you interprate the data points is what gives you an edge.
TA does not work.”
bluepickle — you obviously don’t know SHIT.
bluepickle, bro, I’m a little over 12% for the week. No complaints.
Diagonal line of resistance will not break. short it
TA does not work.
Try trading FX with that attitude and tell me how far you get.
“An up day, let’s say anything that’s 2%+, will be worrisome because we will be forming a symmetrical triangle.”
Now what? 🙂
fucking a. up 9%ish. whatever.
I am not a chart person but the larger downward sloping channel on XOM & SPY wasn’t broken today. It is the skitish bulls who should be nervous. As Merlin sez: “Poof! Your bullshit rally is over”.
If TA works, I would know more billionaire traders. But I don’t. Do you?
read Jack Schwagers market wizards…he interviews quite a few successful traders
Bluepickle, my covestor account currently tracks one strategy I trade that is 100% based on technical analysis. ROI since inception of May is 108%.
The Big Bamboo, another strategy that I paper trade here on my blog, even if the 3 current positions stop out, will be up over 10% since September 29th. It too is based 100% on TA. I could also show you the results of other strategies, based entirely on the technicals, that are up over 100% for the year.
You are making a very simple but very grave error, and that is your assumption that because traders fail, that TA fails. That is false. Traders fail, and they fail whether they trade fundamentals, momo, TA, value, etc.
TA works. Its just that not everyone can trade successfully.
Covestor shows that you are up 100% but I bet your account isn’t really up 100%, unless you’re putting 100% of your money into the trades. TA people don’t usually put 100% of their money into a trade. Am I right?
Once TA people starts putting 100% money into their trades, they get their balls sliced off and never to recover.
Bluepickle, as I was careful to note above, 108% is ROI. Look it up if you’re not sure how ROI is calculated differently from a total account return. Of course I do not put 100% of my money in a trade.
But all that is a red herring, desgined to distract from my response to your premise that “TA doesn’t work.”
As I have produced two profitable systems, both tracked and tested in real time, and based entirely on technical analysis, you sir, have been proven incorrect, in regards to your assertion that “TA dooesn’t work.”
And it doesn’t.
There’s this guy Tim Sykes and covestor says he is up 4000% but his account is actually up only 200%. Using him as a template, that means your account is only up 5%. Nothing to harp about. A monkey can throw a dart and probably get 5% just by investing at the right time.
Bluepickle, you’ve certainly come to the right place, as I love a good debate. But first, I need to know what I’m debating.
You see, I challenged your statement “TA does not work” with real-time results from 2 systems based entirely on TA.
However, you seem to want to debate Return on Investment.
That would be fine, except it would be boring. Therefore, I will not debate the meaning of ROI.
Instead, we will create an operational definition of “technical analysis working,” in order to address the topic we were debating, before your red herring.
I define technical analysis as being able to “work” (your words, not mine) if technical analysis of securities can create a trading system which has shown to be profitable, both in real time, and over years of tested history.
Based upon my definition, I win. I have presented data which meets the criteria of the operational definition.
Now, I’ll tell you what. You give an operational definition of “TA does not work.” Then, provide data which proves it.
Warren Buffett knows investing works and he puts money where his mouth is. If he had only $1 million, he would put it all in 1 or 2 stocks (because he believes overdiversification is bullshit and that people who overdiversify actually are very poor investors or non-investors at all). If TA actually works, why are TA technicians such chickens to put most of their money on their plays? It is because it doesn’t really work and deep inside most TA guys know it.
Bluepickle, you lose. So sorry, maybe we can debate again some time.
Have a good night.
Memo to bluepickle…
If a monkey throws a dart and hits you in the ass, is that 5%?
Janey: One of the best blogs I’ve seen. Well done. Thanks.
The Fly is God.
I would hate to debate with Wood. Unless it were about basketball.
What debate? TA just doesn’t work.
Gio, you’d win any debate about most sports…true! Although I was quite the athlete when I was younger, I just don’t keep up with all the teams now.
TA charts do look nice to look at, depending on how artistic the chartist is. But TA does not work. The only reason it seems to work is because randomness struck the chartist a lucky hand, or the right side of the coin. TA is 50-50. The only reason a chartist makes money is because he follows two very important rules that all good technical traders follow:
1) Have a stop loss.
2) Let your winners run, and cut your losses short.
When the chartist gets the right side of the coin, again due to randomness, he lets his winner run. And when he gets it wrong, again due to randomness, he cuts his loss quickly. That’s the only way a technician ever makes money.
If TA really works, there really isn’t a need for those 2 rules. It is actually by following those 2 rules, a technician makes money, and not by TA really.
Oh, btw, Woodshed, if TA really works, I reckon you would make more trades on your Covestor account. There’s always a “good chart” everyday somewhere. I don’t think it’s the charts really. I think you’re waiting for the right “sentiment” before you place your trades.
Bluepickle, you ready for round two?
Lets take a very very simple system, based on RSI2.
Here are the rules: Buy the index (Dow Jones, SPX, whatever) when RSI2 is less than 10, and sell the position when RSI2 is greater than 80 (on a closing basis).
This system, applied to the Dow Jones over the past 20 years, has a 76.08% win rate with a profit factor of 2.14 On the S&P500, it has a 76.68% win rate with a profit factor of 2.62
This system does not cut losses short (no stop loss), and it does not let winners run. It is the essence of a swing trading system.
Furthermore, this system disproves your idea of randomness, as it shows a consistent win rate of over 75%, across a variety of indices, over a large period of market history.
To recap: disproved you assertion that TA is 50/50 guess.
Disproved your assertion that TA must cut losers quickly in order to work.
Disproved your assertion that TA must let winners run in order to work.
Wow, taking a tiny subset of what is really a “sentiment” analysis (of overbought/oversold) isn’t going prove your point that TA works, because it doesn’t. You might as well make RSI2 greater than 150. That will certainly increase the “win rate”. lol
That’s like me saying that after a crash it’s always a good short term buy (and most frequently a good intermediate term and longer term buy) because the market will bounce.
That’s like me saying a morning gap down is frequently a good intraday buy (and it usually is).
It’s really sentiment, rather than TA.
Bluepickle, so sorry, you lose, again.
RSI is a standard tool of technical analysis. It is calculated from price alone. Hence, it is “technical analysis.”
I have provided for you a profitable system that will, when applied to any of a variety of indexes, produce profits with a win/loss ratio that is higher than can be expected from a normal, random distribution.
From your last comment, I deduce that you have a very limited understanding of TA (RSI2 greater than 150) and that you have limited capabilities, at best, of understanding the operations of the most simple of trading systems.
In order to re-focus the debate from where it should be focused, your erroneous assumptions about TA, and your limited knowledge on the subject, you know throw in Red Herring #2, which is that now your argument is not about TA, but about sentiment.
Nice debating you. Maybe we can do it again some time.
TA people know that TA doesn’t work. That’s why they keep on incorporating new stuff to their warchest. They’ve incorporated sentiment analysis. Pretty soon, they’ll take in crash analysis as TA. And eventually, they’ll probably take in morning fades as TA. Pretty much EVERYTHING will become the realm of Technical analysis some day. I guess eventually TA will work. lol
It is nice to see a debate not digress into name calling and immature bullshit. Good job you 2.
It seems obvious to me each of you are working with two different definitions of what exactly TA is. I agree with Wood that TA is anything than can be deducted from price and volume data alone. It is not just drawing lines on charts.
PickledBlue, J. Welles Wilder introduced RSI in 1978.
It is not a “new” tool for the technical analyst.
morning! lol, i just realized this isn’t even your blog.
I know. But since the Addict has gone AWOL, I have hijacked his comments section.
I think the current difference between Wood’s tab and Chart Addict is that Wood as shifted his tab to what may be better described as Quantitative TA (hey, maybe change your banner?) I am pretty sure Chart Addict used quantitative methods as well but they are generally not part of the information he presents here.
I agree that “some” of bluepickle’s assertions that certain elements of TA may be BS because they have no quantifiable edge but it is a stretch to try and make generalized comments about the entire discipline of using price and volume data alone.
The same can be said for fundamental data also. Some figures and ratios may provide an edge and some may not. It would be foolish however to make a general comment that fundamental analysis does not work just because some PEG ratio or whatever may not provide a quantifiable edge.
Seriously, where is this guy?
Is he bound and gagged somewhere by Mother Market?
Take a look of this chart:
Can you TA guys tell me what will happen on Monday to the stock?
I can tell you what will happen with my “sentiment” analysis. But can any TA guy say with a good degree of certainty what will happen?
Woodshed, you cannot just take a tiny subset of something to prove the big thing works. If so, I just realize that Psychiatry, Scientology, Winning the Lotto, and Beating the Casinos , they all “work”. (Someone will always benefit from psychiatry and scientology, someone will always win the lotto, and some people do beat the casinos and make tons of money).
You realize the burden of proving something does not work is almost impossible right? Proving a negative is very difficult as one single positive data point kills your assertion.
Have you read Black Swan? Science can very easily prove someone as cancer, it is almost impossible to prove someone does not. The same principle can be applied across the board and this is debate 101.
As long as your argument stays so broad and ill-defined, you can’t win this. Try tightening it up to something like, “support at a 50-day moving average provides no tradable edge” or something else a bit more specific.
Chart Addict wrote:
“bluepickle, bro, I’m a little over 12% for the week. No complaints”
I have a complaint. You are A FUC K1N LIAR because you went 175% short, most of it Monday afternoon at a market 7% LOWER than it is now.
I’d say you are out NINETY percent. Quit blowing smoke.
In regards to your chart. My answer would be that according to the methods I use, that chart provides no tradable edge and I would not be in the market (am not now). The trades you do not take are just as important as the ones you do.
market specualtion is based om probabilties. No system or discretionary trader is right 100% of the time, but as woodie has shown Edges can be achieved through application of a systematic approach to trading. His Edge is derived from the TA.
PRICE VOLUME & TIME are the only reliable truths that the average person can work with.
Let me ask you this question Blue Pickle…does history repeat itself? If you answer yes then we can say that people tend to repeat the mistakes of the past. Likewise in the stock market actions are repeated by people.
Where is the current market bubble? Look at the the TLT… I can tell you keep your eyse on this chart because it is going to breakdown. This is a parabolic rise that can be sustained.
Ahhh yes !
The old “TA works…TA doesn’t work” debate !
Never grow tired of that one.
It’s as old an argument as…which is better…
Dogs vs. Cats
PCs vs. Macs
Broccoli vs. Asparagus
Okay, that last one was a bit of a stretch… but, you get the idea.
The point is…the “TA Debate” is an age old argument that can not be won…by EITHER side. It’s like arguing about Religion…either you “believe” …or, you don’t !
You either “SEE IT”…or, you don’t !
Like a Rorschach Test…some people see a Butterfly…and some see a Bat ! LOL
Personally, I grew tired of trying to “convince” non-believers MANY years ago.
Yes…I confess…I AM A CHARTMONKEY !
The fact is…who cares ?!?
Woodshed, when you use the RSI2=80 on me, you are using an extremely tiny subset to try to prove a point. That is really no different from someone telling me that Winning the Lotto works and that everyone should participate, BECAUSE there is an absolute 100% certainty that someone will eventually win that lotto. (Certainly more than 76% probability likely to happen than the RSI=80!)
TA really does not work, at least to the degree most TA people claim that they work. When you trade so little on Covestor, I believe you know this to be true. I mean, why wouldn’t you trade more? There certainly are “good charts” everywhere almost everyday or every few days! What I believe you are waiting for because you trade so little is that you’re waiting for the perfect “sentiment” before placing your trade.
I’m pretty sure that any TA guy who tries to trade everyday or so with “Technical Analysis” (and there will always be lots of “good charts” everyday or so) will have his ass blown away to kingdom come. I think all TA guys know this as well,even though they won’t admit it.
To say that anything that can be put into math is TA is hogwash. Pretty much anything can be put into math, if that is our objective. Even some emotions, as they can be converted into math data on the other end of a lie detector. In trading, we can turn fear and greed into the $VIX by converting them into numbers. The VIX is really a “sentiment analysis”, but the truth is we don’t really need to create the $VIX into a graphical numerical representation so that the TA guys get to “own” it. Warren Buffet knows fear and greed without any graphical representation. So do most average people.
whatever makes you money, man. If your methods work for you – great work and keep it up. I am confident your concern for your fellow traders who choose to TA is genuine. I appreciate it, really, but many of use do just fine. Again, thank you for your concern and may you find wealth and market success regardless of your methods.
wow. I missed a great debate. I was drugged up.
1) You’re a fucking idiot. Those swing trades make up my swing segment of the portfolio, which was 50%. The other 50% is reserved for day trades/scalps.
2) Went short at the opening gap on Monday, not in afternoon. Big difference.
3) Leverage and hedges employed varied throughout the week. I have significant institutional leverage to hedge + long scalping all week, which is why my ass was saved this week.
4) Friday – switched out financial shorts in the morning with oil/gas shorts and maxed out on them until I covered in the afternoon + some long scalps into the close.
5) And now in cash. It wasn’t +12%, it was +8.7%ish.
6) Someone like you who doesn’t employ various strategies in these situations will be out 90% and will get face fucked.
7) This one is very important for you: When I write my post in the evening, my game plan could change the next morning, and it frequently does. I made over 1,500 trades in November so obviously my allocations become old news once the morning hits. Don’t follow my allocations in the previous day’s post, because they are constantly shifting all throughout the day.
Bottom line — my weekly, monthly, and yearly performance rapes your fucktarded results. Good game, sucker.
As for this great debate on TA, it’s the same as any other discipline. Fundamentals aren’t exactly perfect right now. Neither is TA, but they both work to a certain degree. In a market like this though, it’s tough to say that anything really works as well as it did, let’s say, 6 months ago. There’s also that WTF factor that can render any analysis pretty much useless. No claims are ever made that TA is perfect. Many days are 50/50. Some days have odds stacked on one side more than the other. I believe most day’s are 50/50, but you don’t trade those like a dumbass, unless you’re already within a trend continuation.
As for position sizing, some traders take on smaller positions that conform to their position sizing rule, whatever that may be. Every trader has a different strategy and style to deal with this. Some people don’t go all in because they are risk averse. Others do. Think about that.
“Can you TA guys tell me what will happen on Monday to the stock? I can tell you what will happen with my “sentiment” analysis.”
Ok Bluepickle, what will happen on Monday? Step up to the plate and tell us exactly what your sentiment research shows you. Put up or shut up. The fact that #1-your mind is closed and unwilling to even explore technical analysis, and #2 you think you know everything (ex. Monday’s results “for sure”), shows that you have much to learn in an uncertain world.
Bluepickle, this is quickly turning into a scenario where I feel as though I’m kicking a dog. You are not providing me with any challenging thoughts or any cutting edge information, and your debate skills leave a little to be desired.
Since I’ve proven that TA works, twice now, even as you have changed the criteria twice, there is no need to continue this argument. I have won. You cannot prove that TA does not work. Therefore, you lose.
As for my covestor account, I’ve detailed on my blog and in my recent interview why the system traded there has not made many trades since September. If you choose to read and find out, then good for you. I don’t have time to explain it here. I will tell you that since May, the system has made over 80 trades. You can decide whether that is a lot or a little.
Your understanding of TA is limited, at best, and your bias is making it impossible for you to approach this debate in a way which gives you a chance of success.
I hate to agree with someone as obnoxious as Truthseeker, but I question Mr. Chart Addict’s claim on WHEN he went short,
At 10:59 AM on Monday December 1, he posted
“I am fully short” and the DJI was down 400 at that time. Then Dec 1 at 6:20PM he wrote:
“My orders to my students/subscribers included: 1) 8:54PM – 100% cash and alerted that “I am expecting to short this market silly very soon” (exact words) , 2) 10:25AM – short 50% (I went 100% a few minutes later), and 3) 3:19PM – I was 150% short into the close before the sell off. These positions will be held for several days, so a daily gain means very little to me.”
So it appears to me Addict went PARTIALLY short 50% at 10:25 (Dow 8450) then 100% short
at say 10:30 (Dow 8420) then an additional 50% short to a total 150% short at 3:19 PM (Dow 8320) so his full short postion was at an average Dow of 8397.
Doesn’t jibe with what he said at 1:25 today
“2) Went short at the opening gap on Monday, not in afternoon. Big difference.”
With the Dow closing at 8643 Friday, he is about 250 Dow points BEHIND – a 3% plus loss.
This BB wants timely postings and the TRUTH.
My pre-closing e-mail gives an eod recap. Update e-mails give position/directional updates. Scale and hedge e-mails are what they are. You don’t know my system, so you gotta understand it first instead of try to piece it together.
My exact 3:19PM Pre-Closing e-mail’s wording for that was as follows:
“I am 150% short and have been throughout the day.”
Sorry but, I was short long before 3:19PM. Obviously I didn’t short exactly at the opening gap, but my initial positions were added at the open and I was accumulating positions since then.
I think Wood just took the Pickle to the Shed.
FYI: Over 100 years ago…
George Douglas Taylor wrote about…documented…and successfully traded what he called “The 3 Day Cycle” !
He contended (and I and many others agree) that there is a “rhythm” to the Markets. Prices tend to ebb and flow…and more often than not…they do this in a 3 to 5 day cycle.
Range EXPANSION…followed by…Range CONTRACTION !
The essence of Swing Trading !
Short-term momentum oscillators can act as a very effective visual representation of this regularly occurring “3 day cycle”. This is why an RSI(2) or, (my favorite) a 2 period Rate of Change…ROC(2)…seem to perform well as proxies for this cyclical price movement. They are merely mimicking what is a natural phenomenon in “The Market” ! imo
Bullish and Bearish Divergences of these 2 indicators can also be quite predictive in spotting turning points and short-term swing moves !
Add to that…some 1 or 2 day price patterns like…
Inside Days (IDs)…
Outside Days (ODs)…
Wide Range Days (WR4s & WR7s)…
Narrow Range Days (NR4s & NR7s)…
…and others and you can begin to make order out of seeming chaos !
Look, I been doing this “TA stuff” for a long time. In that time, I have fallen IN and OUT of love with many technical indicators…like a kid at the dance thinking that each was “prettier” than the next.
I am always amused when I see these young “know-it-alls”…on blogs…message boards…forums etc…post charts that are stacked with EVERY indicator they can possibly fit onto a chart. Lines here…Lines there ! I’m sure they think it makes them look like they know wtf they’re doing but…it tells me just the opposite.
I have been where they are and believe me…Less is More !
To the extent that technical indicators (“TA” if you will) can help me to “SEE” things in a different way and provide a graphical represention of the short term cyclical nature of price movement that Taylor, Rashke, Connors and others have documented…I’m a “believer” !
But…eventually, it ALL gets back to PRICE !
Specifically, PRICE ACTION !
More specifically, EXPANSION and CONTRACTION !
You don’t “swing trade” at a generational bottom where the market direction is a STRONG UP.
You go long and stay long.
Well, that’s one thing I agree with ChartAnalysis, that TA is mostly random 50-50 on most days. And only when the TA guy use sentiment indicators on certain days will TA seem to work.
We are going down in the morning on the SPY on monday and rally into the close. We will likely close green; if not, it will be darn near it. What do your charts say, TA guys?
Woodshed, you are still a very young lad and when you get a bit older you’ll change your mind. I agree with Alf44.
I doubt it. Woodshed is still too young, and naive.
But you must open your mind my internet friend. There are many ways to the truth.
I think the best advice I can offer is to use what you are comfortable/best at (this goes for everyone). It doesn’t matter what you use as long as it produces results. We are all different and specialize in different areas of trading. I can respect personal differences.
Bluepickle – which sentiment indicators do you use? Feel free to share some wisdom with us.
I agree with most of what you said, although I realize that some pretty smart guys might know things I don’t. I do agree with 100% conviction that money management is far more important then one’s ability to read a chart. Cut your losses and let your winners run is 90% of the game in my humble opinion. Unfortunately, it is a lesson I have yet to learn (FXP is a bitch!!!)
I share Chart Addict’s curiosity. I am not trying to put you on the spot, but could you help us all out and give us a few basic tips? I could always use some new ideas. Thanks for the great debate. It was worth the read.
Chart Addict, I agree, but if an old dog can’t learn new tricks he/she is a dead dog.
Reminds me of what someone recently said about reading many books and gaining just one or two things per book that could be helpful going forward and the rest being trashed. How can you argue with that? Anything that helps increase your odds is a good thing in my book.
Sorta like aiming at the moon with a 22 rifle, an inch down here could be many miles up there.
Learn, learn, learn! An inch now could be miles tomorrow.
Very wise, Grandpa.