The market had a yoyo day… uip and down and up again.

Thanks goodness it closed on the higher side.  Today action meant that the bull hasn’t given up yet.  The uptrend is still on and the 79 & 89 MA lines are still trending higher.

Today, I continued to add to $AMRN position due to the fact that Pfizer is in take-over mood.  Not that it will buy out $AMRN but it may put other potential buyers in the mood.  I’m also thinking that monthly script may start to increase as a result of the partnership with Kowa Pharmaceuticals America Inc.

From the look of the chart, today bounce offsets Friday drop and keep the price above the support established back in late January. Let’s see if price can get back to the $2 area.

I also bought a starter position on $KNDI for the bounce after the collapse at the open.  The bounce was good but it didn’t last.  I was stopped out for losses since it was meant to be a swing trade instead of a buy and hold.

I also added to $APRI.  As long as price did not take out the lower half of the April 16th long green bar, this one has the potential to take out the resistance at $2.6x.

However, from the chart point-of-view, it has mixed signals.  Price staying above the 89 xma and the 20 MA line is a good sign but the momentum indicators below all point to possible over-bought.  I added more simply because $APRI is finally shipping their products.

I bought back $CERS here ’cause it looked like a formation of a double-bottom here.

From the chart, you can see the current double-bottom support goes all the way back to July of last year.  I expect this support to hold.  If price bounces from here, I may add more.  Earnings is coming out on May 1st and I feel that any bad news is already baked in the downdraft for the last two months.  So, the probability of bouncing is good.

$DMRC looked like it wanted to bounce so I added a bit more.

Today price action closed above Friday high which boded well for the bull side.

Despite some gains, losses from $KNDI and $SEED put my port at breakeven for the day.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, AMRN, SEED, CERS, APRI and 14% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX continued higher and closed right on the resistance line.  It really doesn’t matter where price close these days ’cause the real key here is to get the license approval from Health Canada.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Market broke out of the consolidation range and headed higher.

This definitely looked good for the rest of the week.  The next resistance is the previous high established in March 21st which when you think about it is not that long ago.  How price reacts to the old high will be telling…

$KNDI opened lower due to Cramer’s warning of “sell, sell, sell…”

Regardless of whether Cramer is right or wrong on his analysis of $KNDI, the last thing I wanted to do is to stand against his selling recommendation.   Thus, I sold in the morning not long after the open to cut my losses.  Although if I waited a bit longer, I could sell at close to breakeven; but one would never know if price would continue on a big waterfall or bounce, so it’s pointless to regret any action of cutting losses.

Next, with the free-cash made available from the three-day settlement, I added to $SVA, $SEED, and $AMRN.

$AMRN spiked up due to news of a co-promotion agreement with Kowa Pharmaceuticals America, Inc.  Hey, at this point, any co-working relationship with any pharmaceuticals is a plus. Thus I added more.

Notice price opened higher and closed around the same area.  I like to see price takes out the previous high of $1.97 and then $2.00 from there.  Perhaps, just perhaps, I may be able to recover my previous losses on $AMRN; however, I’m not holding my breath for this.

$SEED took out yesterday high and I added more; but price closed below yesterday high.  I’m still holding my added shares.

$SVA opened higher and I added more as well.

Chart looked good so far with today price closed higher than the 5 MA line.  I like to see price takes out last Friday high.

Meanwhile, $CARA continued upward and put my position back in positive territory.

$CARA next resistance is the last pivot high of $20.40 established on 03/19/2014.

Despite a down day on $SVBL, my port continued to move up another notch thanks to $CARA, $AMRN, and $SVA.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SVBL, CARA, SEED, AMRN, SVA and 27% cash.

From my other account:

While $FITX ended the day slightly negative, $MCIG had a good bounce day.

I like the fact that price $MCIG price closed higher than the highs of the last five trading days.  Looking good so far.

My 2 cents.

 

Comments »

The market bounced hard in the morning but went out of air later in the day.  Nevertheless, it still closed up for the day.

You could see that it was a soft bounce. We need to see the market bounces hard next week to stop this bear attack from taking over the trend.  Based on after hour market on a Sunday afternoon, look like we may see a bounce coming.  But then, we all know too well that these bounces must stay firm at the close to consider a good bounce.  How the market closes tomorrow (Monday) may determine the tone for the rest of the week.

What I had done today (Friday) was a mixed bag of satisfaction and disappointment.  More like getting satisfaction in the morning and then being slapped with disappointment.

$KNDI opened higher and I immediately added more to average up.  Price continued to head higher and I added more.  By the time price broke out of the $17 resistance, I added even more.  My profit was immediate and it was looking good.  But then price began to correct below $17.00.  I continued to hold to see if it would bounce back above $17.  It did.  I relaxed a bit.  But the hold above $17 didn’t last.  Before I knew it, price fell back down below $17 and I wanted to see if it would re-bounce later; unfortunately, while I was waiting, price began to collapse like a waterfall and before I knew it, I was no longer in the money but was shown a little red.  Without hesitating too much, I began to liquidate some of my position to decrease risk and exposure.  Price continued to head lower and I decided to just dump the whole position ’cause I didn’t like the way price fell down so quickly from the $17.00.  Thus, from the morning of sitting on a nice profit to the liquidation of my position with a small losses, it was quite a ride.  By day close, price closed a bit below my last exit point.

See how price collapsed in mid-day in the 5m chart above?  It was a heady ride.  While I still believe in the fundamental story of $KNDI, I’m being mindful of the overall market correction which if the bear wins, everything will go down regardless of fundamental story.

Next, I bought back $SEED, $AMRN, $CERS, and $MZOR positions.

What?! $CERS again with the $40 million  potential dilution?

Yes, I asked myself the same question… but all I could say was that I couldn’t resist the morning chart pattern which was showing a bounce from a “almost” doji bar the day before.  Due to the fact that I closed out the $CERS position (again!) with another small losses before day close, I guess the “almost” doji bar did not offer a good probability here.

I bought $AMRN ’cause the chart looked like a breakout bounce was about to happen.

Thursday bar was a bullish engulfment candlestick bar; therefore, I decided to give this one another roll of a dice.  Thanks to Option Addict’s post about asshole stocks, it brought my attention back to $AMRN which was when I saw the bullish engulfment bar.  By day close, I’m still holding so let’s see if price can bounce next week.

Next I bought some $MZOR back due to a bounce at the open.

Since I still like the fundamental story, I was betting on the fact that the Thursday dramatic drop was over-done.  If price takes out the low of Thursday low, I will cut my losses.

$CARA dropped was expected due to earning report from Thursday night; however, I was just glad that the drop was not worse than I anticipated.  I believe $CARA has the potential to rally later in the year simply because the fundamental story has an excellent catalyst to be disruptive in the field of narcotic pain-killer.

Notice that the price action on the daily chart was stabilizing despite a down day.  If the general market recovers, I can see $CARA bounce higher as well.

Thanks to $LRAD uptake on Friday, my port was at breakeven despite $CARA being down.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SVBL, CARA, SEED, AMRN, MZOR and 32% cash.

From my other account:

Both $FITX and $MCIG charts reflected a small correction; thus, I’m not going to bother with the showing of the charts.  Still holding long and strong.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Let me start off this post with a quote from Calvin Coolidge:

Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

In hindsight, we know the market has marched on ahead in an upward, albeit in a wavy manner, direction in the year of 2013; nevertheless, my personal path to achieving stock market gain was an uphill battle fraught with potholes and slippery slopes.

Potholes I fell into in 2013:

• $ECTY- large losses (company filing bankruptcy)
• $ETRM- medium losses (failed Phase III study)

Slippery slopes I encountered:

• $AMRN- large losses (you know the story)
• $USU- large losses (I bailed before the reverse split and the ensuing gigantic rally afterward)
• $SZYM- medium losses (whipsawed from over-trading in downtrend market)
• $APRI- medium losses (holding against a downtrend and gave up before the recovering year-end rally)
• $NCTY- medium losses (mistake in betting big on a thinly traded and small float stock)

Despite the multiple losses I endured from the above trades, they were all managed losses.  In other words, I didn’t let these losses get out of control by averaging down.  While some of the losses were large, it was because I made the initial large bet to begin with and not as a result of averaging down   While I had suffered mental frustration with these controlled losses (who wouldn’t?), I did not wallow in self-pity, I got back up and moved on.  I am persistence because I know I can get my money back as long as I’ve my capital intact.  It is a matter of being perseverance in searching for the stocks that will give me back the money and more.

Sidebar: It is extremely important that you manage your losses according to sound money management principle.  If I had not managed my losses, I would not be able to recover no matter how persistence I could be.  The rule of trading world is that you MUST protect your capital to fight another day.  My trading style is focused on finding the hi-beta stocks that will give me the jackpot I’m looking for; thus, I know I’ve to take some hits from time-to-time.   While this has been my endeavor, I’m still developing and evolving as a trader; therefore, trading mistakes were made (as in $SZYM, $APRI, and $NCTY) and I’m learning from them.

Having covered my losses, let’s go over my wins!

• $KNDI- very large gain
• $INO- very large gain
• $LRAD- large gain
• $GALE- medium gain
• $GOGO- medium gain
• $NUGT- medium gain
• $CERS- medium gain
• $CLIR- medium gain

My biggest win in 2013 was $INO. Upon hearing about $INO, I did my research but was initially skeptical since stock price had been trading below below $1.00 for first half of the year. But when price started to climb to near dollar, I began to take notice of a possible breakout.  Then the proliferation of positive preclinical news came into the foreground.  With price advancing over $1, I began to average UP.  Not only that, I kept averaging up on each bounce up after a brief consolidation; by the time price reached $3, I was sitting on such huge gain it would be foolish not to lock in profit especially when I knew the preclinical trials result was still a long way to human trials.  In other words, the price went up too far too fast.  I exited about 80% of my position at an average price of $2.75 and the rest in mid-to-low $2.xx.  It was a very profitable trade.

$KNDI was a trade I found after I got burned by $ECTY.   Despite the punch on the stomach (figure-of-speech), I refused to give up my beliefs in the potential of EV.  $TSLA has pretty much convinced me that EV does have a place in our society after my few failed attempts to short $TSLA with put option.  My shorting $TSLA was based on simple assumption that the market cap had gone too far ahead of the fundamental; however, when I saw the actual Tesla Model S in the showroom and the elegant and simple design of the electric motor compared to the complicated ICE (internal combustion engine); I was sold on the concept of EV.

Tesla high-end car succeeds because Elon Musk knows that the top 10% of the wealth will buy the car if it looks nice and function perfectly.  And when Consumer Reports magazine gave the Tesla Model S the highest score in its Ratings: 99 out of 100 back in July, I knew then that EV is here to stay.

However, the only problem is that if $TSLA, the only EV with a much longer driving range on a single charge than its cheaper competition, already captured the top 10% wealth; who will buy the cheaper EV models with shorter range?  Hence my belief that $ECTY was the key solution to expanding the EV market for cheaper EV models.  Little did I know that $ECTY was so badly managed, despite its being the company chosen by US Department of Energy to spearhead the charging station project, that I promptly lost 80+% of my investment in a single day after $ECTY made an announcement of its major issues.

Still very much believing in the EV potential and that $ECTY mismanagement did not equal to EV failure, I kept on researching for the next EV stock to speculate.

Then I found $KNDI.

What tickle me the most about $KNDI is that it is not selling directly to the consumer which I know will not work because of the range anxiety.  Without the proliferation of charging station everywhere, it will be difficult for an accelerated growth in consumer buying.  But $KNDI is offering a solution that automatically solves the range anxiety issue; not only that it also solves the charging station issue as well.  By embracing the concepts of car-to-go and zipcar except that the EV must be returned to the garages strategically located at multiple fixed locations for recharging purposes, $KNDI found an optimal solution to the range anxiety and battery dilemma in the EV market.  What is more important is that consumers do not need to buy the car but simply rent them for a very low price that is cheaper than hiring a taxi.

At the time when I found $KNDI, price was trading around $5 after it came back down from a quick run to $8.  Because of the secondary offering after the spike to $8, the stock was mercilessly attacked by the short.  On top of that, the uncertainty from having to  wait for the new China EV subsidies that had yet to be announced only added fuel to the short.

Hmmm….

Instead of going away like most everyone because of the history of bad blood from some stock scams from China, I began to see this as an opportunity to buy when it was still cheap.  After reading all the due diligence performed by other $KNDI believers and compared them to those who short, my own analysis prompted me to start building a position in $KNDI.  While I was building my position, $KNDI was trading in a tight range b/w $4.50 and $5.50.  Plenty of patience was required on my part.

The good thing about having a large position on a stock is that you tend to watch its trading pattern very closely on a daily basis.  And when price crossed back over the 79 & 89 MA lines to the upside, I could sense a coming rally.  Thus, I decided to buy a boatload of Dec $7.50 call to supplement my stock position.  As luck would have it, right after I had bought the options, the stock became a runner the very next day.  When price reached $9 and started to reverse direction, I had the good sense to lock in profit on 70% of my option trades.  The rest I gave back to the market when it expired worthless.  Having exited most of my option trades, I decided to reduce my stock position as well to lock in profit.  My swing trade mentality was in full-swing.

From then on, I bought and sold $KNDI to supplement my core position without success for two months.  In fact, my realized gain was slowly leaking thru the multiple whip-saws from my trading in-and-out of the trading position. And then the news of Geely announcing to the public that it would have the EV version of the London black taxi available in five years.  That was all I needed to hear to double-down on $KNDI.  After the Geely announcement, I knew it was time to stop swing trading $KNDI.  Why did I feel that way?  It was the subtle message from Geely that it is committing to the EV market; otherwise, why made such a bold statement?  With $KNDI being in a 50/50 joint venture with Geely for the sole purpose of building EV cars, $KNDI has a LOT to gain from this announcement.

Again, I was correct in my assessment; thanks to my double-down on $KNDI, my gain was quite phenomenon in the last week in 2013.

Sidebar: Performing daily homework in researching for potential runner is the discipline that keeps me going forward.  And I’m not just talking about picking up stock ’cause so and so says he/she is buying.  I need to analyze the fundamental and decide if the stock has the “story” as well as a chart pattern to support it before I venture in.  If you are willing to do YOUR own analysis and homework on a stock regardless where you hear it from, the stock will become YOUR own pick; not someone pick.  And you will trade this stock according to YOUR trading strategy; not someone’s.  The benefit of doing YOUR own analysis is that you will LEARN from your mistake and grow as a trader. Otherwise, you will never grow as a trader if all you do is to follow someone pick.

My purpose of writing about my thought process in my $KNDI and $INO trades is to emphasize the importance of doing your own research.  By doing your own research, you will get a much better sense of the stock and how it is trading.  If you are the more risk-taking type, you may even augment your position size like I’ve done with $INO and $KNDI.

$GOGO came to mind as another perfect example.  After The Fly made the call on $GOGO, I began to research the stock and like what I saw.  Then I started to build up my position based on my analysis of the chart-pattern.  In other words, I began to trade $GOGO irrespective of what The Fly was doing with his $GOGO position.  If you do your own homework, you make the stock your own and you only have yourself to blame if the stock doesn’t perform.  This is the ONLY way you can learn and grow as a trader.

To conclude my post, despite having my portfolio down in the middle of the 2013 due to my losses mentioned above, I was able to climb back out of the hole and ended the year in a very positive note.

Due to my evolving as a trader, I am now focused on shepherding my current portfolio of nine hi-beta stocks for the potential run-up in 2014.  Holding on to a winning position for as long as I can is the only way to make the big bucks.  I like to see all nine of my stocks, if possible, to run the way $LNG and $CLDX ran in 2013 (both of these stocks I used to own but got out way too early!)

Current holdings:

$KNDI – I believe $KNDI will dominate in China with its business model of selling to the car-sharing garages.

$LRAD – I believe its newly minted mass-notification technology will dominate the replacement of the obsolete bullhorn speaker notification system worldwide.

$KGJI- I believe that the new wealth in China will increase consumers’ crave for 24K gold products that $KGJI will have blow-out quarter-to-quarter revenues that price has no choice but to keep going up.

$CERS- I believe that FDA will approve $CERS blood purification system.  Why?  ’cause they are selling them to Europe already without any issues.

$INO- I am “betting” that $INO has finally tweaked its synthetic DNA enough to work in human.

$GALE- I believe its Astral drug will sell well quarter after quarter.  I’m also “betting” that its NeuVax breast cancer treatment will succeed.

$XONE- I believe its 3D manufacturing machines will become dominant in the manufacturing sector.

$AMRN- I believe FDA will meet $AMRN half-way on its Vascepa label expansion.

$TINY- I believe that its portfolio of private investment in multiple nanotechnology companies will take fruition in 2014.

I wish everyone a happy and prosperous New Year!

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Folks, we are heading into Oct 16th FDA advisory committee meeting.  Place your chips either at the center of the table or put it back into your pocket.  As for myself, I moved a sizable amount into the center.

Well, what cards do I have that I’m willing to risk such amount on this $AMRN bet?  you may wonder.

Here are my cards:

I’ve been taking Vascepa everyday (4 grams a day) since March.  Although I was fearful of the large size of the capsule in the beginning, now I’m looking forward to taking them at meal time.  Believe me when I said it is actually my body that looks forward to taking Vascepa.  Despite its large size, I swallowed the pill as if it was nothing.  It went down my throat smoothly with no reflex of gagging as some might have feared.  I can see that $AMRN is using the best quality capsule to contain the EPA ingredient inside which make it so much easier to swallow.  I had swallowed over-the-counter (OTC) fish oil capsules before and I can tell you the quality of the capsule used by Vascepa is far superior.

Why would my body looked forward to taking the capsules?  I believe because the EPA ingredient in Vascepa is doing something good inside my body.  So far, I’ve no side-effect whatsoever from the months of taking Vascepa.  My latest blood test from my doctor has reflected significant improvement on my trig level.  And I’m feeling fine where my heart is concerned.

Is it psychological that I’m looking forward to taking Vascepa or is it really my body who craves it?  Does it really matter?  When you think about this, you know I will always get my refill.  Imagine all the other people who is taking Vascepa or is going to be taking Vascepa feel the same way that I’m feeling.  Go figure.

Next, why will FDA Advisory committee meeting have anything against a specialized fish-oil with high concentration of EPA that can provide the benefits that over-the-counter fish oil cannot?  Think about this, by taking a favorite stance on Vascepa on the Anchor indication, FDA may be encouraging people to stay away from the OTC fish oils with questionable purity and go for the healthier fish-oil that have been proven in Phase 3 trials with multitude of benefits.

Have you been to Costco lately?  If you wander into the aisle where the Omega-3 fish oils are stocked, you will be surprised how many different brands of Omega-3 are available.  In other words, there are huge demand for Omega-3 fish oil.   Offer these people a prescription grade Omega-3 fish oil with proven benefits and how many do you think will jump over from OTC brands?

There you have it, my fundamental reason for believing $AMRN’s Vascepa will get a nod from the FDA Advisory committee.  If it is good for the population, why withhold it?  It is my opinion that there is simply no risk for the FDA Advisory committee to clear the road for Vascepa.

Now, take a look at the daily chart:

Currently, from the daily chart, price action has cleared all the MAs (5, 15, 79, and 89).  Price action has obviously taken a positive turn and is on the way to take out the recent high at $7.40.

Now, take a look at the weekly chart:

As you can see, the downtrend line has been broken. Price action has taken out the 5 and 15 SMA lines.  There are two overhead resistances from the 79SMA and 89XMA.  With any good news from the FDA, these two resistances will be taken out quite effectively.

Now, stand back and look at both of the charts again, the daily and the weekly.  Did you see the cup and handle pattern being developed?  Does it look like a break out is about to take place?

Am I crazy to bet big on $AMRN?  Maybe I am; but what is the point of not betting big when I “personally” perceive a statistically advantage here?  After all, isn’t why we “speculate” in the stock market?  Searching for a stock with a probability of making a run to the upside?  To me, it is a calculated risk I’m willing to take.

But don’t forget, I’ve been wrong and have taken big losses before; on the other hands, I’ve also made a few successful bets as well.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

So much for coming in this morning with load of cash on hand.  I’m just thankful that there is no “surprise” news on $AMRN that I’ll be deprived of a reasonable re-entry from zero position.  As luck will have it, I only have to pay a small premium to buy back my core position plus more for swing trade.

Take a look at the daily chart below:

I like the fact that price action has taken out the high of July 2013 at $6.20.  On top of that, price action also took out the 79sma as well as the 89xma.  If price action can maintain momentum, we may have a rally toward the October FDA Advisory Committee meeting that most investors (myself included) are expecting a slam-dunk “clear ahead” for the December FDA decision on approving Vascepa for the mid-trig (200-500) population.  Of course, you also have Adam Feuerstein who holds the opposite opinion of $AMRN getting a nod from the FDA. Who do you believe?

Don’t believe anyone; but believe only on your own research. Read up on the FDA approval process if you are not familiar with it.  You will find that it takes a very long and expensive road for any company to get a prescription drug approved by the FDA.  $AMRN has come a long-way and it is now knocking on the door of FDA for the mid-trig (200-500) level.  Have you seen any other competitors offering the same thing?  Even if there are, they are still a long way before knocking on FDA door. Recent purchase of Omthera by AstraZeneca ($AZN) is an example.

Yes, I’ve been on the wrong side of the track for quite a while with $AMRN but I believe the road is now heading on the right direction. Nevertheless, at this point, I’m watching $AMRN as an intermediate-term trader instead of a die-hard buy and hold investor. In other words, I’m not married to the stock so to speak.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

With $AMRN being the largest position in my portfolio, of course, I’m taking Vascepa for my cardiovascular health.  Why would I buy $AMRN if I don’t believe in the product?

The good news is that after only two months of taking Vascepa (4 grams per day according to recommended dose), my triglyceride level has dropped 46%.  The last time my trig was this low was eleven years ago.  My total cholesterol has decreased 25% without taking statin.  And yes, my LDL level did not go up.

The reason why I want Vascepa so much is because I don’t like to take statin.  My doctor has been recommending me to take statin for the last ten years and I keep avoiding it.  But I know I’ve to take something.  While my total cholesterol is still in need to come down more, I think I will try the natural remedy such as eating more oatmeal and exercise more.  Meanwhile, I will keep taking Vascepa to keep my trig low.

I’m hoping that with more time on my Vascepa therapy, my total cholesterol will continue to come down.  I’ll let you know after another two months.

Today, I did something that I didn’t think I could do.  I literally sold my whole lot of $AMRN just to prove that I could if special situation required it.  Without knowing whether the DOW would drop a like rock after the 7% drop on NIKKEI, I sold with the hope of buying back cheap.  Unfortunately, price did not go any further down after I sold, so I bought my core and swing trade position back.  All at a price higher than I sold for.  And Where are the shorts when I need them?  Go figure.

My 2 cents.

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Most of you all know that I’m long $AMRN from last year and have to sit through the drawdown all because FDA could not decide on the NCE (new chemical entity) status on the almost pure EPA chemical ingredient in $AMRN’s new drug Vascepa.  Month after month of no approval and with $AMRN taking the path to self-distribution of Vascepa instead of going thru the Big Pharmaceutical company, price continued to head south.  It was because I did not average down during the drawdown period that I could tolerate the temporary setback on my long-term position trade.

As in any price movement based on human emotion, there will come a point where a bottom or a top can be called on for a speculative play.  What most people don’t realize is that while picking bottom or top can be akin to playing with fire, it is actually a low risk trade if you’ve done your homework correctly.  Please refer to my past post on the art of catching a falling knife.

Remember this stock market wisdom- Buy low and sell high?

How do you propose to buy low when you are not trying to pick a bottom?

As I mentioned before, the only way I will add to underwater long-term position is when I play the added shares as a swing trade.  Meaning that I will have stops in place to protect myself if price head the wrong way.  These stops are non-negotiable; otherwise, I’ll just be kidding myself into averaging down to my core position.

Last Tuesday when $AMRN announced the FDA has accepted its Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) seeking approval for the marketing and sale of Vascepa^(R) (icosapent ethyl) capsules for use as an adjunct to diet in the treatment of adult patients with high triglycerides (TG >=200 mg/dL, price gapped up but turned around and headed south for a few more days.  I knew then that the bottom was about to set in.   While we won’t hear from FDA regarding the approval of this sNDA until Dec of this year, it is considered a game-changer catalyst that can propel $AMRN to be a very attractive take-over target.

There are support level from Dec 2011 low of $5.99 and price last week has dropped down to low of $6.34 before heading back up.  While I didn’t buy the swing trade position at the low, I bought them around $6.4x.  The way I see it, the risk/reward for the swing trade is excellent.  My stop was below $5.99 and I’m only risking about $0.45 cent per share for a return that has the potential to be multiple times of the risk.

Below is the weekly $AMRN chart.  Notice that last week bar is a doji.  A doji at the bottom near a support has a high probability of forming a bottom.

Below is the daily $AMRN chart.  Notice that today price action has penetrated the downtrend bar.

Needless to say, I’m close to double-up my position on $AMRN with my swing trade position.  If price never look back, these swing trade position will become part of my core position.  Perhaps, this drawdown is really a gift in disguise for me…

My 2 cents.

Comments »

After a strong rally of 200+ points on the DJIA, I find myself 75% invested with 25% cash.

Well, duh!  The good news is that today high took out the high of $143.55 in the week of 5/28/2008.

Take a look at the weekly SPY chart below:  The next few trading days will decide if this May 2008 high will be a resistance to this rally or a support for further end-of-year rally.

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Currently, my biggest position is in AMRN (18% of portfolio).

To iterate, I like AMRN because of their recent FDA approval of their drug Vascepa for the treatment of very high trigylcerides (technical term for cholesterol).   AMRN also has been receiving “allowance” for several patents out of the 25 they submitted.  The speculation here is the potential take over by a major pharmaceutical company for a projected price of $20+ per share.  Because any potential take-over news can be unexpected and sudden, I’m more inclined to give AMRN more room for the price action to jump around.  I’ve been buying and selling AMRN since $12ish so I’m sitting in plenty of profit to cushion the volatility.  But that doesn’t mean I want to give the profit back; nevertheless the reward for a takeover announcement  is more than justifying the risk I’m taking.

Below is the daily chart of AMRN.  Notice the inside green candlestick bar.  I see this has a bullish stance even though it is not a full Harami candlestick formation which required  the previous red bar to be at the bottom of a downtrend.

My 2nd large position is in GLOG (14% of portfolio)

LNG (liquefied natural gas) is here to stay and it is not going away.  Foreign countries will want a lot of cheap LNG from the US and GLOG has the ships (and more new ones to come next year) to handle the extra volume.  I’m also inclined to give this one more room to gyrate around since I’m betting the price to increase gradually as we come close to the launching of the new ships in early 2013.

Below is the daily GLOG chart.  Notice today formed a doji candlestick bar after 4 down days.  A doji after some correction may be a signal for a bottom and a possible reversal.

The rest of my portfolio, in order of size, are the following:

LT equity; SYZM, NFLX, EXEL, FOLD, DNN, CCJ, DVAX, and NPSP.

I bought The Fly’s pick on NFLX because the daily chart of NFLX today has a very nice bullish reversal setup and also a double bottom b/w early August and this week.  Besides my risk is low since my stop will be below the low of Sep 4th.

Remember to follow the price action!

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I’ve to give it to the Bull; today price action is quite a ride from a bear attack to a bear heart-attack!

Below is the SPY daily chart, take a look at the beautiful green bar in today price action.  It took out the lows of the last 2 trading days and then turned around for the greener pasture.  One thing to be aware of is the divergence in the momentum indicator below.

Although I sold a chunk of my AMRN and all of my GLOG this morning; I bought them all back when I saw the intra-day trend change.  I paid only a bit more for GLOG but paid quite a premium to buy back the AMRN shares I sold this morning.  In the scheme of the bigger picture, it is my opinion that the premium I paid to get back on AMRN will be insignificant IF (a big IF) there is a takeover or merger coming in the near term.   The way the price action behaved today, it seems like everyone is gambling that something will happen soon.

Below is the 15m AMRN chart.  I ended up buying back AMRN in the mid-$14 after I sold a bit below $14 in the morning.  Well, that’s the way I have to roll when I’m following price action.

Below is the daily chart of AMRN.  Now, did someone know something?  The way I see it, the chart always give you a head-up.

Currently, I’m 38% invested with 16.7% in AMRN.

Remember, follow the price action!

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