I’m amazed at the resiliency of the bull in the SP500.

While it was slightly down for the day, the bull possessed strength that the bear couldn’t overcome to make the market drop like a stone.

I bought back $AMRN for the bounce when price started to move up from the low of the day.

Price climbed back up to stay green after creating a lower low bar for the day.  Let’s see if the momentum will continue tomorrow on the upside.

Next, I bought $INO for the bounce.

Price looked like it was bouncing so I bought despite the fact that $INO will be doing a reverse split by end of the week on a 4 to 1 basis.

I think by doing a reverse split, management cover themselves by setting up a base level for the price to react to the coming Phase 2 result. If Phase 2 result is positive, the high price from the reverse split will allow fund managers to buy immediately to join the bandwagon.  And if Phase 2 result is less than expected, price still has a long way before it will drop below $1.00.  Thus, I’m betting on the side of positive result.

Due to corrections from $LRAD and $DMRC, the losses more than offset the gains from $BIOS.  My port gave back 0.50% today.  YTD gain is now 3.5%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, BIOS, KGJI, SEED, INO, AMRN and 9% cash.

From my other account:

$NVLX is holding well so far.

Price is only a stone throw from breaking out of the downtrend line to head back up.

My 2 cents.

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Let me start off this post with a quote from Calvin Coolidge:

Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

In hindsight, we know the market has marched on ahead in an upward, albeit in a wavy manner, direction in the year of 2013; nevertheless, my personal path to achieving stock market gain was an uphill battle fraught with potholes and slippery slopes.

Potholes I fell into in 2013:

• $ECTY- large losses (company filing bankruptcy)
• $ETRM- medium losses (failed Phase III study)

Slippery slopes I encountered:

• $AMRN- large losses (you know the story)
• $USU- large losses (I bailed before the reverse split and the ensuing gigantic rally afterward)
• $SZYM- medium losses (whipsawed from over-trading in downtrend market)
• $APRI- medium losses (holding against a downtrend and gave up before the recovering year-end rally)
• $NCTY- medium losses (mistake in betting big on a thinly traded and small float stock)

Despite the multiple losses I endured from the above trades, they were all managed losses.  In other words, I didn’t let these losses get out of control by averaging down.  While some of the losses were large, it was because I made the initial large bet to begin with and not as a result of averaging down   While I had suffered mental frustration with these controlled losses (who wouldn’t?), I did not wallow in self-pity, I got back up and moved on.  I am persistence because I know I can get my money back as long as I’ve my capital intact.  It is a matter of being perseverance in searching for the stocks that will give me back the money and more.

Sidebar: It is extremely important that you manage your losses according to sound money management principle.  If I had not managed my losses, I would not be able to recover no matter how persistence I could be.  The rule of trading world is that you MUST protect your capital to fight another day.  My trading style is focused on finding the hi-beta stocks that will give me the jackpot I’m looking for; thus, I know I’ve to take some hits from time-to-time.   While this has been my endeavor, I’m still developing and evolving as a trader; therefore, trading mistakes were made (as in $SZYM, $APRI, and $NCTY) and I’m learning from them.

Having covered my losses, let’s go over my wins!

• $KNDI- very large gain
• $INO- very large gain
• $LRAD- large gain
• $GALE- medium gain
• $GOGO- medium gain
• $NUGT- medium gain
• $CERS- medium gain
• $CLIR- medium gain

My biggest win in 2013 was $INO. Upon hearing about $INO, I did my research but was initially skeptical since stock price had been trading below below $1.00 for first half of the year. But when price started to climb to near dollar, I began to take notice of a possible breakout.  Then the proliferation of positive preclinical news came into the foreground.  With price advancing over $1, I began to average UP.  Not only that, I kept averaging up on each bounce up after a brief consolidation; by the time price reached $3, I was sitting on such huge gain it would be foolish not to lock in profit especially when I knew the preclinical trials result was still a long way to human trials.  In other words, the price went up too far too fast.  I exited about 80% of my position at an average price of $2.75 and the rest in mid-to-low $2.xx.  It was a very profitable trade.

$KNDI was a trade I found after I got burned by $ECTY.   Despite the punch on the stomach (figure-of-speech), I refused to give up my beliefs in the potential of EV.  $TSLA has pretty much convinced me that EV does have a place in our society after my few failed attempts to short $TSLA with put option.  My shorting $TSLA was based on simple assumption that the market cap had gone too far ahead of the fundamental; however, when I saw the actual Tesla Model S in the showroom and the elegant and simple design of the electric motor compared to the complicated ICE (internal combustion engine); I was sold on the concept of EV.

Tesla high-end car succeeds because Elon Musk knows that the top 10% of the wealth will buy the car if it looks nice and function perfectly.  And when Consumer Reports magazine gave the Tesla Model S the highest score in its Ratings: 99 out of 100 back in July, I knew then that EV is here to stay.

However, the only problem is that if $TSLA, the only EV with a much longer driving range on a single charge than its cheaper competition, already captured the top 10% wealth; who will buy the cheaper EV models with shorter range?  Hence my belief that $ECTY was the key solution to expanding the EV market for cheaper EV models.  Little did I know that $ECTY was so badly managed, despite its being the company chosen by US Department of Energy to spearhead the charging station project, that I promptly lost 80+% of my investment in a single day after $ECTY made an announcement of its major issues.

Still very much believing in the EV potential and that $ECTY mismanagement did not equal to EV failure, I kept on researching for the next EV stock to speculate.

Then I found $KNDI.

What tickle me the most about $KNDI is that it is not selling directly to the consumer which I know will not work because of the range anxiety.  Without the proliferation of charging station everywhere, it will be difficult for an accelerated growth in consumer buying.  But $KNDI is offering a solution that automatically solves the range anxiety issue; not only that it also solves the charging station issue as well.  By embracing the concepts of car-to-go and zipcar except that the EV must be returned to the garages strategically located at multiple fixed locations for recharging purposes, $KNDI found an optimal solution to the range anxiety and battery dilemma in the EV market.  What is more important is that consumers do not need to buy the car but simply rent them for a very low price that is cheaper than hiring a taxi.

At the time when I found $KNDI, price was trading around $5 after it came back down from a quick run to $8.  Because of the secondary offering after the spike to $8, the stock was mercilessly attacked by the short.  On top of that, the uncertainty from having to  wait for the new China EV subsidies that had yet to be announced only added fuel to the short.

Hmmm….

Instead of going away like most everyone because of the history of bad blood from some stock scams from China, I began to see this as an opportunity to buy when it was still cheap.  After reading all the due diligence performed by other $KNDI believers and compared them to those who short, my own analysis prompted me to start building a position in $KNDI.  While I was building my position, $KNDI was trading in a tight range b/w $4.50 and $5.50.  Plenty of patience was required on my part.

The good thing about having a large position on a stock is that you tend to watch its trading pattern very closely on a daily basis.  And when price crossed back over the 79 & 89 MA lines to the upside, I could sense a coming rally.  Thus, I decided to buy a boatload of Dec $7.50 call to supplement my stock position.  As luck would have it, right after I had bought the options, the stock became a runner the very next day.  When price reached $9 and started to reverse direction, I had the good sense to lock in profit on 70% of my option trades.  The rest I gave back to the market when it expired worthless.  Having exited most of my option trades, I decided to reduce my stock position as well to lock in profit.  My swing trade mentality was in full-swing.

From then on, I bought and sold $KNDI to supplement my core position without success for two months.  In fact, my realized gain was slowly leaking thru the multiple whip-saws from my trading in-and-out of the trading position. And then the news of Geely announcing to the public that it would have the EV version of the London black taxi available in five years.  That was all I needed to hear to double-down on $KNDI.  After the Geely announcement, I knew it was time to stop swing trading $KNDI.  Why did I feel that way?  It was the subtle message from Geely that it is committing to the EV market; otherwise, why made such a bold statement?  With $KNDI being in a 50/50 joint venture with Geely for the sole purpose of building EV cars, $KNDI has a LOT to gain from this announcement.

Again, I was correct in my assessment; thanks to my double-down on $KNDI, my gain was quite phenomenon in the last week in 2013.

Sidebar: Performing daily homework in researching for potential runner is the discipline that keeps me going forward.  And I’m not just talking about picking up stock ’cause so and so says he/she is buying.  I need to analyze the fundamental and decide if the stock has the “story” as well as a chart pattern to support it before I venture in.  If you are willing to do YOUR own analysis and homework on a stock regardless where you hear it from, the stock will become YOUR own pick; not someone pick.  And you will trade this stock according to YOUR trading strategy; not someone’s.  The benefit of doing YOUR own analysis is that you will LEARN from your mistake and grow as a trader. Otherwise, you will never grow as a trader if all you do is to follow someone pick.

My purpose of writing about my thought process in my $KNDI and $INO trades is to emphasize the importance of doing your own research.  By doing your own research, you will get a much better sense of the stock and how it is trading.  If you are the more risk-taking type, you may even augment your position size like I’ve done with $INO and $KNDI.

$GOGO came to mind as another perfect example.  After The Fly made the call on $GOGO, I began to research the stock and like what I saw.  Then I started to build up my position based on my analysis of the chart-pattern.  In other words, I began to trade $GOGO irrespective of what The Fly was doing with his $GOGO position.  If you do your own homework, you make the stock your own and you only have yourself to blame if the stock doesn’t perform.  This is the ONLY way you can learn and grow as a trader.

To conclude my post, despite having my portfolio down in the middle of the 2013 due to my losses mentioned above, I was able to climb back out of the hole and ended the year in a very positive note.

Due to my evolving as a trader, I am now focused on shepherding my current portfolio of nine hi-beta stocks for the potential run-up in 2014.  Holding on to a winning position for as long as I can is the only way to make the big bucks.  I like to see all nine of my stocks, if possible, to run the way $LNG and $CLDX ran in 2013 (both of these stocks I used to own but got out way too early!)

Current holdings:

$KNDI – I believe $KNDI will dominate in China with its business model of selling to the car-sharing garages.

$LRAD – I believe its newly minted mass-notification technology will dominate the replacement of the obsolete bullhorn speaker notification system worldwide.

$KGJI- I believe that the new wealth in China will increase consumers’ crave for 24K gold products that $KGJI will have blow-out quarter-to-quarter revenues that price has no choice but to keep going up.

$CERS- I believe that FDA will approve $CERS blood purification system.  Why?  ’cause they are selling them to Europe already without any issues.

$INO- I am “betting” that $INO has finally tweaked its synthetic DNA enough to work in human.

$GALE- I believe its Astral drug will sell well quarter after quarter.  I’m also “betting” that its NeuVax breast cancer treatment will succeed.

$XONE- I believe its 3D manufacturing machines will become dominant in the manufacturing sector.

$AMRN- I believe FDA will meet $AMRN half-way on its Vascepa label expansion.

$TINY- I believe that its portfolio of private investment in multiple nanotechnology companies will take fruition in 2014.

I wish everyone a happy and prosperous New Year!

My 2 cents.

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And the market continued to reach new height to make way for 2014…

Meanwhile, $INO has another fantastic run-up day.  Compared to the last two run-up in the 2nd half of 2013, this run-up is based entirely on expectation instead of news released from the company.  The thing about expectation is that you never know when the run is over.  In other words, we never know where the price point for this renewed expectation.

From the daily chart, you can see that the 79 & 89 MA lines are in an uptrend.  Not only that, these two magical lines are able to support the corrections from the last two run-ups.  For a biotech company to test the previous highs of the last two run-up within a 5-month periods, I’ve to say that $INO has a lot of believers as well as investors who want to see $INO succeeds for the benefits of the human race.  Make no mistake, if the trial result in mid-2014 proves positive, the implication is a disruptive bio-technology that will surely revolutionize vaccines technology.  Not to mention the positive expectation on the multiple pipelines $INO is currently working on.

Can $INO synthetic vaccines work this time when so many others have failed?  Will they finally get it right this time to merit a positive trial result?  Could past failures point $INO to the right path in making synthesis vaccines to work in human?  We will soon find out by mid-2014 with their cervical cancer trial result.  Previous run-up had been based on fantastic news from positive preclinical results on mice.  And a jump from mice to human will require a lot of “tweaking” in the labs to make it works on human.  I’m crossing my finger that the $INO has finally tweaked its synthesis vaccine to the point that it will work on our human body.

Having said that, $INO is still a speculative bet.  A bet that if won, a blast-off in price will result; and if failed, be prepared to say good-bye to your investment.  And that is why I’m investing only a mid-size position in comparing to my previous big bet on the first run back in August.  With a mid-size position, I no longer need to watch it like a hawk and be quick on the trigger.  I can just let it ride amidst the volatility.

Take a look at the monthly chart above, price has already climbed above all MA lines. Even the 89 MA is now beginning to point up.  It looks like price is getting ready to make history next year, the year of 2014.

For all intent and purpose, all the stocks in my portfolio are chosen for its potential explosive run-up in 2014.

$KNDI did well today by heading higher albeit only 2.63%.  As long as price can continue its momentum to the upside, I’m happy.

I like the fact that the 5 MA line is now pointing back up.  There is a lot of potential for $KNDI in 2014.  All we need to hear next year is the completion of more and more car-sharing garages in multiple cities in China.  I truly believe the business model of selling the EV to car-sharing garages as opposed to consumers directly is the KEY to getting EV out on the roads.  I’m very confident that $KNDI (by partnering with Geely- one of the largest car manufacturer in China) will succeed in leaps and bounds in this car-sharing direction.

$XONE continued to head higher today and I like to see it take out $100 next year.

Price has finally bounced away from the 79& 89 MA lines with the 5 MA pointing up.

$GALE is another speculative bio-tech I like that may flourish in 2014.  Today small increase continued to support the current consolidation instead of developing a downward trend.

The underlying tone, as can be seen by the two momentum indicators below as well as the 5 MA line starting to point up, is still bias on the long side.  I can see price pop either into the year-end or early next year.

Thanks to $INO, $KNDI, $XONE, and $GALE, my portfolio has another healthy gain today.

Current holdings:

LRAD, KNDI, KGJI, CERS, INO, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY (fully speculated).

My 2 cents.

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It was quite a strange morning.  The leaves were wavering a little harder, the fallen leaf flew a little further out, and most important of all, my eyes were bombarded by flying tiny debris such that I had to squint to see what kind of wind was blowing my way…

Being in a twilight state of consciousness, the winds formed into the shape of an animal… and the horns looked familiar… OMG! they were bull’s horns.  The image was like a slow motion replay of a bull stampede scene  you saw in Lone Ranger movie.  Because they were winds, the bulls ran right through me as if I was merely a shadow of the nearby tree.  From my vantage point, I could see the burned mark on one of the bull.  It was branded at $INO.

The gust of $INO was getting ready to stampede!  I immediately checked the price.  It was printing over $1.30 by the time I checked the screen.  I could sense this move had a malevolent tone and the desperation in the price action was quite palpable.  Without hesitation, I clicked on the buy button again, again, again, and again.  The fills were completed in a stair-step fashion with each fills higher than the others.

Then I wait.

Price action did not falter.  Not only did price action take out the yesterday high, it took out $1.50 resistance.  And for that, I added more.

By day end, the gust of $INO has taken my position to $1.68.

The interesting part about my hitching the gust of $INO today was that I was just getting off the gale of $NUGT.  $NUGT’s gale had taken me for a ride from the bottom of the valley to the top of mountain where I could see the $100 roll dangling outside my reach.  There were magic involved for I had started off at low $5.xx at the beginning of the ride.  Out of nowhere, the ETF master flipped the wand and I was seeing $98.xx!  As I reached out to the $100 roll, the gale suddenly dissolved into a tepid breeze and I was left standing at $89.6x.  So much for the $100 roll.

Without missing a step, I’m now riding the gust of $INO.  How far can I ride this gust?  Will it even head in the same direction tomorrow?  I sure do hope so.  I could feel the energy.  I could hear the crying.  I believed they were the cry of the shorts being squeezed.

Holy Cow!  The Gust of $INO might just continue to fly straight ahead on the back of the short-squeezed runaway…  YEOWWWWEEE!  “The pain!  The pain!” uttered the shorts…

My 2 cents…

 

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Last time I posted on $INO, it broke out of the 1st gate with a big bang with super-high volume.  Since then, it took a breather for a week.  Now, it is gunning for the 2nd gate.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:

The momentum is still strong by the look of it.  Price action is getting close to taking out the high from 2-1/2 years ago.

Below is the monthly chart:

If the 2nd gate is taking out, the 3rd gate at $3.40 will be the next target.

Fundamentally speaking, $INO has been issuing various positive preclinical test results based on its synergy of using its patented electroporation technology with synthesis DNA vaccine.  The implication of these results, if proven later in Phase II and Phase III trials, is that this disruptive medical technology may render cancer disease to the level of small pox, polio, etc.  In other words, cancer and  deadly influenza may be much easier to cure and control than before.

The next milestone that may either solidify or discredit $INO technology will be the Phase II Cervical dysplasia (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or CIN) caused by HPV trial result that is expected to release in the 1st quarter of 2014.

If the trial result proves positive, we will indeud be witnessing the ultimate breakout of stock price in the history of the stock market.  Pardon my excitement.  On the other hand, significant loss can result if the trial result proves negative.  At the end of the day, it is the ultimate gambling bet.

Currently, $INO is my 2nd largest position.  I may or may not adjust my position size before the Phase II trial result.

My 2 cents.

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I’m betting that it is.

Let’s start with the weekly chart:

Last week breakout bar had massive volume of 23 million shares; while the inverted hammer candlestick of last week was not convincingly bullish; this week up bar clear up last week indecision.  Today is only the 2nd day of the week and volume has already exceeded half of last week.

Below is the daily chart:

The uptrend looks more straight forward than the weekly chart since you are not looking at the inverted hammer candlestick bar.

The monthly chart below gives you an idea of the possible resistances and potential of future price action.

Did you see how price action has finally broken out of a 2 years consolidation period (from mid-2011 to now)?  Remember the old saying, “the longer the consolidation period, the more powerful is the breakout?”  Does this old saying apply to $INO?

I’ve placed my bet that $INO can be the mother-of-all biotech speculation with a high reward/risk ratio at this level.

Fundamentally speaking, $INO is pushing synthetic DNA vaccines into the new frontier of biotech discovery.  $INO has come a long way in researching on this field and 2013-2014 may be the years of acknowledgement that this science actually works (or not).  So far, the data are encouraging; however, the caveat is that these data are from preclinical and Phase I results.  Between now and 2014, results from various Phase I to Phase II trials will either propel $INO to much higher price or send it back to oblivion.

The risk is high and so is the reward.  If there is such a thing as mother-of-all biotech speculation, this is it.  And this is definitely not for the faint of heart.

My 2 cents.

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