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Tag Archives: $IBIO

10-13-2014 Trading Journal

And the bear kept on dragging down the bull…

SPY_Daily

Price is now in the neutral zone (the tan rectangular box).  This is the same area the market struggled b/w March and June before breaking out to the upside.  I didn’t like the fact that the double bottom couldn’t hold.

I was curious about how $IBIO would open.  I was pleasantly surprised that pre-market was up $1.30 (88%).

“Take the money!” I shouted at myself.

Then I realized I could not get out even if I wanted to ’cause my cash account does not allow pre-market or after-hour trading.  So, I crossed my finger hoping the pre-market high would hold thru the opening bell.  No such luck.

Then I had to witness the falling prices (from $2.7x to below $2.3x) in the last five minutes before the opening bell.

“Take the money anyway”  I told myself.

So I put the market order in and sold the rest of my $IBIO at the open.

Why didn’t I wait?

That was because I’d seen too many times where price gapped up and then would spend all day falling back down.  I decided to take the money and saved myself the grief and anxiety of worrying about giving back profit when I wasn’t looking.  I actually felt a sense of relief after taking profit.  In biotech, there is no telling when price will turn on a dime and simply take away your paper gain in a NY minute.  I’ve overstayed too many times and experienced enough vanishing profit to appreciate a generous gift when it appeared without notice.  Sure, price may continue higher but I leave it to those who can bear the pressure.

IBIO_daily

That was a really nice gap up.  Let’s just hope there is no gap down tomorrow for the sake of those who are still holding.

Today, four out of six positions went up. Unfortunately, $LRAD was not able to maintain gain in the last hour market avalanche.

$CERS finally turned green so I didn’t need to cut losses.  $DMRC and $ORBC were able to maintain most of its gain for the day despite the market waterfall.

The gains from $IBIO, $DMRC, $ORBC, and $CERS were able to offset $LRAD drawdown and still  have a gain of 2.2% for the day with YTD gain at 2.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, CERS, AMRN and 10.5% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

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10-10-2014 Trading Journal

The bear wasn’t done yet and the bull could not climb against a slippery slope.

SPY_Daily

Nevertheless the bull may have a resting place to pause and possibly to bounce as well.  Notice that price today closed right at the August low which is now a support or a double-bottom.  There is a 50/50 the bull may bounce next week.

With fortune blessing, I’d a good day today.  It all started with my attention on $IBIO yesterday.  A small voice in the back of my head said, “Hey, load back $IBIO at 70 cents with the cash you got from selling $KNDI and $CERS.”

But I wasn’t ready to load up on a hi-beta biotech stock in the middle of a down day when my port was getting hammered.  So I passed.  But when I noticed that $IBIO opened higher (> 90 cents) this morning, I checked for news and there were none.  Then I checked for the latest Ebola news to see if this virus had been contained.  It is not.  The guy in Texas died.

“Somebody knows something?” I thought to myself.

I waited a minute or two after the open to see if price would sell back down below 90 cents.  Nope.  Then price started to move to 95, 96, 97 in succession.

That is!  I’m going in.

I started buying ’cause my intuition told me price was going to break out $1 very soon.  Resistance developed around 99 cents but I didn’t care, I just kept buying to build my position up.  After I built up to 50% of my original size.  I stopped.  I thought of adding since I still had plenty of cash left.  Then my cautious side told me to spread it to other biotech such as $CERS and $AMRN.  $CERS was bouncing in the morning so I bought back what I sold.  $AMRN was holding strong at 99 cents to a dollar so I checked the script number for the week.  It was up so I bought back in at a dollar.  If script number can climb over 10,000 per week soon, $AMRN at a dollar is a steal.

$IBIO busted out over $1 after I bought what I needed.  It went as high as $1.16 before falling back down to my entry point.

“Get out at breakeven?” I asked myself.

“Nah, hold on.  Remember this is a cash account, once you get out, you can’t jump back in until a few days later.”

“Ok then. Let’s hold a bit longer,”

Then I got busy with other non-trading business.  Lucky thing I did ’cause price went back above $1 and then fell back down to $1 for the 2nd time in the afternoon.  If I was watching, I might be tempted to get out at breakeven giving the general market was fighting to stay positive at the same time.

When I finally get back to watching the market an hour before the closing bell.  I couldn’t believe my eyes.  $IBIO was climbing  and climbing.  By the time it started to correct after trading to the high of $1.39, I was very tempted to sell some to lock in profit.  My finger was at the mouse button ready to push.  Seeing that the general market was literally falling apart, I clicked the mouse button and 50% of my position I bought this morning was let go.  And so I thought I did good.

“Holly Molly!”

Price began to climb again.

I looked at $CERS and it was down.  “Darn, if I bought more $IBIO instead of $CERS, that would be very nice…”

Yeap, like everyone, sometimes I did get infected with the hindsight bug as well.  “Could’ve, should’ve” started invading my mind.  I reminded myself that I was lucky to have the other 50% which represents 25% of my original position.  Meanwhile, all the time, I was mindful that $LRAD was trading in the positive territory most of the day.  I gave my thanks for a fortunate day while partly ignorant that the Nasdaq dropped like a rock to end the week since I was so focused on the after hour trading of $IBIO which traded to a high of $1.91.  Wow!

IBIO_weekly

I’m posting the weekly chart of $IBIO ’cause this is the only way to appreciate the magnitude of the move today.  “If I could be holding my original size all the way…”  Oop! The hindsight bug struck again.  In retrospect, I did what I had to do giving the overall market sentiment.  I already had three long-term hold so locking in profit on a hi-beta biotech stock was the proper thing to do.  Moving on.

I’m thankful for the $LRAD bounce today.

LRAD_daily

See how price actually bounced off the 79 & 89 MA lines?

Giving the severeness of Nasdaq drop today, $ORBC actually was holding well despite being a negative for the day.

ORBC_weekly

Per the weekly chart, price was holding well on the 79 & 89 MA lines.

Although $DMRC was down today, it did not make new low like a lot of tech stocks out there.

DMRC_weekly

From the weekly chart above, you can see that price only gave back some of last week gain.  The action of $IBIO reminds me that as long as the stock has a strong binary event that if positive can move price the way $IBIO did today.  I’ve the conviction and confidence that the big retailers will adopt the Digimarc barcode system simply because of the efficiency factor.  If that positive decision is to materialize, $DMRC will move the way $IBIO did today; perhaps even more stronger.

$CERS was a bad trade today and I should have cut the losses when it didn’t bounce.  I’m going to see what happen on Monday before deciding what to do with it.

Thanks to stellar gain on $IBIO and the bounce from $LRAD, my port gained back 2.9% which put my YTD gain at 0.1%.  In other words, I’m back to breakeven.   Btw, this calculation did not account for after hour gain on $IBIO.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO, CERS, AMRN and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

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10-06-2014 Trading Journal

Market opened higher but slipped on the banana peel once again…

SPY_Daily

Oop! Market landed on its butt; nevertheless, it was keen enough to land on the 89 MA and the trendlines.  As far as I’m concerned, today was a hiccup.

I’d been eyeing $CERS for awhile so I decided to buy when it opened higher.  Despite the immediate drawdown after I bought, I believe this stock is finding its bottom.

CERS_daily

However, I need to see price trades above the 79 & 89 MA lines and not below it.  Let’s see how it fairs this week.

I was surprised to see the strength behind $IBIO and enjoyed the strong rally.  However, being mindful of having gave back gains from $HYGS not too long ago, I decided to become more pro-active in watching the intra-day trend.  After price reached the high of $0.98, I began to watch the 5 & 15 MA lines in the 5 min. chart.  When the 5 crossed below the 15 MA, I started to unload to lock in profit.  When I did not see any meaningful bounce after selling 50% of my position, I began to sell more.  By the day end, I sold 80% of my original position.  Meanwhile, I noticed that $KNDI was rallying hard despite that other stocks were going down.  So, I took the opportunity to use the proceed from $IBIO to buy $KNDI when it started to correct a bit from the afternoon rally.

IBIO_daily

If you ignored the tall candle wick at the top, $IBIO actually had a strong day.  But the sell off after reaching $0.98 was too strong for me to ignore; so I took the opportunity to sell when the volume was there for me to hit the bids.

Seeing the strong afternoon rally in $KNDI, I felt the intuition to buy it.  The daily chart also looked good for a follow-up bounce.

KNDI_daily

The combination of the hooking up of 5 MA lines and the two oscillators below also gave me the confidence to buy.

$DMRC tenacity to stay positive all day was impressive.

DMRC_daily

Notice that the 79 & 89 MA lines are not that far away now.

Unfortunately, $LRAD did not fair well even though it had a great open.  However, I’m not worried about this one at all.

All in all, after adding two stocks today ($KNDI and $CERS), there were only two stocks down in my port.  Thanks to gains from $DMRC and $IBIO, they were enough to offset the drawdown from $LRAD and $CERS to give my port a nice gain of 0.7% with YTD gain at 4.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS, IBIO (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

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10-03-2014 Trading Journal

The market took a V-shape bounce and confirmed a bullish hammer reversal candlestick pattern.

SPY_Daily

The good news is that price is now back above both the 89 MA line and the 5 MA line.  Next week will determine if this bounce can put the bull back in charge.  In other words, today price action has put the bull back in even ground against the bear.  It is now 50/50 for either direction from a short-term perspective.  From a long-term perspective, the bull is still in charge as shown in the weekly chart below:

SPY_Weekly

The long-tail doji reflected a pattern of “pausing” if you looked at the previous weekly bars on chart.  Thus, I say the probability of a continuing bull move up is high.

Today, $LRAD made up for yesterday’s lack of movement.

LRAD_daily

As you can see, price is now above both the 5 and 15 MA lines with the 5 in the process of crossing over the 15.  This is very bullish.  If price can move over $3 next week, price may test the previous high of $3.88.  The weekly chart below shows a even more favorable odd of a continuing bounce.

LRAD_weekly

Notice price bounce off the  weekly 15 MA line.

$DMRC was able to hold its gain from yesterday.  It was a worthy battle b/w the bull and the bear and the volume reflected it.

DMRC_daily

Price needs to move above the 79 & 89 MA lines soon to get back on the bull side.  Meanwhile the weekly chart shows a beautiful bullish engulfment candlestick bar that reflected a strong tendency to bounce from here.

DMRC_weekly

Perhaps, next week it will take out the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$ORBC, like $DMRC, was able to fight off the bear to hold the gain from yesterday.

ORBC_daily

Price still need to work hard to get back above the 79 & 89 MA lines to maintain a strong bullish outlook.  Giving the confirmation of a bullish hammer reversal pattern here, I say the probability of a continuing bounce is good.  The weekly chart below reflected the determination of the bull to get back on track.

ORBC_weekly

See how price is now back on top of the 79 & 89 MA lines; based on the magical quality of these two MA lines, $ORBC is going to bounce from here.

$IBIO was also able to fight off the bear and closed higher.

IBIO_daily

Price is now looking like a potential double-top.  Not necessarily a good sign; however, if you look at the weekly chart below, price definitely look like it is going to take out the January high of 0.85 soon.

IBIO_weekly

See how the weekly bar closed much higher than the 89 MA line?  Notice how all the weekly MA lines are either in the process of pointing up or already pointing up. We may see price trading over $1 soon.

As you can see from the daily charts above, all four of my positions were up today.  My port gained back another whopping 4.2% with YTD gain at 4.2%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO and 5.5% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

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10-02-2014 Trading Journal

The market took a dip but made a gallant came back to close even for the day.

SPY_Daily

It was a much needed bounce to put a pause to the falling market.  Let’s see if it can take out today high tomorrow.

Meanwhile my port bounced strong for the day. Two of the four bounced 16% each with the third one up 4%.  For some reason, $LRAD did not participate in the bounce even though it announced new sales on their mass notification system.

$DMRC is finally initiated by Ladenburg Thalmann as a buy.  Price bounced hard with a 16.8% gain.

DMRC_daily

With a big green bar and high volume, we might just see the bottom here.  Shall it head back up now?  With November approaching, the investors are all wondering which one of the Big 5 retailer is testing the Digimarc barcode.  A positive response from this big retailer will send this stock much higher.

The next 16% club member is $IBIO.  The story is that Caliber Biothjerapeutics, a partner with $IBIO, is in negotiation to produce Ebola vaccine.  As in any story, price can only continue higher if there are follow-up with a contract.  We will see if that is the case.  One of the reason I like $IBIO is because its science and technology will allow vaccine to develop much more faster to keep pace with the threat.

IBIO_daily

Chart looks good so far even though some sell-off at today high brought the gain back down to a still respectable 16%.

Follow behind the 16% club is the 4% single member- $ORBC.

ORBC_daily

I like the fact that today took out the high of yesterday which may form a bullish hammer reversal pattern.

Thanks to the above three stocks, my port gained back a whopping 4.9% which put my port back to breakeven for the YTD with three months left to make some solid gain.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO and 5.7% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

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09-17-2014 Trading Journal

Market had a moment of clarity after bouncing on the trampoline for a day.

SPY_Daily

Price formed a doji candlestick which can represent either a pause or a top.  We will find more clue tomorrow.

$IBIO continued to surge ahead but gave back some gain before closing.

IBIO_daily

It was still a decent up day. So far, the run up is all technical and I still haven’t heard any news that may give some clue of the run-up.  Somebody out there may know something or there may be a buy-out waiting to happen. Regardless, I’m going to hold on to the position to see where it can take me.  It reminds me of $INO when it was under $1 before the reversed split.

When I saw $AMRN started to bounce instead of falling nonstop, I bought about a third of my original position just so I can watch it daily.  If script number can increase weekly, we may see a slow climb back over $2.00.

$HYGS finally bounced back some while $DMRC fell back along with $LRAD. $ORBC small drop I considered a non-event.

Today, the gains from $IBIO and $HYGS helped offset the losses from $LRAD and $DMRC so it was a breakeven day.  YTD gain remains at 5.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO, HYGS, AMRN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

Still holding $LRAD and $FITX.

My 2 cents.

 

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09-16-2014 Trading Journal

The market popped back up like a basketball slipping out of a bear hand from under the water.

SPY_Daily

And the bear thought they had the bull under submission.

Along with the general market, four out of my five positions bounced as well.

I was corrected to buy ahead of the cup & handle breakout of $IBIO.  As I read up more on the science behind $IBIO and the fundamental development of its business model, I like it so much that I started to increase my position through out the day.  By the time I was done, I’ve doubled my original position.  And as luck would have it, price started to climb above my entry point and broke out of the cup & handle pattern to the upside.

IBIO_daily

The good news is that price was able to close above the breakout point.  I don’t know if we will have news coming out but I can see that the technology and science behind $IBIO is beginning to mature into functional use.  And with the potential behind it, the microcap status ($45 million only!) of this company put $IBIO in a massive undervalued situation.  This may turn out to be much better than $AMRN in term of potential return on my money.  We will see.

To make this a quick journal, suffice to say that $LRAD, $DMRC, and $ORBC all bounced nicely.  Oh, I forgot to mention that the news of the successful operation of the newly launched satellites failed to move $ORBC higher yesterday.  This might have to do with the Nasdaq melt-down yesterday.  I believe price will begin a slow climb from here.  Thus, I added a tag more today.

$HYGS was disappointing but my position was already pared down to 20% of my original size so the drawdown wasn’t so bad.

Thanks to $IBIO and three of my stocks, my port gained back 2.5% today with YTD gain at 5.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO, HYGS, and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

 

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09-15-2014 Trading Journal

Today was a two faces market day.

SPY_Daily

While the $SPY showed a normal neutral day that closed at the support line, Nasdaq was getting beat up in the backyard.

Hey, I was among those getting beat up as well.  I got punched in the stomach and a huge slapped across the face that made me feel like stars were spinning above my head.  I couldn’t see straight when I looked at my portfolio.

All my positions were underwater.  Although I had the good sense to unload more of $HYGS when it traded below $20, it didn’t do much help when the rest of the team were all falling by the wayside.  Being a stubborn man that I can be sometimes, I decided to add a bit more $LRAD near the $3 level.  There is simply too much potential big orders in the cards that I’ve plenty of conviction to buy here with free cash available.  And by doing so, I’m at risk of making $LRAD an oversized and overweighted position in my portfolio.  Such is my confidence in $LRAD.

LRAD_daily

Chartwise, the only good thing I can see here is that price bounced off the lower band of the Bollinger bands.  Statistically speaking, there is a good chance it may bounce from here.  Bounce or not, I’m comfortable holding $LRAD thru volatility thru the 4th Quarter waiting for news.

I also bought $IBIO to replace $AMRN in the biotech department.

IBIO_daily

Chartwise, it sure looks like a possible cup and handle breakout coming soon.  Of course, we are suppose to play it AFTER the cup & handle breakout; but I’m more aggressive so I’m buying ahead of the breakout.  I must be crazy to buy when buildings were collapsing around me.  But $IBIO seemed to hold quite well in today price action.

Fundamentally speaking, I like to think of $IBIO being a better cousin of $INO.  Both deal with vaccine technology.  Potentially, there are massive upside as well as downside from dilution.  Take your pick.

After the dust settled, my port took a 4.7% hit and YTD gain is now at 3.3%.  Nevertheless, despite current stormy climate, I still believe I may close the year with a respectable return.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, HYGS, IBIO and 10% cash.

My 2 cents.

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