Affluenza Virus

An inefficient virus kills its host. A clever virus stays with it.
Joined Oct 27, 2011
78 Blog Posts

Affluenza Virus

Joined Oct 27, 2011
78 Blog Posts

Watchlist 3.11.13 | Until The End

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DJIA – Weekly chart. Broke out over previous highs of 14,198.10 and I am looking for higher prices before we correct. In my opinion, the SPX will see all time highs before the correction — However, it wouldn’t be unusual to see this market digest through time first. Still too man pundits in the media calling the top. The market is punishing them.

Money has been flowing out of the bonds for the better part of 2013. The TLT (weekly) is looking for an obvious test of the 200ema, if this current price fails. TLT got beat up pretty bad last week, a dead cat bounce is welcome and I’ll initiate a new short position. I am interested in selling TBT puts.

LONGS:

EBAY – Above average volume day on Friday. Nice hammer developed off this rising trend line. I started a 1/4 size position in APR $55 calls. Looking to add. Failure of the trend line is my stop.

AZO – Back on the list this week. I’ve been stalking this channel for months, if this turns out to be the bull flag to break us higher I am going long via APR calls. It will need room to work, that needs to be factored in your risk management plan.

AMZN – Nice looking bull flag on lighter volume this past week.

MA – Consolidating just over volume support of $525. Watching a test of the 8ema on the daily or a push over this descending trend line with volume to start a new long position for the next leg higher.

HAL – Looks ready for higher prices. Got back to oversold levels quickly on that last pull back. Following this ascending trend line out of this long term base.

BAX – Cleared this ascending triangle pattern and is consolidating above volume resistance. Setting up for a move higher.

NFLX – 60m chart – Consolidating under this descending trend line. Watching volume for a push higher. Daily chart has been working off overbought levels nicely while maintaining price.

Some cheaper names that look ready:

HLIT – Watch for volume and a break over 5.85 to clear this long term base.

RNDY – Consolidating under volume resistance. Textbook volume signature on the bull flag. This is what you want to see.

SHORTS:

FB – Humans are pattern seeking creatures, without even trying we try to connect the dots to everything we see and hear. This can work heavily in our favor but against us too. This chart is a head and shoulders pattern and a cup and handle at the same time. I started a short position on Friday at $27.85 without noticing the cup and handle in the same chart. I am giving it a $1 stop and may bail earlier if I feel like I am wrong.

TLT – Bonds got beat up last week so I am looking for a dead cat bounce to get into a short position via selling puts in the TBT to take advantage of this descending triangle.

FFIV – Bear flag on the daily. Sideways consolidation, Friday’s action couldn’t maintain the 8ema on the daily and selling volume is beginning to increase. Looking for a test of at least the lower volume support level on the chart.

NKE – Watching the selling volume near the volume support level and ascending trend line. Could be a low risk/reward short opportunity. Open gap below at $49.53.

We’ve had our fights, been black and blue, it’s true,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 3.4.13 | Wait

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SPX – I know that the inverted head & shoulders pattern is typically a bottoming pattern, but this is standing out to me. It would seem there are still too many top pickers for the market to roll over here. Weekly bias is bullish for me. Thinking we see a minimum of 1527 on the ES_F.

DX_F – Weekly chart. If this volume continues to come in — this trend line will be a non-issue. But, consider the time frame.

JNK – High yields may be at risk. Head and shoulders pattern on increased selling volume. May find support on the 200ema.

LONGS:

CMG – Likely going to make its move this week. Could clear this pennant either way. I have a bullish bias on it because of the overall negativity. However, I’ll be watching for a play on either side. Volume is key.

AAPL – Open gap to fill at $425.10. There is also some pretty serious volume support right here at 425. Depending on the price action & volume this week, the JUL 500 calls are starting to look pretty tempting. If Tim Cook is serious about returning 3b to investors over the next three years we may see signs of accumulation.

BAX – Nice ascending triangle pattern. Been consolidating at recent highs for 3 months+. Looks to be under accumulation.

BWA – Back on the list and I’m still in a starter position. Cup & Handle pattern is intact and I’m looking to add another 1/4 size clearing this descending channel.

RNDY – Credit to @paulwoll. Nice clean chart and large channel with second higher low put in Friday possibly. Like it clearing 6.10.

FOSL – Worked off overbought levels and maintained its price and this rising trend line. The island reversal two weeks ago was a bull trap so be cautious. This is going to need a lot of volume to get over resistance. Less than 100% won’t cut it.

MA – Watching this consolidation pattern near the recent highs. Would like to see it move higher, clearing volume resistance, preferably on over 1.2m shares.

VHC – I’m hesitant to put this one on the list because it’s being news driven with the lawsuits. They are going to be settling with AAPL with in roughly 40 days per the judge’s orders but thinking that may be the catalyst for this ascending triangle to play out. May take more time to play out. But, could easily test the highs. Don’t stick around if this pattern fails.

SHORTS:

PPG – Low risk/reward short opportunity. Stop is clearing volume resistance. First target is the gap fill.

FB – Possible head & shoulders playing out. If it confirms, I am looking for a target of $24.00-$24.50.

EMN – Descending triangle. Possible 8/50 MA bear cross this week. Increasing selling volume.

JNK – See chart above.

—————–
For what it’s worth, I adjusted the 20ema on my charts to the 21ema. I found it correlates better to the candles for the time being. We’ll see if it lasts.

Trying to conquer these fears I thought were gone,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 2.25.13 | Hysteria

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Watch list for the week of 2.25.13:

LONGS:

CMG – Bounced off the ascending trend line and maintained volume support while working off overbought levels. Digesting under this long term descending trend line. I’m watching for heavy volume to clear this trend line and bring it higher. Extreme negativity associated with this name could help a short squeeze.

AMGN – Cleared this descending trend line on Friday. Watching for volume on Monday to lead a possible continuation move higher.

EXPE – Bounced of the 50ema on the daily and this rising trend line. Long entry is clearing Friday’s highs.

XRX – Bull flag just under volume resistance. Above average volume on Friday. I am watching for a continuation of increasing volume and a clear of Friday’s highs (the flag).

AZO – Chart is setup beautifully for a break higher from this descending channel, unfortunately with EPS early next week the trade likely won’t have the time to work.

CSTR – Price action has been consolidating right around this volume resistance level. Watching this bull flag for a move to gap fill at $59.00.

Breakout watch: These charts could be ready first thing on Monday to scream higher, but most likely will need some time to digest under these breakout levels. Watching for extreme volume to bring these higher.

TXN – Watching $34.30 for my buy trigger.

TAP – Would like to see this long term volume resistance level cleared on over 3,000,000 shares.

SHORTS:

BBRY – Closed below this ascending trend line. A test of the 200ema is a likely target.

AMZN – Pennant formation. Could be played on a break either way with volume. Risk / Reward has favor to the down side. Watching.

MON – Heavy selling volume last week. Would like to see lighter volume digestion during the beginning of this week and a failure of the 50ema, eventually filling the gap at $96.11. Secondary target of $92.50.

I’m breaking out,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 2.19.13 | This is Gonna’ Hurt

1
262 views

The SPX’s closing prints this week: 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521 & 1519, the /DX climbed to a descending trend line on the daily chart. It’s hard to start new swing short positions with the relentless bid under the tape & it’s hard to start new long swing positions while the SPY is flirting with the top of the bollinger bands but if the /DX is rejected off that trend line the market has room to push higher. Next resistance after 1523.57 on the SPX is 1552.76. I have a bullish bias.

After running my scans this weekend the longs heavily outweighed the shorts. Roughly 6:1. That has me concerned but I’ve been concerned for a month now. Sticking with the trading plan as the market isn’t doing anything wrong.

Longs:

BWA – Cup and handle on the daily chart. Heavy volume traded last week, if it can clear this descending channel to the upside (handle) — my plan is to start scaling in and add the full position after clearing the breakout trigger of $78.45 with heavy volume.

V – Visa has been consolidating in this bull flag formation for a few weeks. Tested the 50ema on the daily last week and Friday traded well over 100% average daily volume and closed near the highs of the day. I’m already long with (1/4 position) MAR $160 calls and red, will add full position on a confirmation. First target is $160, then recent highs.

FFIV – Worked off overbought levels quickly after testing the top side of this long term base. Gap fill is at $99.05. It is in an ascending triangle pattern, will watch volume for a sign of buyers to step in around 100-102 area. First target is $106.80.

CSTR – Didn’t get the volume it needed on Thursday to breakout from this longer term technical base. Going to watch it this week to see if $54.25 and/or the 8ema on the daily chart is maintained. Would like to see the breakout happen on over 2.5m shares.

PII – Testing the rising trend line on this ascending triangle. Watching for a move over $86.54 for my entry. My gut is telling me this would be better played as a day trade. Volume and closing price on Tuesday will be important.

Shorts:

AAPL – Series of lower highs inside of the larger descending triangle. Looks weak but is being manipulated by news. Looks like it wants to test the recent low but the safest way to play this name at the moment (in either direction) is by selling premium to the speculators.

APA – Weekly chart – Large selling volume late last week and multiple tests of this descending trend line. Has support at $74.50ish, & would expect to see $67 if that level fails with large volume.

Rise against your fate,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 2.4.13 | It’ll Be A Long Time

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SPX is approaching this rising trend line resistance. Respect your trade plan.

Longs:

V – Continues to consolidate in this bull flag pattern. I am watching for a push higher and a test of the recent highs.

MA – Similar chart to V. Great looking consolidation pattern and could easily break higher and test recent highs.

LVLT – Watching this longer term bull flag and continued tests to break out of this resistance level. I started a small position on Friday and I will add to it clearing these levels with heavy volume.

EW – Nice volume on Friday and a close near the daily highs. Watching $95.00 level for a buy entry. Will need heavy volume.

MGM – Casinos have put in a good run in January, I’d like to see MGM clear $13.02+ on over 20m shares to get long and start the next leg higher.

ALXN – Noticed the base this has created and it’s testing volume resistance levels. Will need some good volume to breakout and based on the sellers last week I’m guessing this will be rejected. Watching.

Shorts:

LTD – Large selling volume last Thursday & Friday. Closed right on volume support & if selling volume continues I expect to to see a retest of $45.25-45.50.

PETM – Large selling volume and lower volume consolidation. Text book bear flag pattern. Moving averages are catching up to the price action and multiple support levels and a large open gap below. I’m watching for continued downside.

FIRE – Same trade plan as last week. I’m currently in this position already –got hit on overnight news but the plan is still intact. Open gap/support below.

Back and forth the leaders sway,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.28.13 | Walk

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The SPX closing over 1500 is nationwide news. Seeing quotes like this…

People are jumping on the bandwagon,” said Wayne Lin, a fund manager at Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. “The earnings are better. Economic figures are trending the right way. The legislators and the administration have gotten the message that they need to work together and investors are seeing that as a positive sign.”

…In articles like this, have me alarmed. One likely scenario I see playing out–as retail investors who were sitting in cash on the sidelines begin to have their faith restored in the US stock market and start chasing this 1500 breakout, the markets will continue to push up a bit more before the correction begins.

Exasperating the scenario even more, the financial twitter stream is top hunting & a continued slow and low volume walk higher will lure even more retail investor cash into the equation, making the rug pull even more fast & violent.

I already got burned once this month trying to top hunt the fiscal cliff rally and rather than attempt to do so again I will continue just trading the tape but will be extra vigilant on scanning for signs of the beginning of the correction. Stay nimble & don’t argue with your stops or trading plans. I believe there is still some great money to be made on the long side but when the risk/reward doesn’t make sense, be in a cash position.

This weeks list:

LONGS:

BIDU – Testing the ascending trend line and digesting on lighter volume. Price has been maintaining long term $108.00 support. Watching for a follow through during the first part of this week.

VHC – Ascending triangle pattern. Would like to see another 150-200% volume day to break it out over $35.50.

V – Low volume consolidation (flag) after a nice run on heavier volume. Watch for the buyers to step back in and push the price back to the highs $162.50+.

GGC – A merger between GGC & PPG have brought in the large volume into this name. I am watching this ascending triangle pattern for a possible push higher over the resistance.

EW – Ascending trend line has been maintained. I would like to see 300%+ average daily volume to clear resistance and make a run for the gap fill.

CSTR – This stock has been basing for 5 months. It is going to need a lot of volume to clear the recent highs. My buy trigger will be $54.25 if Friday’s volume stick is the beginning of accumulation.

SHORTS:

CVS – Looks like a rounded topping pattern and the selling is increasing. If it rolls over this week, a test of the previous base is a likely target ($50.00 to $50.25).

FIRE – Still watching this name from last week. As long as I see no evidence of accumulation, I will start to scale into it a new short position at a test of the descending trend line.

TIF – This one is on the short list because the volume to the downside has heavily outnumbered the volume to the upside, if it reverses and pushes higher over the descending trend line it could be a long position. Volume would have to be beyond significant.

NEM – Selling volume starting to increase at this long term support level. Next major support area I see below is $37.55.

I’m running through the fire,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.22.13 | Hats Off To The Bulls

538 views

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

SPX – Trading inside of this rising channel and riding up the 8ema since the fiscal cliff news. The majority consensus seems to be expecting the pullback now before we see 1500. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it keep grinding higher & frustrating the most. I am no longer in my SPY put position nor have a bias or preference. My hat goes off to the bulls. I have a solid list of stocks I’ll be watching this week–both long & short.

Watching:

AAPL – I don’t have a position in AAPL and I won’t take a new swing before earnings. However, if I was forced to play it would be to the long side. This weekly chart tested the 100ema and put in an interesting candle with above average volume. With the relentless selling and downside pressure, I believe a poor earnings report has been somewhat priced in.

GS – Financial sector has been outperforming and could use a healthy a rest. The descending trend line on this weekly chart will come into play this week. Notice the volume has been increasing as it approaches. Watch for a low volume digestion period. $155+ could happen fast.

LONGS:

BIDU – Textbook bull flag put in last week on lighter volume & is just below resistance. Watch for volume to increase early this week and a push higher over this descending trend line. Measured move is a minimum of $120.00.

KORS – It’s been honoring the moving averages for the last two weeks and trading inside of a larger ascending triangle pattern. Friday closed just under a larger volume resistance shelf. A push higher with above average volume could bring us the near term highs.

EW – Similar pattern to KORS; larger ascending triangle pattern. Volume resistance is a few cents shy of $95.00. Would like to see 200%+ daily average volume on price clearing $95.00+.

GGC – First time looking at this name–Friday’s hammer on above average volume compared to the previous two selling days caught my eye. Tested fairly close to the 50% retracement too. If Friday’s candle is honored I’ll be interested.

SHORTS:

FIRE – Multiple tests of this support level and a series of lower highs make it likely for this gap to be filled sooner rather than later. Last weeks action looks a bit like a bear flag as well with the consolidation period on lighter volume. The target is gap fill at $36.38.

CMG – I was short CMG last week when it got hit on news of lowered guidance. I covered that day and it has regained the entire range. Now it is right back at that descending trend line where I took the initial trade at. I am watching volume for an indication of a breakout or a failure. EPS is coming up soon and I likely won’t have a position unless I decide to sell premium.

DLTR – I have shorted DLTR a few times successfully recently inside the long term descending triangle. I don’t want to start a position in the middle of the range. I would like to a retest of the 50ema on the daily chart or even the descending trend line.

TIF – This is on the short list as a hunch that it won’t get the volume necessary in order to clear this long term descending trend line. Of course, if I notice it is under accumulation I will likely reverse my thought process and get long. As always, I will wait for the volume to confirm the move for me.

Hats off to the bull, keep giving all.
What ya’ say we make amends,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.14.13 | Let’s Get Outta’ Here

379 views

It’s no secret than I am net short and looking for a pullback (and wrong so far). This market is over extended and while we did have a short digestion period, it wasn’t as healthy as I would have liked to see.

Each day this market grinds higher and I have continued to press my shorts. I will throw in the towel when we get a cash close over 1475.00. May come as fast as Monday.

On Friday, BusinessInsider.com published this chart and article. I think it’s interesting and eventually going to help return some of the volatility to the market that we’ve been missing so much, but immediately, it’s just one more reason for me to feel that a short term pullback is due. On a very short term scale I can feel the sense of bullish euphoria. Non market participants are starting to talk and ask me personally about what they should be investing in since the fiscal cliff rally. At the same time we have Reuters reporting, “the hedge fund industry saw its biggest month of withdrawals in 3 years this past December.

Long term, I am still leaning with a bullish bias. I am in the new all time highs in 2013 camp. However, I am positioned and looking for at least a 2% correction. If I am wrong I will flatten those shorts and reevaluate as I see necessary.

The watch list is going to be short and sweet because I am not looking to start any new positions while we’re in this range. After running some scans, these are the ones that caught my eye:

LONGS:

XOM – Cleared this descending trend line last week. Clearing $89.71 should bring us the gap fill of $90.73.

HBI – Still working inside this longer term ascending triangle pattern. There is volume resistance/support at $36.30.

NFLX – $101.79 gap was closed on Friday. If we can get above it with volume that level will become support. Like this name long term. DIS validated the brand & it could see $140-$150 by 2014.

SHORTS:

AAPL – The chart is still broken. The rips are being violently sold. There is no support being offered to maintain these current prices.

KO – Steady downtrend for a few months with an open gap below. Don’t chase here, wait for a retest of the moving averages.

CNX – Lost volume support and this ascending trend line on 200%+ average daily volume on Friday. First target is recent support at $28.50.

We’re gonna’ go where we have no worries,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.7.13 | Trigger Finger Itch

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SPX is over extended and ripping through resistance levels. It needs to digest, whether that’s through time or price. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a quick run to 1474.51 before pulling back but time will tell. I am mostly cash here because I sold just about everything into last weeks rip stick, not including some longer term holds. I have the trigger finger itch to start buying up some names again but it’s poor risk/reward to start buying new long positions at these levels. Overall, I am a bit bearish, the market needs to digest last weeks run. The SPX has violated the upper bollinger bands and as a personal rule I don’t start new full sized long swing positions until the price comes back in.

IWM (weekly chart) – closed at resistance and could use a rest here as well.

I’m going to start with the short list because I’m expect a pull back this week:

AAPL (weekly chart) – Inside a descending triangle and testing volume support. To me, volume looks to be suggesting lower prices.

DLTR – Inside a long term descending triangle. Recent lower highs and overbought levels. First target is recent lows. Second target is $36.00.

POT – Friday’s close is testing this descending trend line. My bearish bias on the SPX leads me to believe this test will be fail. However, if it clears this level with heavy volume it could be a profitable long position.

CMG – Similar pattern and risk/reward as POT mentioned above. CMG has a much heavier short float.

LONGS:

SAVE – It has been a long time since this name has been relevant to me but the chart is screaming at me now. Closed above volume resistance and the 200ema and we have a gap to close in the low 19s. It has ‘that look.’

S (weekly) – Basing nicely here on lighter volume. Closed above volume resistance on Friday. Keep this one on your watch list.

AMZN – Would like to see this one come retest the 8ema before starting long. I am thinking there will be a quick test of recent highs before coming back in one last time before pushing to new all time highs. There is also an argument for a possible cup and handle here on the daily (not a pretty one).

HBI – Buy trigger is clearing Friday’s highs. I like the increased volume activity during the last three sessions.

CNX – Bounced off this rising trend line last week and closed over volume resistance with increasing daily volume. Would like to see it ride the 8ema to the top side of the pennant.

XOM – Would like to see above average volume in this name to push it over this descending trend line.

EXPR – Noticed this tight consolidation pattern on lighter volume. Friday’s close held above volume resistance and it looks ‘poised’ to push higher.

The hand that feeds keeps slappin’ at the mouth,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 12.26.12 | Bitter Taste

206 views

It’s going to be a low volume week and I am not anticipating any exciting action. As much as I would like to believe that a fiscal cliff deal will be made before the end of the year — I am not too optimistic. This mini flash crash has left a bitter taste in my mouth and my overall bullishness on the market has abated. I still can’t bring myself to get net short on this tape — too much negativity. On a positive note the dollar looks to be a bit bearish here and could test lower levels, assuming Washington doesn’t screw this up. As always, be nimble.

Dollar weekly chart. I see a head and shoulder pattern.

I have a short list of stocks I’m watching:

BLK – Testing long term resistance at $209.80. It had a strong run up to this level during the last two months so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pull back here and build a possible cup and handle. The second chart is the weekly chart. Watch for accumulation if the resistance level is cleared.

LEA – Lear Corp tested a long term descending trend line last week. I would like to see a consolidation pattern below short term highs before exploding higher on heavy volume and offer a bullish technical trend change.

TWC – This one has been trading above gap resistance and been riding up the daily 8ema. My on going target is still gap fill at $98.17.

AVB – Cleared this long term descending trend line on above average volume. It is now in a consolidation pattern below volume resistance of $137-137.50. It could use a few days to allow the short term moving averages to catch up to price action. It also broke out of the cloud on the ichimoku chart.

Trade safe this week. Happy Holidays.

I have escaped the bitter taste,
@AffluenzaVirus

Affluenza Virus

An inefficient virus kills its host. A clever virus stays with it.
Joined Oct 27, 2011
78 Blog Posts

Affluenza Virus

Joined Oct 27, 2011
78 Blog Posts

Watchlist 3.11.13 | Until The End

301 views

DJIA – Weekly chart. Broke out over previous highs of 14,198.10 and I am looking for higher prices before we correct. In my opinion, the SPX will see all time highs before the correction — However, it wouldn’t be unusual to see this market digest through time first. Still too man pundits in the media calling the top. The market is punishing them.

Money has been flowing out of the bonds for the better part of 2013. The TLT (weekly) is looking for an obvious test of the 200ema, if this current price fails. TLT got beat up pretty bad last week, a dead cat bounce is welcome and I’ll initiate a new short position. I am interested in selling TBT puts.

LONGS:

EBAY – Above average volume day on Friday. Nice hammer developed off this rising trend line. I started a 1/4 size position in APR $55 calls. Looking to add. Failure of the trend line is my stop.

AZO – Back on the list this week. I’ve been stalking this channel for months, if this turns out to be the bull flag to break us higher I am going long via APR calls. It will need room to work, that needs to be factored in your risk management plan.

AMZN – Nice looking bull flag on lighter volume this past week.

MA – Consolidating just over volume support of $525. Watching a test of the 8ema on the daily or a push over this descending trend line with volume to start a new long position for the next leg higher.

HAL – Looks ready for higher prices. Got back to oversold levels quickly on that last pull back. Following this ascending trend line out of this long term base.

BAX – Cleared this ascending triangle pattern and is consolidating above volume resistance. Setting up for a move higher.

NFLX – 60m chart – Consolidating under this descending trend line. Watching volume for a push higher. Daily chart has been working off overbought levels nicely while maintaining price.

Some cheaper names that look ready:

HLIT – Watch for volume and a break over 5.85 to clear this long term base.

RNDY – Consolidating under volume resistance. Textbook volume signature on the bull flag. This is what you want to see.

SHORTS:

FB – Humans are pattern seeking creatures, without even trying we try to connect the dots to everything we see and hear. This can work heavily in our favor but against us too. This chart is a head and shoulders pattern and a cup and handle at the same time. I started a short position on Friday at $27.85 without noticing the cup and handle in the same chart. I am giving it a $1 stop and may bail earlier if I feel like I am wrong.

TLT – Bonds got beat up last week so I am looking for a dead cat bounce to get into a short position via selling puts in the TBT to take advantage of this descending triangle.

FFIV – Bear flag on the daily. Sideways consolidation, Friday’s action couldn’t maintain the 8ema on the daily and selling volume is beginning to increase. Looking for a test of at least the lower volume support level on the chart.

NKE – Watching the selling volume near the volume support level and ascending trend line. Could be a low risk/reward short opportunity. Open gap below at $49.53.

We’ve had our fights, been black and blue, it’s true,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 3.4.13 | Wait

326 views

SPX – I know that the inverted head & shoulders pattern is typically a bottoming pattern, but this is standing out to me. It would seem there are still too many top pickers for the market to roll over here. Weekly bias is bullish for me. Thinking we see a minimum of 1527 on the ES_F.

DX_F – Weekly chart. If this volume continues to come in — this trend line will be a non-issue. But, consider the time frame.

JNK – High yields may be at risk. Head and shoulders pattern on increased selling volume. May find support on the 200ema.

LONGS:

CMG – Likely going to make its move this week. Could clear this pennant either way. I have a bullish bias on it because of the overall negativity. However, I’ll be watching for a play on either side. Volume is key.

AAPL – Open gap to fill at $425.10. There is also some pretty serious volume support right here at 425. Depending on the price action & volume this week, the JUL 500 calls are starting to look pretty tempting. If Tim Cook is serious about returning 3b to investors over the next three years we may see signs of accumulation.

BAX – Nice ascending triangle pattern. Been consolidating at recent highs for 3 months+. Looks to be under accumulation.

BWA – Back on the list and I’m still in a starter position. Cup & Handle pattern is intact and I’m looking to add another 1/4 size clearing this descending channel.

RNDY – Credit to @paulwoll. Nice clean chart and large channel with second higher low put in Friday possibly. Like it clearing 6.10.

FOSL – Worked off overbought levels and maintained its price and this rising trend line. The island reversal two weeks ago was a bull trap so be cautious. This is going to need a lot of volume to get over resistance. Less than 100% won’t cut it.

MA – Watching this consolidation pattern near the recent highs. Would like to see it move higher, clearing volume resistance, preferably on over 1.2m shares.

VHC – I’m hesitant to put this one on the list because it’s being news driven with the lawsuits. They are going to be settling with AAPL with in roughly 40 days per the judge’s orders but thinking that may be the catalyst for this ascending triangle to play out. May take more time to play out. But, could easily test the highs. Don’t stick around if this pattern fails.

SHORTS:

PPG – Low risk/reward short opportunity. Stop is clearing volume resistance. First target is the gap fill.

FB – Possible head & shoulders playing out. If it confirms, I am looking for a target of $24.00-$24.50.

EMN – Descending triangle. Possible 8/50 MA bear cross this week. Increasing selling volume.

JNK – See chart above.

—————–
For what it’s worth, I adjusted the 20ema on my charts to the 21ema. I found it correlates better to the candles for the time being. We’ll see if it lasts.

Trying to conquer these fears I thought were gone,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 2.25.13 | Hysteria

508 views

Watch list for the week of 2.25.13:

LONGS:

CMG – Bounced off the ascending trend line and maintained volume support while working off overbought levels. Digesting under this long term descending trend line. I’m watching for heavy volume to clear this trend line and bring it higher. Extreme negativity associated with this name could help a short squeeze.

AMGN – Cleared this descending trend line on Friday. Watching for volume on Monday to lead a possible continuation move higher.

EXPE – Bounced of the 50ema on the daily and this rising trend line. Long entry is clearing Friday’s highs.

XRX – Bull flag just under volume resistance. Above average volume on Friday. I am watching for a continuation of increasing volume and a clear of Friday’s highs (the flag).

AZO – Chart is setup beautifully for a break higher from this descending channel, unfortunately with EPS early next week the trade likely won’t have the time to work.

CSTR – Price action has been consolidating right around this volume resistance level. Watching this bull flag for a move to gap fill at $59.00.

Breakout watch: These charts could be ready first thing on Monday to scream higher, but most likely will need some time to digest under these breakout levels. Watching for extreme volume to bring these higher.

TXN – Watching $34.30 for my buy trigger.

TAP – Would like to see this long term volume resistance level cleared on over 3,000,000 shares.

SHORTS:

BBRY – Closed below this ascending trend line. A test of the 200ema is a likely target.

AMZN – Pennant formation. Could be played on a break either way with volume. Risk / Reward has favor to the down side. Watching.

MON – Heavy selling volume last week. Would like to see lighter volume digestion during the beginning of this week and a failure of the 50ema, eventually filling the gap at $96.11. Secondary target of $92.50.

I’m breaking out,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 2.19.13 | This is Gonna’ Hurt

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The SPX’s closing prints this week: 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521 & 1519, the /DX climbed to a descending trend line on the daily chart. It’s hard to start new swing short positions with the relentless bid under the tape & it’s hard to start new long swing positions while the SPY is flirting with the top of the bollinger bands but if the /DX is rejected off that trend line the market has room to push higher. Next resistance after 1523.57 on the SPX is 1552.76. I have a bullish bias.

After running my scans this weekend the longs heavily outweighed the shorts. Roughly 6:1. That has me concerned but I’ve been concerned for a month now. Sticking with the trading plan as the market isn’t doing anything wrong.

Longs:

BWA – Cup and handle on the daily chart. Heavy volume traded last week, if it can clear this descending channel to the upside (handle) — my plan is to start scaling in and add the full position after clearing the breakout trigger of $78.45 with heavy volume.

V – Visa has been consolidating in this bull flag formation for a few weeks. Tested the 50ema on the daily last week and Friday traded well over 100% average daily volume and closed near the highs of the day. I’m already long with (1/4 position) MAR $160 calls and red, will add full position on a confirmation. First target is $160, then recent highs.

FFIV – Worked off overbought levels quickly after testing the top side of this long term base. Gap fill is at $99.05. It is in an ascending triangle pattern, will watch volume for a sign of buyers to step in around 100-102 area. First target is $106.80.

CSTR – Didn’t get the volume it needed on Thursday to breakout from this longer term technical base. Going to watch it this week to see if $54.25 and/or the 8ema on the daily chart is maintained. Would like to see the breakout happen on over 2.5m shares.

PII – Testing the rising trend line on this ascending triangle. Watching for a move over $86.54 for my entry. My gut is telling me this would be better played as a day trade. Volume and closing price on Tuesday will be important.

Shorts:

AAPL – Series of lower highs inside of the larger descending triangle. Looks weak but is being manipulated by news. Looks like it wants to test the recent low but the safest way to play this name at the moment (in either direction) is by selling premium to the speculators.

APA – Weekly chart – Large selling volume late last week and multiple tests of this descending trend line. Has support at $74.50ish, & would expect to see $67 if that level fails with large volume.

Rise against your fate,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 2.4.13 | It’ll Be A Long Time

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SPX is approaching this rising trend line resistance. Respect your trade plan.

Longs:

V – Continues to consolidate in this bull flag pattern. I am watching for a push higher and a test of the recent highs.

MA – Similar chart to V. Great looking consolidation pattern and could easily break higher and test recent highs.

LVLT – Watching this longer term bull flag and continued tests to break out of this resistance level. I started a small position on Friday and I will add to it clearing these levels with heavy volume.

EW – Nice volume on Friday and a close near the daily highs. Watching $95.00 level for a buy entry. Will need heavy volume.

MGM – Casinos have put in a good run in January, I’d like to see MGM clear $13.02+ on over 20m shares to get long and start the next leg higher.

ALXN – Noticed the base this has created and it’s testing volume resistance levels. Will need some good volume to breakout and based on the sellers last week I’m guessing this will be rejected. Watching.

Shorts:

LTD – Large selling volume last Thursday & Friday. Closed right on volume support & if selling volume continues I expect to to see a retest of $45.25-45.50.

PETM – Large selling volume and lower volume consolidation. Text book bear flag pattern. Moving averages are catching up to the price action and multiple support levels and a large open gap below. I’m watching for continued downside.

FIRE – Same trade plan as last week. I’m currently in this position already –got hit on overnight news but the plan is still intact. Open gap/support below.

Back and forth the leaders sway,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.28.13 | Walk

251 views

The SPX closing over 1500 is nationwide news. Seeing quotes like this…

People are jumping on the bandwagon,” said Wayne Lin, a fund manager at Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. “The earnings are better. Economic figures are trending the right way. The legislators and the administration have gotten the message that they need to work together and investors are seeing that as a positive sign.”

…In articles like this, have me alarmed. One likely scenario I see playing out–as retail investors who were sitting in cash on the sidelines begin to have their faith restored in the US stock market and start chasing this 1500 breakout, the markets will continue to push up a bit more before the correction begins.

Exasperating the scenario even more, the financial twitter stream is top hunting & a continued slow and low volume walk higher will lure even more retail investor cash into the equation, making the rug pull even more fast & violent.

I already got burned once this month trying to top hunt the fiscal cliff rally and rather than attempt to do so again I will continue just trading the tape but will be extra vigilant on scanning for signs of the beginning of the correction. Stay nimble & don’t argue with your stops or trading plans. I believe there is still some great money to be made on the long side but when the risk/reward doesn’t make sense, be in a cash position.

This weeks list:

LONGS:

BIDU – Testing the ascending trend line and digesting on lighter volume. Price has been maintaining long term $108.00 support. Watching for a follow through during the first part of this week.

VHC – Ascending triangle pattern. Would like to see another 150-200% volume day to break it out over $35.50.

V – Low volume consolidation (flag) after a nice run on heavier volume. Watch for the buyers to step back in and push the price back to the highs $162.50+.

GGC – A merger between GGC & PPG have brought in the large volume into this name. I am watching this ascending triangle pattern for a possible push higher over the resistance.

EW – Ascending trend line has been maintained. I would like to see 300%+ average daily volume to clear resistance and make a run for the gap fill.

CSTR – This stock has been basing for 5 months. It is going to need a lot of volume to clear the recent highs. My buy trigger will be $54.25 if Friday’s volume stick is the beginning of accumulation.

SHORTS:

CVS – Looks like a rounded topping pattern and the selling is increasing. If it rolls over this week, a test of the previous base is a likely target ($50.00 to $50.25).

FIRE – Still watching this name from last week. As long as I see no evidence of accumulation, I will start to scale into it a new short position at a test of the descending trend line.

TIF – This one is on the short list because the volume to the downside has heavily outnumbered the volume to the upside, if it reverses and pushes higher over the descending trend line it could be a long position. Volume would have to be beyond significant.

NEM – Selling volume starting to increase at this long term support level. Next major support area I see below is $37.55.

I’m running through the fire,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.22.13 | Hats Off To The Bulls

538 views

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

SPX – Trading inside of this rising channel and riding up the 8ema since the fiscal cliff news. The majority consensus seems to be expecting the pullback now before we see 1500. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it keep grinding higher & frustrating the most. I am no longer in my SPY put position nor have a bias or preference. My hat goes off to the bulls. I have a solid list of stocks I’ll be watching this week–both long & short.

Watching:

AAPL – I don’t have a position in AAPL and I won’t take a new swing before earnings. However, if I was forced to play it would be to the long side. This weekly chart tested the 100ema and put in an interesting candle with above average volume. With the relentless selling and downside pressure, I believe a poor earnings report has been somewhat priced in.

GS – Financial sector has been outperforming and could use a healthy a rest. The descending trend line on this weekly chart will come into play this week. Notice the volume has been increasing as it approaches. Watch for a low volume digestion period. $155+ could happen fast.

LONGS:

BIDU – Textbook bull flag put in last week on lighter volume & is just below resistance. Watch for volume to increase early this week and a push higher over this descending trend line. Measured move is a minimum of $120.00.

KORS – It’s been honoring the moving averages for the last two weeks and trading inside of a larger ascending triangle pattern. Friday closed just under a larger volume resistance shelf. A push higher with above average volume could bring us the near term highs.

EW – Similar pattern to KORS; larger ascending triangle pattern. Volume resistance is a few cents shy of $95.00. Would like to see 200%+ daily average volume on price clearing $95.00+.

GGC – First time looking at this name–Friday’s hammer on above average volume compared to the previous two selling days caught my eye. Tested fairly close to the 50% retracement too. If Friday’s candle is honored I’ll be interested.

SHORTS:

FIRE – Multiple tests of this support level and a series of lower highs make it likely for this gap to be filled sooner rather than later. Last weeks action looks a bit like a bear flag as well with the consolidation period on lighter volume. The target is gap fill at $36.38.

CMG – I was short CMG last week when it got hit on news of lowered guidance. I covered that day and it has regained the entire range. Now it is right back at that descending trend line where I took the initial trade at. I am watching volume for an indication of a breakout or a failure. EPS is coming up soon and I likely won’t have a position unless I decide to sell premium.

DLTR – I have shorted DLTR a few times successfully recently inside the long term descending triangle. I don’t want to start a position in the middle of the range. I would like to a retest of the 50ema on the daily chart or even the descending trend line.

TIF – This is on the short list as a hunch that it won’t get the volume necessary in order to clear this long term descending trend line. Of course, if I notice it is under accumulation I will likely reverse my thought process and get long. As always, I will wait for the volume to confirm the move for me.

Hats off to the bull, keep giving all.
What ya’ say we make amends,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.14.13 | Let’s Get Outta’ Here

379 views

It’s no secret than I am net short and looking for a pullback (and wrong so far). This market is over extended and while we did have a short digestion period, it wasn’t as healthy as I would have liked to see.

Each day this market grinds higher and I have continued to press my shorts. I will throw in the towel when we get a cash close over 1475.00. May come as fast as Monday.

On Friday, BusinessInsider.com published this chart and article. I think it’s interesting and eventually going to help return some of the volatility to the market that we’ve been missing so much, but immediately, it’s just one more reason for me to feel that a short term pullback is due. On a very short term scale I can feel the sense of bullish euphoria. Non market participants are starting to talk and ask me personally about what they should be investing in since the fiscal cliff rally. At the same time we have Reuters reporting, “the hedge fund industry saw its biggest month of withdrawals in 3 years this past December.

Long term, I am still leaning with a bullish bias. I am in the new all time highs in 2013 camp. However, I am positioned and looking for at least a 2% correction. If I am wrong I will flatten those shorts and reevaluate as I see necessary.

The watch list is going to be short and sweet because I am not looking to start any new positions while we’re in this range. After running some scans, these are the ones that caught my eye:

LONGS:

XOM – Cleared this descending trend line last week. Clearing $89.71 should bring us the gap fill of $90.73.

HBI – Still working inside this longer term ascending triangle pattern. There is volume resistance/support at $36.30.

NFLX – $101.79 gap was closed on Friday. If we can get above it with volume that level will become support. Like this name long term. DIS validated the brand & it could see $140-$150 by 2014.

SHORTS:

AAPL – The chart is still broken. The rips are being violently sold. There is no support being offered to maintain these current prices.

KO – Steady downtrend for a few months with an open gap below. Don’t chase here, wait for a retest of the moving averages.

CNX – Lost volume support and this ascending trend line on 200%+ average daily volume on Friday. First target is recent support at $28.50.

We’re gonna’ go where we have no worries,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.7.13 | Trigger Finger Itch

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SPX is over extended and ripping through resistance levels. It needs to digest, whether that’s through time or price. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a quick run to 1474.51 before pulling back but time will tell. I am mostly cash here because I sold just about everything into last weeks rip stick, not including some longer term holds. I have the trigger finger itch to start buying up some names again but it’s poor risk/reward to start buying new long positions at these levels. Overall, I am a bit bearish, the market needs to digest last weeks run. The SPX has violated the upper bollinger bands and as a personal rule I don’t start new full sized long swing positions until the price comes back in.

IWM (weekly chart) – closed at resistance and could use a rest here as well.

I’m going to start with the short list because I’m expect a pull back this week:

AAPL (weekly chart) – Inside a descending triangle and testing volume support. To me, volume looks to be suggesting lower prices.

DLTR – Inside a long term descending triangle. Recent lower highs and overbought levels. First target is recent lows. Second target is $36.00.

POT – Friday’s close is testing this descending trend line. My bearish bias on the SPX leads me to believe this test will be fail. However, if it clears this level with heavy volume it could be a profitable long position.

CMG – Similar pattern and risk/reward as POT mentioned above. CMG has a much heavier short float.

LONGS:

SAVE – It has been a long time since this name has been relevant to me but the chart is screaming at me now. Closed above volume resistance and the 200ema and we have a gap to close in the low 19s. It has ‘that look.’

S (weekly) – Basing nicely here on lighter volume. Closed above volume resistance on Friday. Keep this one on your watch list.

AMZN – Would like to see this one come retest the 8ema before starting long. I am thinking there will be a quick test of recent highs before coming back in one last time before pushing to new all time highs. There is also an argument for a possible cup and handle here on the daily (not a pretty one).

HBI – Buy trigger is clearing Friday’s highs. I like the increased volume activity during the last three sessions.

CNX – Bounced off this rising trend line last week and closed over volume resistance with increasing daily volume. Would like to see it ride the 8ema to the top side of the pennant.

XOM – Would like to see above average volume in this name to push it over this descending trend line.

EXPR – Noticed this tight consolidation pattern on lighter volume. Friday’s close held above volume resistance and it looks ‘poised’ to push higher.

The hand that feeds keeps slappin’ at the mouth,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 12.26.12 | Bitter Taste

206 views

It’s going to be a low volume week and I am not anticipating any exciting action. As much as I would like to believe that a fiscal cliff deal will be made before the end of the year — I am not too optimistic. This mini flash crash has left a bitter taste in my mouth and my overall bullishness on the market has abated. I still can’t bring myself to get net short on this tape — too much negativity. On a positive note the dollar looks to be a bit bearish here and could test lower levels, assuming Washington doesn’t screw this up. As always, be nimble.

Dollar weekly chart. I see a head and shoulder pattern.

I have a short list of stocks I’m watching:

BLK – Testing long term resistance at $209.80. It had a strong run up to this level during the last two months so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pull back here and build a possible cup and handle. The second chart is the weekly chart. Watch for accumulation if the resistance level is cleared.

LEA – Lear Corp tested a long term descending trend line last week. I would like to see a consolidation pattern below short term highs before exploding higher on heavy volume and offer a bullish technical trend change.

TWC – This one has been trading above gap resistance and been riding up the daily 8ema. My on going target is still gap fill at $98.17.

AVB – Cleared this long term descending trend line on above average volume. It is now in a consolidation pattern below volume resistance of $137-137.50. It could use a few days to allow the short term moving averages to catch up to price action. It also broke out of the cloud on the ichimoku chart.

Trade safe this week. Happy Holidays.

I have escaped the bitter taste,
@AffluenzaVirus

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