iBankCoin
Joined Nov 2, 2015
33 Blog Posts

Trading $SPY in a downtrend

imagesI have absolutely no clue as to when crude will bottom, the market will quit worrying about crude and when this downdraft will end.

I have traded in and out of $SPY at least a dozen times this week, I am selling or buying to fill the gap, then doing the reverse, not very scientific but has worked like a champ.

I do not hold any positions overnight and am trading about 25% of my normal size.

We are making history as 400 point moves become the norm.

I am adding to positions in my longterm account, but very little.

Good luck and enjoy the holiday Monday.

This year has been interesting to say the least.

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Find Clarity Avoid Soros Gartman

Sorry for not writing, but I have to focus in these pinball markets, I will be short this market also.

CNBC and bloggers on Twitter are dragging out the same old tired crap.

My average holding period this week is shorter than a Gartman market call.

These are great times to make some huge scalp trades.

Its not a fucking selloff if you are in cash, I am TDs best customer right now, long term is lunch.

Look at the following $SPY “Flash Crash numbers:

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
31-Aug-15 198.11 199.13 197.01 197.67 163,298,800 195.48
28-Aug-15 198.50 199.84 197.92 199.28 160,414,400 197.08
27-Aug-15 197.02 199.42 195.21 199.27 274,143,900 197.07
26-Aug-15 192.08 194.79 188.37 194.46 339,257,000 192.31
25-Aug-15 195.43 195.45 186.92 187.27 369,833,100 185.20
24-Aug-15 187.49 197.48 182.40 189.50 507,244,300 187.40
21-Aug-15 201.73 203.94 197.52 197.83 346,588,500 195.64
20-Aug-15 206.51 208.29 203.90 203.97 194,327,900 201.71
19-Aug-15 209.09 210.01 207.35 208.32 172,946,000 206.02

It came back, go buy, fuck CNBC, watch Chicago Fire or NCIS LA

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Next Up Black Swan or Unicorn

I admit confusion yesterday, I follow $SPY and trade it, but the movement this month was confusing.

For some reason Twitter was just a lot of cynical drivel  yesterday morning.

You would think warm weather and the Holiday Season would brighten the mood, but doom and gloom seemed the order of the day.

I needed clarity, peace of mind and just some focus on the market.

I shut down my Twitter feed, walked freckles and BOOM, clarity.

Some times it pays to remove  the noise, slow down your heartbeat and think for yourself. If you are unable to think for yourself  (some investors can’t, like my brother), the market, especially this one, will eat you alive.

Memo to all: $SPY is still in a bull trend, playing from the long side increases the odds of winning, do not overthink this, ever.

My pal EB has taught me a lot about technicals, I invest on fundamentals but when stocks open up (or down) on a gap move, they just have to fill that gap.

Yesterday, sold my calls I held overnight, let the market fade and bought right back in on the fill.

I had a good day.

This leads us to Unicorns (pre IPO, Billion $ valuation) and Black Swans, in particular,the Turkey corollary to The Black Swan:

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to “avoid being the turkey” by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to “turn the Black Swans white”

The key to trading markets could not be explained any better.

The Black Swan is out there, it is just buried in a sea of noise, spin and agendas.

When you read an opinion ask yourself, ” what’s the agenda here, is the writer trying to educate or convince with this piece?” Is there a hidden agenda, missed the bull move, just lost a huge client, is a New York Giant fan?

What I am trying to say here is :

You are smarter than you give yourself credit, half of what is said on Twitter is tongue in cheek (the other half is written by the unemployed at Starbucks because they can’t afford wifi), trust your own analysis, and only with complete clarity, MAKE THE TRADE. selah.

I own longterm, $AMBA (makes money huge growth potential), $PAH (I trust the Fly and Ackerman on this one), $PSTG (Flash memory is the BOMB), $EOG (EagleFord THE shale play), $PANW ( They own cyber), $SGEN (ADC Technology, collaborations), $ADXS ( like $SGEN its about the delivery) and (to be published tomorrow).

 

Happy holidays! Futures smokin!

 

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Attention: Uptrend Confirmed

unless it changes today…

This whole “is the Fed going to raise rates” has created a curtain of uncertainty for a long while. We have been at these levels in the S&P recently and have been slammed back to earth every time.

That is just no fun.

I  like to make money when I hit a trend and leverage my way up, as opposed to sifting through the carnage of equities that can’t seem to find support at any level.

208.50 in a conundrum for me, its not a BTFD play, it feels “toppy”, but sure as the day is long, we could be seeing 215 shortly.

Its 9 am so I need to write this quickly.

I am going to open my position with 25% of my usual initial purchase.

I want to see if we test yesterdays highs.

I am not in any hurry, I may not do anything.

Hope that helped.

 

Raining in DC, making Chili, walking the dogs and playing Yo Yo Ma Christmas album.

Have a great day unless you are Martin Shkreli.

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When in Doubt Raise Cash

As I walked the canines early this brisk, late Fall morning in DC, I pondered what were the likely scenarios that would play out a 2 pm today.

I could nail nothing down, I do not trust Yellen, I do not trust ALGOs and I moved on to plan B.

Plan B for me is to take profits (or losses), raise cash and wait patiently till I find a bit of clarity in the mess that has been December.

I have eaten a lot of crow while SPY dropped 3.3% this month, but have made some good trades and find myself with a nice holding of SPY and PANW calls (maturing this week) that I am going to sell on the open and have a pile of ammunition to fund my next gambit.

Patience will always reward you.

Trading the open, watching the fur fly this afternoon.

Selah.

 

 

 

 

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Perma Bears Appear At Market Bottoms

I have to admit that I tend to think of perma bears as lepers. They feed on the misery of others and besides not knowing who there fathers were, they never take off the blinders, hence they are wrong 85% of the time (insert blind squirrel quote here). it is just day after day after day of spewing crap to make themselves feel better about the fact that they are losers.

Market Watch is the worst. They are the Robert Prechter  of Media. My God, all you hear from them are “death crosses” , “bubbles”, “Day of Days”, “$10 Oil”, etc.

I like hearing from the “Dark Side”, I truly do, but not the same broken record, same BS chart, same stupid cartoons day after day after day.

 

December has seen a 3.3% drop in the S&P that I did not see coming, I have had to trade my ass off (it is no fun working from a crappy open every fucking day!)

The point (yes there is one) is ignore insults (I block them), trade with the trend (it is still up) and remember, “its your money”.

 

I am long $SPY, $UCO and $PANW calls, I am buying back into ADXS today. Yellen is clueless, she is raising rates tomorrow.

Enjoy the holidays! Buy a Fitbit! They are great. Stole cartoon from Northy.

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Attention: Buy Advaxis

Here is the story:

Advaxis Inc. ADXS, -12.42% shares dropped in the extended session Monday after the biotech developer said the Food and Drug Administration issued a clinical hold against one of its drugs affecting four studies. Advaxis shares dropped 28% to $7.40 on heavy volume. The company said the FDA placed the clinical hold on its axalimogene filolisbac treatment studies after one patient died of her end-stage cervical cancer following treament. Advaxis said the FDA has requested information supporting the company’s claim that the medication did not cause the patient’s death.

This is old news, very old news. It is a very different market for biotechs now, I  prefer to look through the carnage and find the gem.

What they bring to the table:

Advaxis ADXS, -12.42% is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that has taken a different immunotherapeutic approach to try and destroy cancer cells. With its Listeria monocytogenes (Lm)-LLO immuno-oncology technology licensed from the University of Pennsylvania. Advaxis uses live attenuated bioengineered gram-positive bacteria to stimulate the immune system to selectively target tumor cells for elimination.

The company calls this a Trojan Horse approach because its genetically engineered bacteria trick the immune system into thinking cancer cells (which, as aforementioned, can evade the immune system) are bacterial infections. To wit, the antigen-presenting cells are recognized as foreign, generating an immune response. Advaxis heralds that its cancer immunotherapy is the only shown to actively suppress the key components in the tumor microenvironment – regulatory T cells (tregs) and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) – that protect the tumor from immunologic attack, although researchers, such as those at MD Anderson, are working on peptides that specifically target and destroy MDSCs as well.

They partner with  the likes of Merck and Asteroid Silica (AZN). Aduro BioTech, Inc. (ADRO) is using similar approaches and is seeing successes in clinical trials.

I own it.

 

Enjoy the holidays, looks like fall is coming to the east  coast finally

 

 

 

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Question- Have Shale Loans Doomed The Banks

As I write this the lemmings over at CNBC are telling us cheap gas will fuel consumer spending, do not own $RIG {no shit Sherlock) and rearranging chairs on the Titanic.

As everyone ignores the 900 lb gorilla in the room and conducts surveys on where crude is headed (survey says!), we may be revisiting “Too big To Fail ” very soon.

Shale wells are very expensive to complete, E&P companies drill from cash on hand but need to borrow to cover the fracking cost to complete these monsters.

From our friends at Bloomberg:

North American oil and gas producers have sold $61.5 billion in equity and debt since January 2016, paying more than $700 million in fees, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Half the money was raised to repay loans or restructure debt, the data show. “Being there for our clients in all market environments, particularly the tough ones, is something we feel very strongly about,” says Brian Marchiony, a JPMorgan spokesman. “During challenging periods, companies typically look to strengthen their balance sheets and increase liquidity, and we have helped many do just that.”

Lenders have been setting aside cash to cover potential energy losses. JPMorgan bolstered its reserves by $160 million in the third quarter. Bank of America’s at-risk loans increased 15 percent from a year ago as a result of the deteriorating finances of some of its oil and gas borrowers. Still, the oil bust has left banks relatively unscathed. Asked why lenders weren’t seeing more losses from energy defaults, BofA Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a conference call, “A lot of that risk is distributed out to investors.”

Citigroup, Bank of America, and JPMorgan were among the banks that courted fast-growing shale drillers in the hope that an initial loan would lead to investment banking business. Citigroup’s energy portfolio, including loans and unfunded commitments, swelled to $59.7 billion as of June 30, Bank of America’s to $47.3 billion, and JPMorgan’s to $43.6 billion, according to company filings. “They loan money at cheap rates, and the banks get the fees from the bond and share sales,” says Jason Wangler, an analyst with Wunderlich Securities. “When things are going well, it’s mutually beneficial. Now it’s a different conversation.”

While I am not saying that we will visit  the subprime debt crisis (subprime market was more than 600 billion), there have been a lot of greedy bankers out there and that shoe has yet to drop.

More to come on this story.

Beautiful weekend in DC, 65 degrees, no need for a new coat or turn on the heater.

TGIF! Enjoy the weekend.

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Beware: SPY has FANGs

SPY while trading in a narrow range lately, has still caused major whiplash for those trying to trade it to the long side. December 1st it finally broke resistance and rallied to 211 (uptrend confirmed) Draghi comment, plumenting crude and other exogenous variables drove it off a cliff to 205. Of course the next day it rallied back to get everyone even again.

This week we trade down down down and then great reversal yesterday morning from 206 to 208.65. I ma thinking textbook move we work to new highs.

 

But no , The FANG stocks go into a tailspin and croak SPY again, sending it to 204.75 and you have to say to yourself , when the fuck did SPY become a lottery ticket?

The key here is that FANG created this rally and FANG can kill it, put them on your screen and watch closely, where they go SPY will follow.

 

Enjoy the Day, DC is going to have spring like weather all weekend, retailers continue to get no help from mother nature.

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Attention: Some Analysts Are Morons – PSTG

and that is giving morons a bad name..

Yesterday Susquehanna analyst Medhi Hosseini trashed PSTG and offered up a $10 PT.

His concerns:

 

  • Stiffening competition from traditional incumbents, which is expected to result in lower ASP/GB, thereby limiting revenue opportunities while also exerting pressure on gross margins
  • Less favorable scale-out capability in Pure Storage’s technology relative to key competitor, EMC
  • Lack of exposure to new emerging growth regions like China and India.

Hoss historically has covered semiconductor manufacturing and solar, so maybe that is why he fucked up his analysis so badly.

First of all, incumbents can’t compete with FSTG when it comes to flash memory, since PSTG owns this segment.

In addition, if EMC is so fucking smart, then why are they giving up and selling to Michael Dell and Silver Partners.

I see future expansion into China & India as a tremendous growth opportunity, its not rocket science to open offices and hire sales staff there.

I am always happy to see some idiot issue garbage because it presents a buying opportunity, that otherwise would not exist.

I snapped up more at $16.25 (current price $17.55).

The point to all this is, never trust on faith anything some suit in a coat and ties says, do your own DD.

BTW, channel checks are crap, as a CFO in a prior life, I would get cold calls all the time from some first year grunt out of grad school, asking me a lot of questions I may or may not answer tongue in cheek. If Oracle is trying to fuck me on a deal, do you honestly think I am going to say anything positive about them or maybe I am sleeping with the rep from EMC, guess what spin I am putting there.

Checks are to be taken with large bags of salt.

 

Just in:

Altimeter Capital has disclosed a new position in Pure Storage Inc (NYSE:PSTG), a flash enterprise storage array company, with a market cap of $3.23 billion. The filing showed that Altimeter Capital holds 1.80 million Class A common Pure Storage shares; the passive stake is equal to 7.2% of the company’s stock.

Have a great day.

 

 

 

 

 

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