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Trading Ideas

I need Silver bullet! (will it cure current werewolfish environment?)

In lieu of silver bullet, I settled for SLV and GLD.  I’m building a small position with a tight stop.  If these metals find bottom, I’ll continue to add if price action support the uptrend momentum.  In other words, I’m pulling my “catch the falling knife” tactic with close stop from my playbook for a spin.

Below is the weekly chart- notice the support from way back in late Dec.

Below is the daily chart- notice the stochastic is now turning up from the bottom.

Good Hunting!

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RIMM is getting reamed!

Short RIMM with June 2012 $11 put.

Chart shows a breakout to the downside.  Looking for sub $10 price soon.

Good Hunting!

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SKF- a reluctant runner?

Please make your own conclusion from the excerpt below.  JPM is “selling protection”… Isn’t that what AIG did with mortgage- selling protection???

If the market tanked due to European nightmare, what do you think will happen to the corporate credit?

I added more SKF today.  It “may” just be a runner if our economy doesn’t show any improvement going forward.   Of course, stops are in place for my own protection.

Good Hunting!

Below is an excerpt from the article: Understanding J.P. Morgan’s Loss, And Why More Might Be Coming

“The passage below comes from the WSJ article:

In recent weeks, hedge funds and other investors have been puzzled by unusual movements in some credit markets, and have been buzzing about the identity of a deep-pocketed trader dubbed “the London whale.” That trader, according to people familiar with the matter, is a low-profile, French-born J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee named Bruno Michel Iksil.  Mr. Iksil has taken large positions for the bank in insurance-like products called credit-default swaps. Lately, partly in reaction to market movements possibly resulting from Mr. Iksil’s trades, some hedge funds and others have made heavy opposing bets, according to people close to the matter… However, Mr. Iksil has turned more upbeat recently. He has been selling protection on an index of 125 companies in the form of credit-default swaps. That essentially means he is betting on the improving credit of those companies, which he does through the index—CDX IG 9—tracking these companies.

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Dead cat bounce, anyone?

What do you see in the chart below?

Since it is “May”, I like to call it a dead cat bounce for today price action; but I’m sure other will see it as an imminent reversal to the upside.  It is all depended on whether the 136 support will hold or not.

Truly, at this point, I rather play safe and sit on the sideline.  If I short, the imminent reversal will spank me silly; and if I long, the conclusion of the dead cat bounce will also spank me silly.  What to do? What to do?  Oh yes! Do nothing.  I prefer to sit on the sideline and let the market tell me what it wants to do next by either crossing the 136 line to the downside or upside.

Just for fun, I dabbled in SKF since JPM is such a bad bad boy!

Good Hunting!

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GMCR- a gift in disguise?

Today morning action is a pleasantly nice surprise.  Instead of an expected avalanche, we have a nice “screw you bear we’re going up!” reaction.

My top pick: GMCR


It has a close pivot low from Friday for a stop that commensurate with the risk I’m willing to take.  In other words, the risk/reward is FANTASTIC!

Good Hunting!

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Month of May – a historical chart review (or how valid is “Sell in May and go away”?)

From the weekly Dow Jones chart; since 2005, there were 4 downtrends and only 3 uptrends for the month of May.  If you looked back at the 4 downtrends, you could see the down weekly bar starting in either the 1st week or 2nd week of May.  Notice that last Friday close actually started off with a down weekly bar.  On top of that, you can see current price action is hovering around the high of May 2nd, 2008 which I see is  a major resistance.

In summary, statistically speaking, the odd is in favor of a bearish stance; therefore, be mindful if you are long.

Note: click on the weekly or monthly chart and then click on 1870 x 973 number right above the chart, the chart will expand to a more comfortable viewing size.

Below is the Dow Jones weekly Chart:

Below is the Dow Jones monthly chart:

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Time of Day- 2:30pm EST (inflection point)

Statistically speaking, 02:30pm is a pivotal point (in time) for either the trend to “continue” or “reverse”.

If the trend continued- possible avalanche.

If reversed, a hammer candlestick bar will look really nice for next week!

Please be mindful…

Good Hunting!

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Best Buy ~ Best Sell?

If the weekly support failed (around 21.79), watch out…

Needless to say, I short BBY.

Good Hunting!


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The Ghost of May

Sell in May and go away

Will this be a self-fulfilling prophecy?  I’m not going to hang around to find out.  Raise cash to 80%.

I re-short the weaker stocks using put option- RIMM & NFLX.

Good Hunting!

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Ain’t gonna argue with the market…

I stripped my DDD & SYSS back to core position.  Took profit on added position.

My greed say “Hang on to your added position!

My inner voice, “Market sentiment is not good.  Everything can go down with it.  Better play safe and be DISCIPLINED!”

My greed say, “Come on now!  3D printer is going to revolutionize the industry!  You gotta to hang on!”

My inner voice, “Tell u what, I get out now (for the added position only) but I promise to buy them back if price bounce back. ok?”

My greed, “I guess so, but you promise!”

Click, click, click, and click!

Done.  Position reduced.

Just another day at the market.

Good Hunting!


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