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Trading Ideas

DDD: Cubify = Creativity = Fun = Joy

I believe when DDD starts selling their consumer version of the 3D printer on May 25th, it will surprise everyone how well received this new gadget is.

My take is that not only will the hobbyists be the first to grab them; elementary to college institutions will grab them to for the purpose of encouraging creativity.

Needless to say, I added MORE DDD today!

Good Hunting!

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Bought SINA

Price action for the last 6 days all pointed to a strong support force against the downside move.  Upside motion seems to take over for now.

Good Hunting!

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Short NFLX with June 85 put

This one is easy, there is no presence of “external force” moving against the original downside motion.  I’m going with the flow…

Good Hunting!

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Short AAPL with May 18 $600 Put

By looking at the daily chart, you can see the obvious presence of the “external force” moving against the original up “motion”.

Since I’m in the money, my stop is at breakeven.

Good Hunting!

Ps. My previous AAPL short with May 580 Put was closed before earnings report; I knew better than to gamble on earning report.

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Not all stocks are created equal…

I stripped my portfolio to the barebone core position to lock in some profit, cut out the losers, and raise cash to 45%.

Of course, I’m keeping DDD, SSYS (they seem to be UNSTOPPABLE!!!) and a few other choice selection.

With a “new industrial revolution” postulated by The Economist’s article, I just don’t see how any meaningful correction can take place with DDD & SSYS.  My take is that there are many buyers on the sideline waiting to jump in at any opportunity.  I took profit late last week on my added position in DDD & SSYS but bought them back early this week ’cause the correction I was hoping for did not happen.

Between DDD & SYSS, I can see SSYS being the stronger mover due to the fact that they are merging with Objet.  As an anticipated IPO, I’m sure many were looking to buy into Objet.  The fact that there were no IPO but a merger, to me, is a Godsend for those who doesn’t want to pay thru their nose with the IPO price.

Here is “my” vision…

Imagine factories across the US installed with hundred (if not thousand) of 3D printers… you can see row and row of these printers in different sections of the factories.

Customer 1 called, “I need 3,000 of widget 1 and I need it tomorrow! Can it be done?”

Factory order taker, “I got 500 printers open up this afternoon, I can retrofit these printers to crank out your widget.  Will end of day tomorrow be good enough for you?”

Customer 1 response, “Fantastic!  PO (purchase order) is on the way!”

Voila, just in time manufacturing capability is becoming available for items that normally take months to make.  Overstock inventory will become a thing of the past.  Instead of printing for prototyping, 3D printer can actually prints finished goods!  This is called additive manufacturing.

With the power to keep inventory under control and at a minimum, can you see how “valuable” this 3D printer technology can be?

SSYS may have the potential to be a leader in this regard… but what do I know, I’m buying both DDD & SSYS to cover my bet.

Needless to say, I added more SSYS today.

Good Hunting!

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Short AAPL with May 580 Put

In my opinion, QCOM poor guidance is a tell-tale sign.

If price take out 4-17 low, it is going to trigger a lot of stops…

Good Hunting!

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How I save my ass by not…

averaging down on SZYM.

SZYM is in my vision portfolio and, unfortunately, it was going thru a rough patch the last 2 weeks right after the big jump on the joint venture with Bunge news.  In fact, I reduced my position as the price continued to decline to the downside.

The good news is that because I did not average down, even though I still believe in its future potential, I am not being distracted by the downward move.  The impact of the SZYM negative move is inconsequential to my portfolio.

IMAGINE IF I had averaged down, I would be in a world of hurt and emotional turmoil.  It would tie up my cash and probably even distracted me to focus on DDD and SSYS.

This is the classic example of why I don’t do averaging down..  It just doesn’t pay.

Remember, when you average down (or up), you are adding size.  Don’t you want the market to be in a more favorable term when you are adding size?  Like the trend going in the same direction of your trade you are adding size on?

And look what happened to DDD and SSYS, I kept averaging up when the trend is going up.

Statistically speaking, an upward momentum (or downward momentum) tends to continue the same direction until an opposite force come in to stop the momentum.  This is actually the definition of Newton’s First Law of Motion:

“Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.”

There you have it, these three trades (SZYM, DDD, and SSYS) in my vision portfolio are further proof that averaging down (against trend) doesn’t pay and averaging up (with the trend) gives you a better edge.

Good Hunting!

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The Birth of a Techno-Industrial Revolution

3D Systems’ (DDD) acquisition of Paramount Industries just made me realized we are witnessing a reshaping of our industrial revolution.

It is akin to watching the development of Ford T car assembly line production except that we are talking about something far more advanced.

My take is that the technology behind 3D printer and its direct manufacturing and product development solutions is the wave of the future.  It simply CANNOT be stopped.  You are witnessing the birth of a new techno-industrial revolution, so to speak.

SSYS and DDD, the two MAIN players in the field, provide a dose of healthy competition to each other; it will be interesting to just sit back and watch them grow into GIANT.

Needless to say, I added more SSYS and DDD today, again!

As opposed to buying more when trend is down (averaging down), I’m buying more when the trend is up (averaging up).

Good Hunting!

ps. of course, the above is just my interpretation of the reality… so take it for what it is.

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Added more SSYS & DDD at the open

The merger of SSYS and Objet LTD is an auspicious sign.

I’m averaging UP since my base is lower than my purchase price at the open.

2 years from now, you will look back at today price in amazement…

Good Hunting!

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